Category Archives: Wyckoff

The HOOD, Tests its Reversal

August 14, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-04, Positions, Retail Investor, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

The last update on HOOD, said there’s a potential trading channel, link here.

The next day, price action negated that channel with a break to the upside.

That upside now looks like a ‘spring’, leading straight into an ‘up-thrust’; a repeating pattern.

HOOD reversed from its highs and today, looks to be testing that breakdown.

Volume for this session contracted by -37.5%, when compared to yesterday.

Robinhood, HOOD, Daily

From a trading perspective, a short was opened yesterday; HOOD-25-04.

Position size was increased today as price action was rising into its test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech in (short) Range

August 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-01

Pushes Past Resistance

Will biotech XBI, be ‘picked-off’ by the shorts?

Three months ago, was this post; identifying a potential area for reversal.

Looking for the set-up, a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’, more commonly known as false breakout.

Biotech XBI, Daily

After waiting, watching price action on a daily basis, almost getting sucked-in (short) too early, we now have a potential false breakout.

The penetration of resistance is not quite what was expected (meaning, a much larger thrust) and there may be more upside to come.

With that said, as can be seen from the side-bar, an initial short was opened today, XBI-25-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … In The ‘Pattern’

August 11, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, GXZ25, Inflation, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Was That, The Top?

Inflation reports are released tomorrow, link here.

That release may be an inflection point for the miners.

This past Friday, GCZ25, posted an all-time high, then reversal; in the early session today, it’s continuing lower.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, what’s in the inflation reports is immaterial. The real question is, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Pre-market action (8:34 a.m., EST) shows a lower open.

If we open lower, the short entry objective, is to wait for action to move higher in an attempt to close the (potential) gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UBER & Earnings

August 6, 2025 By in Ed Dowd, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, UBER, Wyckoff

Downside Pressure

UBER’s earnings were stellar; why’s the stock heading lower?

From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the question’s not relevant.

We pay no attention to financial news, or news of any kind.

The real question, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

UBER, Daily

The repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

On a longer, monthly timeframe (not shown), there’s a massive MACD bearish divergence; telling us, opportunity favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

To minimize risk as much as possible, we’re looking for price action to rise into the close, narrowing the distance between entry and stop.

The stop would be (if a trade is placed) at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Economic Conditions.

Another interview with Ed Dowd, has surfaced, link here.

As one of the comments noted, ‘this is the best synopsis of actual market conditions presented, to-date’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Algorithmic’ Grind

July 30, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Richie Naso, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Day by Day, Inching Higher

It’s been over two months, since this post.

As the chart shows, biotech XBI, has made it all the way back, to the (blue line) resistance area.

However, it has not pushed above that area to create an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Richie Naso, on Algorithms

Mr. Naso gives us a brief (technical) three-minute detail on why we should expect XBI, to penetrate the resistance area, link here.

He’s describing false moves (Wyckoff springs and up-thrusts) that trap the inexperienced and unsuspecting; it’s what markets do.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Notice the ‘choppy’ action.

It’s as if XBI, is looking for some kind of resolution, like maybe, a false breakout.

There’s no guarantee we’ll get above resistance. If it happens, there’s no guarantee it’s a false breakout.

However, as Naso says, the ‘probability’ of a false breakout, is (in his words) ‘above 80%’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 26, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-09, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

Is Time Running Out?

The last update on CrowdStrike, said this:

“The coming week may see an attempt to rally. If so and depending on price action, the risk on a short position may be reduced.”

That’s what happened; CrowdStrike rallied, then reversed again.

It also turns out, that rally may have been a test of the upper wedge boundary (shown below).

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

As stated by Wyckoff, typical market behavior for patterns or trend breaks, is for some kind of test.

Last week, specifically, Monday the 21st, may have been that test.

Positioned short as trade CRWD-25-09, with stop at the week’s high of 490.04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Texas Instruments … Implodes

July 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, TXN, Wyckoff

The ‘Go-Forward’, Model?

Is this how it’s going to be when the entire SOXX, A.I. bubble, implodes?

One gap-down, after another?

TXN, earnings, link here, looks benign.

Certainly not anything seen as a material cause for an 11% crash, overnight.

‘Weaker than expected’, does not a forecast, make. Price action could have easily ‘shrugged off’ the ‘weaker than expected’. 🙂

The reality, TXN is down hard with SOXX, down with it.

The probability of reversal for the SOXX, was in price action itself; covered here and here:

This is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

From the 7/15 high, to 7/21, high, was Fibonacci 5-Days.

Stop on short position SOXX-25-07, has been lowered from 250.19, to 246.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Stalls, after Earnings

July 12, 2025 By in Airlines, Artificial Intelligence, DAL, DAL-25-02, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Straight Up, to Resistance

Delta’s latest earnings release provided an excellent opportunity for a ‘changing of hands’.

We’ll have to see what happens next, to verify that premise (not advice, not a recommendation).

In a scene that could be straight out of Livermore and Wyckoff’s observations, the big players need huge volume to enter or exit positions.

For Delta, that volume event was (potentially) last Thursday.

Delta DAL, Daily

Stright up to resistance on massive volume.

Then, the next day, a lower close.

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

As noted, we’re at the 61.8%, retrace of the entire move; January 22nd, highs, to ‘tariff panic’, April 4th, lows.

The initial wave from highs-to-lows, was ‘impulsive’.

Then, and a-b-c, ‘corrective’ wave (labeling not shown), to where we are now.

All of which, brings us to ‘positioning’

Positions

As noted, short this sector as trade DAL-25-02; stop, just above Thursday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

Discretionary exit on SOXX short, SOXX-25-04, at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maintaining Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, with stop lowered to 96.78 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike’s … Terminal Wedge

July 11, 2025 By in Cramer, CRWD, Positions, Richie Naso, SOXX, SOXX-25-03, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Contrary Indicator(s)

Part of the wedge ‘Throw-Over’ as we’ll see in the chart, may have been in response to this, link here.

With the ‘all clear’ going out to millions of ‘investors’, what could go wrong?

Looking at it from a strictly Wyckoff, and chart pattern perspective (a la Richie Nasso), probabilities favor a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close

Price action has entered back into the pattern.

Positioning

No active positions in CRWD … yet.

After yesterday’s trend-break (into the pattern), there’s a possibility for a rally to test.

Other Markets

SOXX short, was re-opened as SOXX-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, remains active, with stop being moved down to (near) the last session high of 96.91 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279