Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You don’t have to go more than 1:18, into this interview to get an inaccurate definition of inflation.
With that said, it does not keep the (delusional) bugs in the comment section from eating it up.
The interviewer, if he had the strength, could have stopped it right there and challenged with: ‘Inflation is defined as the expansion of credit that results in increased demand that in turn results in higher prices.’
At this point in time, we’re in credit destruction (i.e. Wells Fargo shutting down credit lines) not expansion … um, which is deflation not inflation.
At this point, it looks like there will be complete destruction first which brings us to the next bullet item.
No. 5
Only Problems. No Solutions
Personal Anecdote. Skip to No. 6, if not interested.
Back in the day as an Engineering Manager, there were times an employee (usually an engineer) would walk into my office and give me a list of problems on a particular project.
If this happened a second time, I would sort of gently (maybe) let them know, ‘If you bring me problems, you need to have solutions as well.’
I also let them know, if they were not able to come with solutions, I would map out a long-term action plan (basically starting documentation for termination) for their continued development.
How many YouTube sites talk endlessly about the problem?
It does not take much effort or thought or creativeness to tell us what we already know.
This site not only presents the problem(s), but also presents potential solution(s) or action(s).
Example:
Problem: Markets stretched to valuations beyond historical extremes. Traditional methods of analysis (P/E ratios, Book Value. etc.) no longer work. The market could ‘disconnect’ and be unavailable to trade for days or weeks at a time (think Klaus Schwab ‘cyber attack’).
Solution: (not advice, not a recommendation):
Identify a market and trading vehicle that has its own direction and is separated from the overall mass-hysteria. Position ‘in and out’, as required in that market until such time there are other opportunities of similar potential.
That market thus far, has been identified as biotech, SPBIO. The trading vehicle is LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Any disconnect or surprise event is already factored in as a likely positive for the position taken, i.e. being short biotech
We’re not only taking this approach for the current market environment but the supply chain as well.
The supply chain shut down and the potential famine that will ensue, is one of, if not the main reason(s) silver and gold may be of no use (at least temporarily) in the troubles to come.
Well, it would not be a compete ‘Notes’ update without mention of Scaboo.
Here he is at his new home … a few miles north of town.
As mentioned in the last update, the hen that gave him trouble at the outset, well, he’s got that all sorted out.
According to his new owners, he takes his job seriously.
He protects the hens and is meticulous about getting them into their coop at night. He then goes to his own coop; sort of a personal man-cave.
This picture was taken by the new owner.
You have to figure they must be pleased with him to wait long enough to capture such a majestic pose.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Maybe, it turns out that some people don’t want to be in the spotlight after all.
Click on the link.
See if your jaw doesn’t drop with how casually the interview discusses things we (the serfs) should not know.
That interview (at least the ‘tweet’) is from February, this year. So, maybe this is old news to some.
Even so, it’s just one of the many bricks in the wall for biotech.
With that said, let’s take a look at our chief cook and bottle washer: SPBIO
SPBIO (and inverse, LABD) Analysis:
The last update said that we expected SPBIO, to decline and LABD, to rise from current levels.
That’s exactly what happened.
As usual, we’ll start with the unmarked chart:
Obviously, biotech’s not moving higher.
At Friday’s close, it’s down – 28.4%, from the all time highs posted February, this year.
Market Insight:
The ‘tweet’ in the link above, is dated February 9th, 2021.
The all time high for biotech SPBIO, was the very same day: February 9th, 2021.
Remember, there are no coincidences.
Let’s mark up the daily chart; showing that Friday was an outside-down (key reversal) day.
The right-most area of the chart has been zoomed-in.
Higher high, lower low and lower close:
The next chart is where it gets interesting.
We’ve included a Fibonacci projection; going from all time highs to lows in May and then counter-trend high on June 28th:
It’s clear the 23.6%, projection level has been an axis line.
SPBIO, price action has oscillated about this area for months.
With Thursday’s ‘a-b-c’ corrective move and Friday’s outside-down reversal, that axis oscillation may be complete.
If SPBIO is to head lower from this point (which is expected), we’ll watch to see if price action ‘respects’ the Fibonacci projections; that is, will price action head lower to 38%, then 50%, and on?
Positioning:
Friday was a good day to be short via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech, is nowhere near all time highs. The sector is essentially running neck-and-neck with GDX, to the downside.
The expectation’s for SPBIO to head lower in the coming week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, this morning’s action in gold (GLD) tells us, it’s not a bull market.
The asylum escapees (gold bulls) from yesterday, might paint today’s action as a buying opportunity.
Well, it could be a buying opportunity for short term trades (not advice, not a recommendation) but that’s not what this site is about.
Bull markets do not let you get aboard comfortably.
Case in point:
For those old enough to remember, harken back to the bull market launch of 1995.
Remember that?
It seemed like every day was up into new highs with nary a retracement until a year and a half later.
No, there’s something else going on with gold.
It may indeed continue to move lower from here. However, there’s a price action feel that’s not right.
GLD:
Potential Coup D’état Set-Up ?
