Monthly Archives: November 2024

Which (break) is Which?

November 30, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Bubbles, Side-by-Side

Here’s something a little different.

Two trend breaks are shown side-by-side.

Without looking at prior updates, which chart is the internet (QQQ) bubble break and which chart is the A.I. (SOXX), bubble break?

We’ll cue the Jeopardy music while you pick. 🙂

And now, for the reveal

Internet Bubble QQQ, Weekly

The chart segment on the right, is the internet bubble of the 2000s.

There’s no ‘rest of the story’ with the SOXX.

That story has yet to happen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Trend Break Test

November 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Was That It?

Watching the SOXX, price action in real time, is like a slow-motion train wreck.

The trendline shown below, was broken two weeks ago.

Since then, we’ve had an upside test.

As of the close today, that test appears to be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Frist, the break and test.

Next, we’re at Fibonacci Week 21, from the all-time highs and reversal.

All of this suggests some type of inflection point.

Positioning

As of today’s close, the original entry (SOXS @ 19.98) for SOXS-24-20, is up a solid +17.67%.

Since that entry, other smaller trades (eight in total) have been profitable, thereby reducing the price-level, increasing the gain, of the original entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

We may be at the point, where that ‘slow-motion train wreck’, begins to pick up steam.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Trading Channel … Down

November 28, 2024 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, SLV

It’s All About The Numbers

Wasn’t silver supposed to ‘catch up’ with gold and ‘close the gap’, launch higher because of ‘hyperinflation’, ‘go along for the ride’, expose the ‘evil manipulators’?

No one ever considered that gold might head lower, to close that gap, but I digress (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, we won’t know until it’s all over if this is just a blip lower or if we’re in a sustained downside reversal.

One thing that is known from the chart itself, we have Fibonacci showing up yet again.

Gold GLD, Daily

First, the un-marked chart. “What do you see?”

Now, for the mark-up. This is one way to look at it.

Wednesday’s close was slightly higher and with increased volume.

That suggests some amount of support … or behind Door No. 2, a potential exhaustion point if support fails.

Currently (as of 9:18 a.m., EST), in the futures market gold (GCG25), is up about +0.24%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Curtains For Biotech?

November 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Holiday Turns, LABD, SPBIO, The Daily Sceptic, The List, The Speck, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , 1 Comment

Today, Is ‘Day 13’

Strange things happen in the markets just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This time is no different.

With all that’s gone on in the past few weeks, one gets a sense ‘the jig is up’.

One example of the curtain being pulled back on a well-established grift, is this unrelated, but related post, link here.

So, it could be with biotech.

The past two weeks look like a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s been a Fibonacci 13-Days since the reversal on 11/11.

The sector has accelerated to the downside on record volume and now, is testing that break.

The ‘Axis Line’, is also the location of the 61.8%, retrace for the current down-move and test.

Although there’s been no new daily low to ‘confirm’ the test is complete, (upside) risk may be at a low.

Positioning

For reasons to be covered in a later update, this sector’s being shorted directly as opposed to using leveraged inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: XBI-24-01

Stop level for the short is (or will be) the session high, currently at XBI 99.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Rolls Over

November 26, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , ,

The Big One?

It’s been a long time coming.

The next down-leg in the SOXX, and A.I., bubble, may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Many factors coming together; Fibonacci projections, retrace levels and time sequences; price action posting and defining trend lines and trading channels.

With that, let’s take a look at what the SOXX, is saying about itself.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re half-way though today’s session, anything can happen. Even so, the test and reversal are clear.

What also may be in the making, is the verification of the trading channel shown.

The channel has its own Fibonacci count(s).

One part, Fibonacci 5-days wide, another, Fibonacci 8 days, for a total of Fibonacci 13-days.

Positioning

For those following this site on a daily basis, you already know, this sector’s been sold (short) via leveraged inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade number is, SOXS-24-20, in the sidebar, above.

The short was initiated with this update, shown above in the chart. It was maintained throughout the gyrations of the ‘election’ and aftermath.

Now, we wait.

If nothing else, and the trade falls apart, today’s session high in the SOXX, is an excellent place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX ‘Pop’

November 25, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , ,

Testing The Underside

After the ‘test’, is that when the plug is pulled?

