Category Archives: Wyckoff

Texas Instruments … Implodes

July 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, TXN, Wyckoff

The ‘Go-Forward’, Model?

Is this how it’s going to be when the entire SOXX, A.I. bubble, implodes?

One gap-down, after another?

TXN, earnings, link here, looks benign.

Certainly not anything seen as a material cause for an 11% crash, overnight.

‘Weaker than expected’, does not a forecast, make. Price action could have easily ‘shrugged off’ the ‘weaker than expected’. 🙂

The reality, TXN is down hard with SOXX, down with it.

The probability of reversal for the SOXX, was in price action itself; covered here and here:

This is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

From the 7/15 high, to 7/21, high, was Fibonacci 5-Days.

Stop on short position SOXX-25-07, has been lowered from 250.19, to 246.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Stalls, after Earnings

July 12, 2025 By in Airlines, Artificial Intelligence, DAL, DAL-25-02, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Straight Up, to Resistance

Delta’s latest earnings release provided an excellent opportunity for a ‘changing of hands’.

We’ll have to see what happens next, to verify that premise (not advice, not a recommendation).

In a scene that could be straight out of Livermore and Wyckoff’s observations, the big players need huge volume to enter or exit positions.

For Delta, that volume event was (potentially) last Thursday.

Delta DAL, Daily

Stright up to resistance on massive volume.

Then, the next day, a lower close.

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

As noted, we’re at the 61.8%, retrace of the entire move; January 22nd, highs, to ‘tariff panic’, April 4th, lows.

The initial wave from highs-to-lows, was ‘impulsive’.

Then, and a-b-c, ‘corrective’ wave (labeling not shown), to where we are now.

All of which, brings us to ‘positioning’

Positions

As noted, short this sector as trade DAL-25-02; stop, just above Thursday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

Discretionary exit on SOXX short, SOXX-25-04, at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maintaining Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, with stop lowered to 96.78 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike’s … Terminal Wedge

July 11, 2025 By in Cramer, CRWD, Positions, Richie Naso, SOXX, SOXX-25-03, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Contrary Indicator(s)

Part of the wedge ‘Throw-Over’ as we’ll see in the chart, may have been in response to this, link here.

With the ‘all clear’ going out to millions of ‘investors’, what could go wrong?

Looking at it from a strictly Wyckoff, and chart pattern perspective (a la Richie Nasso), probabilities favor a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close

Price action has entered back into the pattern.

Positioning

No active positions in CRWD … yet.

After yesterday’s trend-break (into the pattern), there’s a possibility for a rally to test.

Other Markets

SOXX short, was re-opened as SOXX-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, remains active, with stop being moved down to (near) the last session high of 96.91 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, at The Edge

July 10, 2025 By in NVDA, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-03, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Thrust Apex?

From the April 7th lows, to now, each successive move higher in the SOXX, has traveled less net distance.

In Wyckoff terms, this type of market behavior occurs near the end of a move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget the up-thrust condition, still in effect, discussed here.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

In a related analysis, the last post on Nvidia had it at Fibonacci Week 144 (-1).

Now, a week later, Nvidia is in Fibonacci Week 144 (from October 2022, lows), posting all-time highs.

Positioning

Short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-03, with stop just above the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: This could be a very short-lived trade as SOXX, is trading higher in the pre-market (as of 8:35 a.m., EST).

Separately, the stop on short trade WMT-25-04, has been moved down to just above its session high at 97.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

If WMT, posts a new daily high, it’s likely to test the trend break; we’ll stand on the sidelines if/when, that happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mid-Session Update

July 1, 2025 By in David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO-25-01, TZA-25-03, WMT-25-03, Wyckoff

Position Summary

Watching it all, in real time. 🙂

All positions stopped out.

However, that’s not the end of the story.

Miners, GDX, have just posted a Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Short this sector via DUST as DUST-25-05, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tractor Supply … Tests Reversal

June 30, 2025 By in David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO, Wyckoff

Once Again, The Pattern Repeats

There’s nothing exciting about Tractor Supply Co., (TSCO), except, maybe, the repeating pattern.

Looking at the chart on a close basis, we have a potential Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tractor Supply Co., Daily Close

At this point, it appears that volume is contracting on the upward test.

However, we’re still two-hours to go, before the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart’s ‘Strategic Reversal’

June 27, 2025 By in Up-Thrust, WMT, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Customers’, are (likely) ‘Disappearing’

‘Ten Million, In’ … ‘Ten Million, Out’

The ‘in’ part, happened quickly; the ‘out’ part, also happening, but may take (a lot) longer.

Either way, one gets the sense the dynamic for WMT, has changed.

Public sentiment has shifted with examples like this, and this.

Looking at price action, it’s like a slow-motion train-wreck.

Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly

At this point (this week), the Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ is being tested; so far, price action is retreating from resistance.

From a risk standpoint, the parameters are well defined.

For a short position, the stop would be this week’s high at WMT, 99.11 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 22, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Wyckoff, GLD, Positions, CVNA, WMT, CRWD, CVNA-25-05, WMT-25-02, CRWD-25-05 1 Comment

Gold’s ‘Rally Fatigue’

If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?

Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.

The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.

Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.

However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.

Strategy First

Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.

With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):

CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02

Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279