Tag Archives: technical-analysis

SOXX Rolls Over

November 26, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , ,

The Big One?

It’s been a long time coming.

The next down-leg in the SOXX, and A.I., bubble, may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Many factors coming together; Fibonacci projections, retrace levels and time sequences; price action posting and defining trend lines and trading channels.

With that, let’s take a look at what the SOXX, is saying about itself.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re half-way though today’s session, anything can happen. Even so, the test and reversal are clear.

What also may be in the making, is the verification of the trading channel shown.

The channel has its own Fibonacci count(s).

One part, Fibonacci 5-days wide, another, Fibonacci 8 days, for a total of Fibonacci 13-days.

Positioning

For those following this site on a daily basis, you already know, this sector’s been sold (short) via leveraged inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade number is, SOXS-24-20, in the sidebar, above.

The short was initiated with this update, shown above in the chart. It was maintained throughout the gyrations of the ‘election’ and aftermath.

Now, we wait.

If nothing else, and the trade falls apart, today’s session high in the SOXX, is an excellent place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX ‘Pop’

November 25, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Testing The Underside

After the ‘test’, is that when the plug is pulled?

It’s the market’s job to frustrate (nearly) every single participant, bull or bear, into submission, into giving up and exiting just before the real move gets underway.

How many times have you heard (or experienced) the following:

“The market stopped me out, then took off for a huge gain … without me”.

Experience (i.e. many losses) is the ability to know when the trade (premise) is broken or just going through a test. 🙂

Looking at the SOXX, it’s a compelling (test) picture (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Prior updates (here and here) have shown the similarities of the A.I. bubble to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s.

One of the events watched for, was the ‘trend break’.

As of today, the market is currently testing that break.

The fact we have a new weekly (retrace) high as well, presents a Fibonacci time correlation.

This week is Fibonacci 21-weeks from the all-time-high in the SOXX.

A downside reversal from this point may indeed tell us, ‘The plug has been pulled’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Retrace Higher, For Now

November 24, 2024 By in Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , ,

… ‘The Most Likely Event’

One week ago, the update on silver (SLV), ended with this (emphasis added):

“Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).”

As the chart shows, that’s exactly what happened.

One important item (so far) is the weakness.

Silver Daily with Fibonacci Retrace

The retrace higher, closed near the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

As can be seen, the market is following a Fibonacci time sequence for its pivot locations.

The next count is ‘Day 8’, which just so happens to be this coming Tuesday’s release of Fed minutes and one day before the PCE, is released.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes on Bonds … Rates Higher

September 28, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Michael Bordenaro, TLT Tags: , , , , , , ,

Pulling Back The Curtain

Rates not going lower but higher as reported here, now being confirmed by ‘boots-on-the-ground’, link here.

With rates moving higher now, the next Fed meeting after the ‘election’, seems a long time away.

Exact Opposite

As Michael Bordenaro reported (link) above, ‘everybody’ expected rates to fall because, well, you know … The Fed 🙂

As he states, the exact opposite is what’s happening.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the curtain’s being pulled back on a lot of things. The Fed’s in ‘control’ is just one of them.

So, let’s take a look at bonds, then and now.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

That was then.

Fast-forward, to now.

Price patterns can dissipate or stay ‘in-effect’.

The measured move target shows where bonds are likely to go, if the pattern stays in effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, bonds lower, means rates higher.

Get your popcorn ready and let’s watch how the media’s going to spin this one.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Fibonacci, & The Tape

September 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-18, Livermore, Loeb, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Reversal of Significance

Wyckoff (tape reading) analysis identified the potential reversal in XBI.

In the past two days of trading, biotech XBI, is decisively lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, there’s more to this story.

As we’ll see below, Fibonacci is at work as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

From closing high on 2/27/24, to closing high on 9/19/24, was a Fibonacci 144 days (minus one).

Ladies and Gentlemen, it doesn’t get much better 🙂

The black lines show resistance penetration, up-thrust and reversal.

Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb

The trading methods of the three market masters above, can be summarized as:

Strategy, Tactics and Focus.

Livermore’s method of ‘what’s going to happen in a (potential) big way’, pointed to biotech.

Wyckoff’s analysis was used to identify (to the day), the potential for a significant reversal.

Loeb, who is less known, was the former Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, disparaged ‘diversification’ as the ‘averaging of errors’; meaning, if you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you ‘diversify.’

We can see all three at work in the selection to go short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fixing Errors

For those watching, you got to see up close and personal a trading error on shorting the SOXX; specifically, an -11.6%, hit, link here.

As of this post, four trading days later, that loss has been fully recovered and then some.

This is how should be done.

Clear the mind, look for (don’t force) another opportunity, get to back to business.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279