Monthly Archives: May 2025

Sunday Night Futures

May 11, 2025 By in CLM25, GCM25, Gold & Silver, Oil, Oil & Gas, SIN25, XOP, ZeroHedge

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

Both gold (GCM25), and silver (SIN25), have opened lower and are currently (as of 7:35 p.m., EST) holding steady.

Oil (CLM25), is ever so slightly higher; that’s the sector we’ll focus on, in this update.

Starting with this post from last week.

That update had two target areas (the gaps) identified; so far, as the chart shows, we’re in range of the first target.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

XOP, is a 24/5 (EXTO Eligible) vehicle and is currently trading at 118.9, vs., Friday’s close at 118.84.

The chart shows action as of last Friday’s close.

Remember, we’re looking for something very specific, like this set-up in the Health Care Sector, link here.

Lastly, we have this just out on ZeroHedge. The economy is slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Website link is here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Follow The Money’ … Eli Lilly

May 10, 2025 By in Health Care, LLY, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-01, XLV-25-02, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

Exactly, What We’re Doing

At this juncture, the ‘money’, is heading out of Eli Lilly.

According to this link, LLY is the heaviest weighting in Health Care Sector, XLV.

Wyckoff analysis pointed to XLV, starting with this post. That short was stopped-out along with another (XLV-25-02), which was not discussed.

Thís update, let the site-visitor know (from the sidebar), there was a third attempt to short (XLV-25-03).

That trade is active and in-the-green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Confusion A-Plenty

Gold up, silver down, interest rates up, dollar down, then up, biotech down, drugs down, healthcare down, defense up; on it goes.

Then, what does ‘retail’ do? They ‘buy the dip‘

What ‘dip’ exactly, is that?

Let’s move on to LLY, and see what it’s telling us.

Eli Lilly LLY, Daily

Volume (churn) increased significantly from the earnings release on October 30th, 2024, onward.

There have been two ‘breakaway’ gaps (down) since the May 1st, earnings release.

It’s also possible there’s a trading channel.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Air Products, Reversal

May 9, 2025 By in APD, APD-25-01, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-03

Another One (short)

Air Products (APD) has set-up for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart has a similar pattern to Health Care Sector (XLV), in this update.

In fact, it’s almost identical.

Air Products (APD), Daily

Price spiked May 1st, on the earnings release.

More, at this link.

A short position was opened today, around mid-session: APD-25-01, with a stop at or near the day’s high; APD 272.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

c

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Carvana’s, Car Fire

May 8, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

A New (closing) High?

Carvana’s going straight up.

Last night, post earnings release (here and here), it was a wild session.

That action’s spilling over into today.

The question, as we’ll see below, can CVNA, close above the prior (closing) high of 285.33.

As of this post (10:38 a.m., EST), it’s printing 287.67.

Set-Up, Review

Before getting to the chart, let’s review this post.

Time & Target were forecasted in that update (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, here we are. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 55’.

When working with larger Fibonacci timeframes, +/- a few days is an acceptable margin.

Long-time visitors to this site know exactly what you’re looking at: Wyckoff, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Those who are new or want to review, this is a good place to start, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Peak Gold?

May 7, 2025 By in GLD, Prechter, ZeroHedge, Elliott Wave

Are We There, Yet?

It’s been nothing but hysteria, for gold.

The following is just a partial list from the past few days:

Gold Soars To Another New High, What’s The Message? Link here. Website link here.

Gold Soars $145 in 48 hours as China Takes Charge, link here

What Is Gold Trying to Tell Us? Link here.

Bullion, Bonds, & Black Gold Bid, But Stocks Skid As Bessent Bats Down Beijing Deal Bets. Link here.

Short Dollar, Long Gold; But Goldman’s Hatzius Hedges Between Hard Data Catch-Down & Positive China Mood Swings. Link here.

Gold: Like a Cork in Water. Link here.

Whales And Minnows Swimming To Gold. Link Here. Website link here.

On, it goes.

Gold GLD, Weekly: Then & Now

Shown below are two charts. The first is back from 2011, at the last major top.

The next chart is now.

Back in 2011, the massive Force Index, was posted before the high; a Fibonacci five-weeks, before.

Looking at the current chart, we have another massive Force Index, with the same value: 1.8B.

If the market follows the example of the past, we’re in that ‘fifth week’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector (short) Target

May 5, 2025 By in CLM25, Oil, Oil & Gas, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOP 1 Comment

Looking For The Breakout … That Fails

At this juncture, oil futures are in a minor ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

The gap lower open discussed in last night’s update, has been closed (as expected).

What we’re looking for now (for potential XOP short), is a push higher in the futures (CLM25) to the 60 – 61 area.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

At mid-session, XOP is trading right at resistance.

Note: Two gaps straddle the wide-high volume bar of April 3rd. As we know, wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested.

That’s what we’re looking for.

An upside test of at least one of the gaps that fails; thus creating a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 4, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, GLD, XOP, Oil, Oil & Gas, CLM25 Tags: 1 Comment

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

We’re about three-hours into the Sunday overnight session and here’s what’s happening, and what’s not.

Both gold and silver are holding steady; oil, has opened gap-down, trading lower by -3.4%.

Yesterday’s update showed the oil patch to be ‘exceptionally’ weak. The Sunday night open, is confirming that assessment (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Directed Action

The market itself tells us where to go for opportunity.

At this point, it’s telling us to focus on the oil sector.

Looking at the futures contract, CLM25, there’s not a single major gap that has not been filled or nearly filled.

That tells us, probabilities point to some kind of upward move (to close the gap) which in turn, tells us to monitor the sector (ETF) index, XOP.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Oil Patch (short)

May 3, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, XOP 2 Comments

Tricks of The Trade

During the ‘tariff’ meltdown, the oil patch XOP, took a hit right along with (nearly) everyone else.

Then, the markets began to recover. The oil sector … not so much.

When looking at that ‘recovery’ with respect to the highs of mid-June 2022, XOP, has only retraced Fibonacci 23.6%, located (approximately) just below the blue resistance line.

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

Price action has yet to push significantly above the ‘short squeeze’ level, posted during the week of April 11th.

In fact, when compared to recovery action in other markets, this one is exceptionally weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we’ll look at the daily chart and identify possible up-coming targets for short positioning (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, Call It Quits

May 2, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, JDST, GLD, Positions, SILJ, JDST-25-10

For Now, At Least

All three index ETFs, GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, posting lower, with the silver miners down the most.

The lower action couples with lower silver (SLV) and nearly lower gold (GLD).

For Junior Miners GDXJ, as of this post (12:28 p.m., EST), it’s showing ‘outside down’.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

It’s important to note, yesterday’s update said there would (likely) be an attempt to move higher.

That’s what happened; then, price action reversed.

The chart shows how short position, JDST-25-10, is being managed. Lowering the stop (higher for JDST) in the direction of the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, work has already been done on potential, significant reversal for gold and on-going, languishing of silver: Links here, here, here, here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279