Category Archives: XLF

Miners, pre-market, Target

November 10, 2025 By in ABD-25-15, Banking, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-15, Up-Thrust, XBI, XLF

Inflation Higher, Deflation Lower

As of 7:55 a.m., EST, Senior Miners GDX are trading in the area of the dashed magenta line.

The prior two updates (here and here) targeted this area as a potential location for retrace and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Toggling between the two charts, shows price action is actually in the middle of the (prior) target areas.

Other Markets the Same

Several other markets are in the same (retrace, up-thrust) position; specifically, XLF and XBI.

We’ll cover those in another update, if price action warrants.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials follow Fibonacci

October 29, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, XLF 1 Comment

Sequence Intact … So Far

The segment at left, shows confirmation, the financial sector is following a Fibonacci sequence for pivot points.

As stated in the last update, this usually takes place when markets are emotional, stressed, or both.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Isolated Fraud’

October 26, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, KRE, SD Buiilion, XLF 2 Comments

The New, ‘Subprime Contained’

That’s how mainstream financial media labels it.

Not to worry, it’s only:

‘Isolated Fraud‘

Some know but probably most don’t, the banking laws were changed over a decade ago, in 2014.

Details about those changes, are here and here.

With that said, price action of ETF financial sectors KRE and XLF, have not completely melted down … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

What they have done, is topped, reversed, and are now testing resistance levels; especially XLF.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily Close

For reference, the all-time high and reversal (still intact) was first discussed here.

Also shown, is the Fibonacci time sequence that appears to be in-effect.

Fibonacci sequencing tends to work best when markets are highly emotional (like now).

Monday, is ‘Day 8’.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Morning After

October 20, 2025 By in Banking, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, KRE, Positions, SLV, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08 2 Comments

Sort Of

It’s not really the morning after but being the day after Friday’s action, we’ll call it even.

Two shorts closed and three opened.

Both the XLF, and UBER, shorts were closed; one with profit, one not. Then, three more opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated in the comments on this previous post, it’s possible the banking index KRE, is not going to make it to Fibonacci Day 34, this Wednesday.

Time counts are always secondary to price action.

Next up, is the silver market.

It’s a no-brainer that something’s ready to break. The press and YouTubers, et al., would have you believe that were finally ‘putting it to the man’. The ‘paper manipulation’ is over, so it goes.

Mabe that’s right this time around.

However, I’ll stick with the market-makers that have been in control since the buttonwood tree. 🙂

More updates to come with charts and positions.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber Stalls At The Top

October 19, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, Positions, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08

Wedge & Breakdown

According to this link, Uber is the 95th most ‘valuable’ company in the world.

They’re also a magnet for lawsuits.

When looking at the chart, there’s a top lasting around five months; last week, was the breakdown.

Uber, UBER, Daily Close

Note on the left side of the chart is wild, volatile (unstable) price action.

It then coalesces into a small area (the wedge), with four failed attempts to move higher over this month and last.

Tight price action typically precedes a breakout move.

All of which resulted in positioning short as UBER-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated with yesterday’s update, the overnight Sunday session opens later today.

If either the Uber or XLF shorts, present the potential for sustained upside, an exit of both is likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Bust Ahead?

October 18, 2025 By in Banking, Credit Destruction, Positions, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 5 Comments

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?

Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:

Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.

The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.

“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.

Wyckoff Had The Edge

The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.

The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.

Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:

“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”

The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.

Focus Amidst The Chaos

The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.

Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.

All of which brings us to the chart.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).

Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Expectations, Next Week

Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.

The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Melt-Down … The Start?

October 17, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, Positions, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge

Deja Vu

Has the melt-down smoke cleared, or was this week just the first Dominoe to fall?

The most recent post on the banking sector is here.

From that, we had:

“Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed …”

The initial (nascent) downtrend was broken to the upside; short position XLF-25-07, exited with a small gain.

Then, we had this week.

The sidebar on yesterday’s post, shows a new short; XLF-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The update was about plans before the close. In the final minutes of trade, we have Uber short; UBER-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss both positions with charts over the weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber … The Wheels Come Off

October 16, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, KRE, Positions, SLV, TRV, TRV-25-01, XLF, XLF-25-08 1 Comment

Waiting for The Close

Something’s happened to the banks, XLF, KRE; both down hard.

Gold, GLD has launched parabolic, typical of blow-off moves.

Meanwhile bonds are higher (Ed Dowd told us to watch those), insurance companies hit and then, there’s Uber.

Uber, UBER, Daily

Uber at all-time highs for weeks before breaking down.

It’s now penetrated support.

There’s likely to be an attempt to ‘spring’ off that penetration (expected to fail).

If it’s going to happen, watch the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking Sector Breakdown

October 2, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Thoughtful Money, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-07

Top & Trend

Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed, and now appears to have formed a nascent down-trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Top ten components are listed here.

Of those ten, nine are directly related to banking, credit or the insane (dubbed ‘pornographic‘) valuations of the market.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

There’s an open short position, XLF-25-17, with stop located at yesterday’s high.

After today’s session, that stop will be moved lower to the high of today, currently at XLF 53.48 (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, although the trend appears to be lower, XLF has penetrated established support.

That puts it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. Some (marginal) upside is to be expected.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking System’s ‘Old Maid’

October 1, 2025 By in Banking, Daniela Cambone, DIA, DIA-25-05, Ed Dowd, Financial Sector, KBE, KBE-25-01, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, XLF, XLF-25-07 2 Comments

Where Is It?

As Ed Dowd says in this interview (time stamp: 19:16), somebody in the banking system’s holding The Old Maid.

As the overall markets continue to form what looks to be a top, maybe ‘the’ top, a process of (trade) iteration is occurring.

The objective is to determine which sector is the most vulnerable.

Short positions in the Dow and the SOXX have both been stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

With implosion of Tricolor Auto and now First Brands, the market itself is telling us, look at financial sector(s).

With that said, short positions have been opened in XLF, and KRE; both of which so far, are holding below their early session highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279