Category Archives: Wyckoff

CrowdStrike … Then & Now

June 19, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-04, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

‘Somebody, Always Knows …’

CrowdStrike may have reached a top, or maybe ‘the’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, this update could be part of a series.

With the chart below, we’re going to start first with ‘then’, and also first, with some background on the cyber ‘glitch’.

Background

The software crash of July 19th, 2024, was the result of an update, not external cyber-attack, link here.

Damage as result of lost revenue (for subscribers), was in the $Billions … with a ‘B’. 🙂

The effects of that loss are still reverberating, evidenced by CrowdStrike’s earnings, links here, here, and last year, here.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As noted (on the chart), there was clear evidence something was wrong, well before the ‘glitch’.

The most recent earnings release saw a sharp drop, -8.9%, at the lows; volume doubled from the prior session.

Then, nine trading days later, CRWD, inches to a new all-time high.

Yesterday’s action was down with a potential ‘change of character’.

Currently short: CRWD-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Reversal or Supply?

June 14, 2025 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Top, or Not

The past two trading days have Carvana down hard, on supply.

Is the trend still up?

What about the Fibonacci time (Day 89) correlation?

Prechter said it best, when commenting that ‘time’ follows ‘form’; meaning, the form is the most important and time, secondary.

So, at this juncture, time correlation is set aside, and we look at form.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The past (price action) is affecting the present.

Note how the resistance level from way back in late 2021, mapped directly to the present.

Based on that resistance, current action can be labeled a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Test or Not

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back up for a test of resistance. It can happen, but it’s not required.

Recall, there’s a Fed meeting and interest rate announcement, this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

U.S. Steel & The ‘Deal’

May 26, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-02, Positions, Wyckoff, X, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Another Short Opportunity?

A pattern is starting to emerge.

First, it was Boeing, now, it’s U.S. Steel.

Price action moves higher on news.

Trump Endorses U.S. Steel-Nippon Deal, link here.

Nippon purchase of U.S. Steel gets Trump’s approval for ‘planned partnership’, link here.

The ‘pattern’ begs the question: Can these upward ‘blips’ be sustained?

Blip Before Trip?

At this point, the answer to Boeing’s ‘blip’ from this site’s perspective is no (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, the short on Boeing (BA-25-02), could be stopped-out at the next session. Anything can happen.

Then, what about U.S. Steel?

U.S. Steel, X, Weekly

Price action has penetrated resistance which puts X, technically, in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position.

There are several differences between the potential short set-up for X, and the one for BA.

First, the ‘spring’ portion on X, is missing, or not readily apparent like what can be seen here.

What Is & What May Be

Secondly, in Boeing’s case, events have already happened; production problems, design problems, quality control, labor disputes, bond ratings, already present.

Short trade (BA-25-02) anticipates, when ‘the blip is gone‘, focus on all things wrong with BA, will return.

The difference with U.S. Steel, a short would be in anticipation of things not yet present, to appear, such as the merger falling apart or some other event that negates the scenario.

Taking the two factors into account, no ‘spring’ portion of the set-up and anticipating things yet to appear, we’ll stand aside on shorting X, for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOM, XOM-25-01, XOP

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Follow The Money’ … Eli Lilly

May 10, 2025 By in Health Care, LLY, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-01, XLV-25-02, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

Exactly, What We’re Doing

At this juncture, the ‘money’, is heading out of Eli Lilly.

According to this link, LLY is the heaviest weighting in Health Care Sector, XLV.

Wyckoff analysis pointed to XLV, starting with this post. That short was stopped-out along with another (XLV-25-02), which was not discussed.

Thís update, let the site-visitor know (from the sidebar), there was a third attempt to short (XLV-25-03).

That trade is active and in-the-green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Confusion A-Plenty

Gold up, silver down, interest rates up, dollar down, then up, biotech down, drugs down, healthcare down, defense up; on it goes.

Then, what does ‘retail’ do? They ‘buy the dip‘

What ‘dip’ exactly, is that?

Let’s move on to LLY, and see what it’s telling us.

Eli Lilly LLY, Daily

Volume (churn) increased significantly from the earnings release on October 30th, 2024, onward.

There have been two ‘breakaway’ gaps (down) since the May 1st, earnings release.

It’s also possible there’s a trading channel.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Air Products, Reversal

May 9, 2025 By in APD, APD-25-01, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-03

Another One (short)

Air Products (APD) has set-up for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart has a similar pattern to Health Care Sector (XLV), in this update.

In fact, it’s almost identical.

Air Products (APD), Daily

Price spiked May 1st, on the earnings release.

More, at this link.

A short position was opened today, around mid-session: APD-25-01, with a stop at or near the day’s high; APD 272.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Carvana’s, Car Fire

May 8, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

A New (closing) High?

Carvana’s going straight up.

Last night, post earnings release (here and here), it was a wild session.

That action’s spilling over into today.

The question, as we’ll see below, can CVNA, close above the prior (closing) high of 285.33.

As of this post (10:38 a.m., EST), it’s printing 287.67.

Set-Up, Review

Before getting to the chart, let’s review this post.

Time & Target were forecasted in that update (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, here we are. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 55’.

When working with larger Fibonacci timeframes, +/- a few days is an acceptable margin.

Long-time visitors to this site know exactly what you’re looking at: Wyckoff, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Those who are new or want to review, this is a good place to start, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector (short) Target

May 5, 2025 By in CLM25, Oil, Oil & Gas, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOP 1 Comment

Looking For The Breakout … That Fails

At this juncture, oil futures are in a minor ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

The gap lower open discussed in last night’s update, has been closed (as expected).

What we’re looking for now (for potential XOP short), is a push higher in the futures (CLM25) to the 60 – 61 area.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

At mid-session, XOP is trading right at resistance.

Note: Two gaps straddle the wide-high volume bar of April 3rd. As we know, wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested.

That’s what we’re looking for.

An upside test of at least one of the gaps that fails; thus creating a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Down … China Sells

May 1, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff, GDX, GDXJ, JDST, GLD, Positions, ZeroHedge, China, SILJ, JDST-25-10 1 Comment

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?

Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.

With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.

Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?

Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.

With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve penetrated support.

Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279