It’s the market’s job to frustrate (nearly) every single participant, bull or bear, into submission, into giving up and exiting just before the real move gets underway.

How many times have you heard (or experienced) the following:

“The market stopped me out, then took off for a huge gain … without me”.

Experience (i.e. many losses) is the ability to know when the trade (premise) is broken or just going through a test. 🙂

Looking at the SOXX, it’s a compelling (test) picture (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Prior updates (here and here) have shown the similarities of the A.I. bubble to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s.

One of the events watched for, was the ‘trend break’.

As of today, the market is currently testing that break.

The fact we have a new weekly (retrace) high as well, presents a Fibonacci time correlation.

This week is Fibonacci 21-weeks from the all-time-high in the SOXX.

A downside reversal from this point may indeed tell us, ‘The plug has been pulled’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Retrace Higher, For Now

November 24, 2024 By in Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, SLV Tags: , ,

… ‘The Most Likely Event’

One week ago, the update on silver (SLV), ended with this (emphasis added):

“Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).”

As the chart shows, that’s exactly what happened.

One important item (so far) is the weakness.

Silver Daily with Fibonacci Retrace

The retrace higher, closed near the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

As can be seen, the market is following a Fibonacci time sequence for its pivot locations.

The next count is ‘Day 8’, which just so happens to be this coming Tuesday’s release of Fed minutes and one day before the PCE, is released.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Squeeze The Squeeze

November 23, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX Tags: , , , ,

… And Then, There’s CarMax

How long before the wheels come off?

As of Friday’s close, Carvana boasts a P/E, of 30,876.

Meanwhile, Carvana’s nearest competitor CarMax, has a P/E of 31.79, which in itself, is a bit sporty.

Caravana’s sales are less than half that of CarMax, yet its market cap is over three-times larger (source, www.tc2000.com)

Carvana’s ‘vending machine’ disruptive technology looks like it’s ‘worth’ an extra 97,000%, added to its P/E valuation (obviously, not advice, not a recommendation).

At the end of October, was this post, indicating Carvana may be in its final squeeze.

Since then, Carvana has inched itself higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

The two charts show that demand as measured by volume (spikes) has diminished significantly.

Moving in closer, we’ll look at a potential up-thrust set-up.

If we have just seen (or are in) the final thrust higher, the expectation is for price action to reverse down, then test the underside of resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana’s earnings release is not until February next year, but CarMax, that’s a different story.

CarMax is set to post earnings on December 19th (or 20th), this year, during market hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Melt Up … Blow Up … What?

November 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Confusion Abounds

So, what’s it going to be?

Hyperinflationary melt-up? A massive crash? Trump-bump to new era of prosperity?

From a strategic standpoint, taking the pulse of analysis presented in the mainstream, on YouTube, et al., it’s a mass of confusion and differing opinions.

When all else fails, when in doubt, just spit out the ‘inflation’ rout. 🙂

A Different Approach

This site’s focused on truth and truth, attracts few followers.

One of those truths is Nvidia’s latest earnings release.

That release may have indicated, the A.I. bubble, the bubble of all bubbles, has popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s take a look at the sector and see what it’s telling us.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

This prior update said we’re waiting for the break.

Well, we got it and now, an apparent test at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the October 15th, highs.

We’ll know soon enough, if the above work and the prior updates have identified the A.I. bubble top correctly.

Using the price action model of bubbles past, a trend break under the above conditions may signal an imminent, sustained, decline not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !!!

November 21, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

… And, Another One Down …

‘Another one bites the dust.’

Nvidia price action posts ‘out-side-down’.

There was plenty of after-market, and pre-market shenanigans concerning the ‘earnings‘ release.

The result? A.I. will still save the world, just a little slower than previously thought (not advice, not a recommendation).

But wait… do I still get to sign women’s breasts?

While price action in NVDA, is obvious, outside down (at mid-session), what’s not so obvious, is the sector itself.

What’s the SOXX, telling us?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the repeating pattern, ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As a bonus chart, we also have a potential trading channel.

Of course, the right-side line is a data-point of one. It’s not confirmed.

That is the way of the markets.

One needs to see (and manage) the potential before it becomes obvious.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279