Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The inverted chart of SPBIO above, shows price action has touched the 23.6%, level and is reversing.
The next chart has yet another Wyckoff spring set-up … equivalent to a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ on the regular, non-inverted chart.
Inverse fund LABD, is current trading at 22.77 – 22.83; far away from the session low at 21.77.
On a 4-Hour basis, the current bar has posted a new high.
The high for the morning session came at the open; 23.05
That high was exceeded when the next 4-hour bar posted at 23.10.
Why is that important?
It weights the probability to the upside for LABD.
That in turn weights probability we’ve seen the last of the downward corrective moves for LABD.
If so, we’re positioned for a major decline in biotech SPBIO.
If not, we’ve got an absolute hard-stop @ LABD 21.77 (not advice, not a recommendation)
At this point, it’s time to “Set the stop and walk away” as David Weis put it in his video.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The past 48 hours have closed lower for inverse, LABD.
The next four hours may be the key
Using the four-hour chart allows us to break each trading session into two parts (morning, afternoon) as shown above.
Doing this gives us a cleaner picture of what’s happening from a thrust energy perspective.
Thrust energy is a relative number: (Net distance)*(Volume)
The obvious part in the chart, thrust energy is rapidly dissipating as price nears the support area (blue line).
This action could be a secondary test of the spring set-up that has been discussed over the last week or so.
Secondary tests do happen but not that often.
At this juncture in the pre-market, LABD is set to open slightly lower; possibly opening right at the support line.
If time permits, another update will be generated after the morning session (the first four-hours) is complete.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The daily close of LABD, shows price action has penetrated another (lower) support level.
Close below support on the weakest down-thrust energy (and lowest volume) since LABD, started its corrective move on May 14th.
Everyone has their own preferred time-frame. Ours is probably longer than most.
If there’s going to be a meltdown in biotech or some kind of serious correction lower, a likely bottom for a sustained move (as said before) will be where they usually are … the third week of October.
Price action is the final arbiter. However, it (SPBIO) has not (yet) indicated it’s on a new bull run to new highs.
At this point, the market’s frustrating both longs and shorts … and doing a good job of it as well.
Our short position via LABD, is being maintained … but the finger is edging closer to the sell button; not advice, not a recommendation.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’ve already laid the ground work for dollar reversal here and here.
A reasonable expectation, reversal or not, is for the market to come back and test the support level.
Currently, in the pre-market, UUP is trading at 24.21 – 24.22, basically unchanged.
Since the divergences are taking place on the weekly chart, if there’s a reversal, it’s likely to be a sustained move.
For today, watch for UUP, to come back and test.
After that, a move higher may indicate sustained reversal is underway.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just a minute or two after LABD penetrated yesterday’s low, a huge block trade when by on the tape.
The trading platform used shows Level II, streaming Time & Sales with transactions color coded.
The color key is as follows:
Green, Buy
Red, Sell
Purple, Sell below bid
Yellow, Buy above ask
Grey, Transaction was (buy or sell) between the bid/ask
The large block was coded Yellow: Size 18,184 shares @ 24.2699
That equates to one trade with a value at $441,323.86 … essentially a half-million dollars.
What’s the point?
If there are too many stops at one area, trade execution is automatic. This type of behavior was detailed in a prior report, linked here.
It’s not unreasonable to think today’s action was for the purpose of allocating one trade at a half-mil. Novice traders and neophytes were used as the bait (setting their stops at yesterday’s low).
Setting the stops at that location would essentially make the computer algorithms go automatic to hit the stops (as described in the Martha Stokes’ link above).
Whoever made the block trade was willing to pay above ask so the entire transaction would be filled at once.
Looking at the 30-minute chart of LABD below, we see a near perfect descending line right into the lows of the prior session.
The first chart in this post has the actual close below support where the original forecast called it as a test.
The push below support on a print basis had occurred prior but the actual close below support (to complete the set-up) came two days later.
Here we are: Testing the spring set-up on a closing basis while potentially taking out the weak hands positioned long LABD.
It’s likely we’ll know tomorrow. If LABD price action opens higher and makes a new daily high, it’s a high reliability signal we’re under way.
If not, something else is at work … yet to be determined.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For argument’s sake, let’s just say we find out the speck came from Dubuque, Iowa.
There, problem solved.
Does that make anyone’s life any different?
Well, maybe for those in Dubuque but probably not anywhere else.
Meanwhile, the objective of constant distraction and obfuscation has accomplished its goal; ‘missed opportunities’.
That’s what it’s all about; has been for millennia.
Who decides what goes to press anyway?
Enough said.
We’re not going to get distracted with the carnival sideshow but stay focused on shorting biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).
Market Analysis:
The overall markets are up anywhere from +0.50% – 1.50%.
On the other side, we have biotech SPBIO; down -0.65%, with leveraged inverse fund LABD, up around +3.94%.
The original forecast chart for SPBIO (hourly inverted), has been updated to show where price action is at this juncture.
We’ll include all (three) charts for an easy visual on how the short (via LABD), is progressing
Newest chart first:
Price action looks like its finished testing and is now rising into the resistance area shown as the dotted line (chart above).
Reminder: It’s a forecast and it can fail (or morph) at any time.
However, thus far price action’s adhering well to probability behavior under the ‘spring’ set-up conditions.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
However, this go-round looks to be especially poignant.
Stay tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 