Category Archives: XLV

Healthcare at The Wedge

November 2, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Bernanke, Ed Dowd, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-08

Looking Behind The Curtain

Healthcare’s recent behavior seems to have revived an old theory:

The ‘cockroach theory‘

Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.

So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

‘Isolated’

That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.

Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?

Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.

Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close

We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.

After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.

Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.

It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce

November 1, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Health Care, UNH, XLV

Crash, Retrace, Reversal

With all eyes fixated and hypnotized by the A.I. bubble, behind the scenes, other markets have retraced and reversed.

They look ready to continue the next (major) leg … down.

One of those is UnitedHealth and the Healthcare Sector XLV (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on UNH, was back during the earnings implosion.

Two months later, UNH went on to post a (slight) new low, changing the retrace projections.

As is typical for this site, we’re going to look at UNH from a strategic, longer-term perspective, the monthly chart.

UnitedHealth UNH, Monthly

During the last melt-down in ’07 – ’08, UNH lost -75.60%.

For October just ended, we can see (zoom area), UNH retraced to 38.2%, rejected it, closing lower for the month.

Before everyone decides it’s a ‘slam-dunk’ lower, for UNH, in the markets, anything can happen. Amazon’s (AMZN) overnight launch (on earnings) comes to mind.

Next up, we’ll look at the Health Care sector itself and tracking fund XLV.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce?

May 16, 2025 By in Health Care, Positions, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XLV, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

How Far, How Long?

Two major hits to UnitedHealth (UNH), in the past four days, here and here.

Let’s throw in this one as well, and make it an even three, link here, website link here. Is that why the healthcare costs are going up unexpectedly?

The Wall Street Journal, UnitedHealth, and ZeroHedge, may have presented conditions for an interim low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The press is usually last and typically presents (these days, anyway) nothing new.

The price action itself, told us something was wrong.

United Health UNH, Daily

Massive, historic volume for UNH, may indicate a temporary bottom and retrace to test Fibonacci levels.

Separately, the XLV short XLV-25-03 was closed with 6.93% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Implosion

May 13, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Health Care, Livermore, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03

Breakaway Gap(s)

For Health Care Sector XLV, it’s one downside gap after another.

While ‘retail’ is off buying some kind of supposed ‘dip’, we have a market that’s fractured:

Gold and silver once up, now down, healthcare down, dollar up (wasn’t it supposed to collapse already?), airlines up, biotech down, basic materials up, auto dealers down, then up … and on it goes.

Housekeeping

Before we get started, Carvana short (CVNA-25-01) was closed when this morning’s action posted a new daily high.

CVNA, may be headed to that ‘310’ area we’ve been discussing for several weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Sector XLV, Daily

The next chart shows the stop progression and trendline for short-trade XLV-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, the trade is progressing and price action ‘makes sense’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s no telling how long the right-side trend will remain in-effect; so, the correct action as Jesse Livermore said years ago is, ‘Get right and sit tight’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Follow The Money’ … Eli Lilly

May 10, 2025 By in Health Care, LLY, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-01, XLV-25-02, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

Exactly, What We’re Doing

At this juncture, the ‘money’, is heading out of Eli Lilly.

According to this link, LLY is the heaviest weighting in Health Care Sector, XLV.

Wyckoff analysis pointed to XLV, starting with this post. That short was stopped-out along with another (XLV-25-02), which was not discussed.

Thís update, let the site-visitor know (from the sidebar), there was a third attempt to short (XLV-25-03).

That trade is active and in-the-green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Confusion A-Plenty

Gold up, silver down, interest rates up, dollar down, then up, biotech down, drugs down, healthcare down, defense up; on it goes.

Then, what does ‘retail’ do? They ‘buy the dip‘

What ‘dip’ exactly, is that?

Let’s move on to LLY, and see what it’s telling us.

Eli Lilly LLY, Daily

Volume (churn) increased significantly from the earnings release on October 30th, 2024, onward.

There have been two ‘breakaway’ gaps (down) since the May 1st, earnings release.

It’s also possible there’s a trading channel.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Air Products, Reversal

May 9, 2025 By in APD, APD-25-01, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-03

Another One (short)

Air Products (APD) has set-up for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart has a similar pattern to Health Care Sector (XLV), in this update.

In fact, it’s almost identical.

Air Products (APD), Daily

Price spiked May 1st, on the earnings release.

More, at this link.

A short position was opened today, around mid-session: APD-25-01, with a stop at or near the day’s high; APD 272.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling The Healthcare … Rip

April 23, 2025 By in Goldman, Great Depression 2.0, Greg Hunter, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-01, ZeroHedge Tags:

Wedge Formation

It’s a bear market; we have non-stop headline induced whipsaws, never-before seen extremes, massive downdrafts followed by (face-ripping) short covering squeezes.

Then, there’s the ‘fatigue’:

“Investor Fatigue Has Set In”: Goldman’s Desk Summarizes The Key Market Themes, link here.

Judging from the links below, the professionals (seem to) have an idea of what’s likely; the other side (the retail side), remains clueless or confused.

‘Depression Cycle Is Here’ Charles Nenner Warns “It Will Be Much Worse In 2026”, link here.

As Professional Traders Panic Sell, Retail Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying., link here.

The recent sharp recovery has shown us where to go for short-side opportunity.

One such sector, is the healthcare industry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Select Sector SPDR, XLV, Daily

The wedge is obvious.

Typical classical analysis market guidelines for wedge:

Whatever direction was the entry, that’s the (most likely) direction for exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there is a downside exit, we’ll discuss measured move(s) at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279