Uber ‘Breakdown’

November 24, 2025 By in UBER

Ease of Movement, Lower

Last week was a swift breakdown from a wedge.

For the week, UBER closed down -8.46%, a decisive move.

Now, in the pre-market, it’s attempting to test that wide (weekly) bar.

It may continue (testing) in the regular session.

Either way, for a short position, the stop is well defined; last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: Uber had been forming a top (dissipating energy) for two months before last week’s break.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

No ‘Santa’ for Amazon

November 23, 2025 By in AMZN, Ed Dowd, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLY, XLY-25-01 3 Comments

This Year, is Different

As is typical for this time of year, the pundits are out talking about the Santa Claus rally.

We’re literally hours away (Sunday futures), from finding out if there’s even a chance of that happening.

One sector that’s not looking too well, is the consumer and proxy, Amazon.

Amazon AMZN, Daily

As can been seen, a wedge is typically a terminating pattern, signaling the end (or near end) of the move.

The important part, while there are small wedge formations, we’re also in a much larger wedge that’s broken to the downside.

Let’s zoom-in, and look at the far-right side.

The earnings blow-off was not only a wedge, but on a longer timeframe, a Wyckoff up-thrust as well.

Here’s the link to the Amazon press release.

There’s plenty of discussion about A.I. saving the day.

Ed Dowd has presented in his interviews, from an overall economic standpoint, the A.I. ‘excuse’ for efficiency improvements, layoffs, is just a ruse to cover the fact, demand is collapsing.

With that said, AMZN has broken the downside of its wedge and has potentially completed a test of that break.

With futures to open soon, we might find out (today) if downside action is to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


‘Comments’ for The Week

November 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Comments, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

Progression of Thought

The following links are a summary of market related comments (made on other channels or platforms) for the week.

This past week has been interesting, with potential kick-off, of the A.I. implosion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tuesday

The crash of 1899 was in December. So, it’s happened before … (link here).

Wednesday

Tomorrow will (likely) be an interesting day. For the SOXX, a move above or around 294 – 296, will likely take out the shorts. (link here)

Thursday

Nvidia has already peaked (October 29th). Today’s action was a ‘test’ of that reversal. Watch to see if NVDA closes lower for the day. (link here)

Summary

The SOXX, never made it to the target range. Highest print for last Thursday, was 289.99; then, it collapsed.

Nvidia action for that day looked like a test; then closed lower for the day … then lower again, the next day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Stop-n-Go, Congestion

November 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-16, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Fighting it Out

Carvana’s been fighting it out in a congestion area for over two weeks.

Before that, the chart shows long-term trend (and wedge), had already broken to the downside.

Looking at the totality of the CVNA trading range, from lows near 4, to highs around 390, the congestion action looks quite narrow.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Note: The insert is an expanded view, showing the breakdown and test.

With release of NVDA earnings, the prior update implied the A.I. bubble may have officially popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia GPUs … ‘Sold Out’

November 20, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Contrary Indicator

The earnings release ‘beat’ expectations, link here.

Then, there’s this, link here. Let’s not forget this, link here.

Big sigh.

When looking at the pre-market (as of 7:45 a.m., EST), Nvidia is trading at 50% retrace, and resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Once you have ‘sold-out’, then, what’s next?

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Consumer ‘Bailout’?

November 19, 2025 By in AMZN, KRE

Not Likely

The banks have (probably) decided how they’re getting a bail-out.

One option is with your money, link here.

Maybe that’s why the financial sector, regional banks (KRE) are hesitating to move significantly lower.

They might in the future, but not currently (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, the banks are covered.

Who’s covering the ‘consumer’?

What better indicator of the economy, consumer ‘health’, than consumption bastion, Amazon.

Amazon AMZN, Weekly

Looks straightforward, i.e., bearish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the volume ‘climax’, occurred during the week of earnings release, link here.

Amazon’s one (or the) proxy for the consumer. So far, that consumer’s not looking well.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Reversal to Wedge

November 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-17, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Bulls, Back Off

As the chart shows, we have a terminating wedge.

The prior update (here) proposed we’re in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

That set-up subsequently morphed into the wedge, shown.

Either way, we’re not far away.

Price action closed today, down 0.18-pts below the high of the last update, November 14th.

During the past two trading sessions, volume has been consecutively lower; suggesting the bulls are backing off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, In The Lane

November 17, 2025 By in CVNA

Trading Channel

With the major indices lower today, Carvana (CVNA) managed to close higher.

Price action has remained within the trading channel shown, since September 17th.

The rest of the markets look like they’re rolling over. So, it might be a stretch to expect CVNA, to close above the 332.33, level discussed here.

Not only close higher but do it tomorrow, on ‘Day 8’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … in Reverse

November 16, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unique Characteristics

Each market has its own behavior.

At significant reversals since the all-time high on July 31st, Carvana has posted a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’.

The last update, link here, said this:

“Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.”

For that day, CVNA retraced upward to 50%, posted the up-thrust, then reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Depending on A.I., and Nvidia specifically (more upside?), there’s a chance of a close above the 332.33 level previously discussed (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, some think last week was ‘it’; the market has cracked.

That analysis is here and here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

November 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-16, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI 1 Comment

Bearish MACD

The chart shows biotech XBI, struggling at resistance (blue line).

At the same time, we have a bearish divergence on MACD.

Taking a look at the components of XBI, link here, seven of those in the top ten, have no P/E at all (not advice, not a recommendation).

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279