Those who own the gold market(s) know full well, there’s a bunch of rabid ‘collapse’ types who believe the metal’s their salvation ticket out of events to come.
Those in control, need to get as many as possible on the wrong side of the trade before there can be a sustained long-term (or fast and sharp) down move.
Such a move, if it goes low enough and fast enough, would likely take out the majority of the ‘stacking’ community.
Looking at the un-marked chart of gold (GLD), just where would that location be … where everyone, except the few, are positioned incorrectly?
As discussed previously, the area shown below would be a good location for an up-thrust (reversal) condition.
In addition, that location’s between the 38% and 50%, retrace level(s) from August 2020, to March 2021.
One can speculate on just what would cause or enable a last-gasp push higher above the GLD 171, level.
Well, for starters, how about a massive volcanic eruption that results in long-term destruction on both sides of the Atlantic.
As Dan (I Allegedly) says with his post just out, ‘the economy is in a perfect storm’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.
If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂
Lastly, Biotech (LABD):
First: Did we exit LABD?
Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)
Second: Why?
The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.
However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.
The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.
The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:
At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.
These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.
Positioning:
My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).
Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re using the leveraged inverse fund LABD, for our analysis (SPBIO down, LABD up).
Yesterday, closed with the 4-Hour chart above.
Annotating with Force Index numbers; each early session 4-Hour bar for the past two days, has been posted on decreasing downward thrust (last two magenta down-arrows).
In addition, the first four hours of the last session penetrated support and then retraced in the next four hours (last bar).
That sets up a spring condition as shown:
Taking Forever?
If this really is the crest of a major (overall market) reversal, we need to remind ourselves, it’s a massive juggernaut.
Said many times, we (my firm) are looking and working on the big move (not advice, not a recommendation).
By definition, it’s not a popular method.
Nothing seems to be happening … until it does. Then, it’s too late to position.
Pre-Market:
With about 17-minutes to go before the open, LABD is trading unchanged.
Obviously, the first four hours of trade will be important.
The market (LABD) could continue to grind lower … or we may be at the end of the counter-trend move; ready to reverse upward for LABD and down for SPBIO.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?
A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.
The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.
The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.
No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.
They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.
If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.
Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.
It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.
However, they might have a purpose.
It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.
This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.
As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.
The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.
Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.
Southwest Airlines:
The company has made its move.
The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.
It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.
It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.
Economic Shutdown:
As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?
What if it’s a mass exodus?
Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?
If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.
A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.
However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).
The shelves are empty … for that item at least.
Mass Psychological Shift
Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?
Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?
Genesis 41
What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?
Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.
That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.
Silver and gold are great if you already have it.
However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.
That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).
When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.
When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The best way to hide something, is to put it out there for all to see:
In plain sight
However, for the oligarch’s target audience, the proletariat, they can’t actually ‘see’. It’s all by design.
They’re hypnotized, programmed, demoralized; just doing and not thinking.
Which home improvement center has the tag line played over and over through their speaker system (paraphrasing) ‘doers getting things done’.
If you think about it, ‘Doers’ don’t think. They just ‘do’. A perfectly controllable, mindless herd.
Going one step further, is to have these proles so mentally damaged, they actually think, there’re thinking.
Which brings us to our chief cook and bottle washer for the day: Southwest Airlines
Southwest Cancels Flights:
The official company line is cancellations were due to weather which is obviously not true.
This report from KHOU in Houston, says the cancellations were about something else. It’s in the title but that’s not what the news story’s really about.
Go ahead and watch. Stop the video after thirty seconds and tell me (figuratively) what’s the real intent.
If you can ‘see’, it’ll be obvious.
Actually, this was an easy one.
This news story has nothing to do with cancellations and everything to do with ‘compliance.’
Present the image over and over of compliance (masks) and then it takes on a life of its own.
For example, we can see that type of compliance in this Facebook post (at left) put out in my area just yesterday.
It’s not hard to surmise (and tragically, so) there’s probably not going to be a ‘Second Year’ photo shoot.
This Is Now:
I have family members that essentially fall into two camps:
The first, plugs their ears and chant “la, la, la, it’s not happening”.
The other camp mumbles over and over (for years now) “it shouldn’t be this way”.
Neither camp has, is, or will do anything to get ready.
Icing on the cake is the typical response of, ‘Your information’s not from a reputable source’.
What, like Fox News?
You may, and probably do have similar stories.
In line with it’s not happening, or the government should fix it so it won’t be this way, we have Dan from I Allegedly.
He just posted another update. At time stamp 20:20, people are still expecting a fourth stimulus check.
That’s something else that’s not happening.
Which all brings us to what really is happening … our second topic of the day: Biotech
Biotech SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
It’s been an up day for biotech (down for LABD) thus far but that’s not the real story.
The chart below is from earlier in the session. We’re looking at the leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the hourly basis:
Next, we have our ‘usual suspects’ mark-up showing us the potential opportunity:
From a personal standpoint, being short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) has been tiring.
Especially on days like today.
You can watch your main account fluctuate (in the red) by what used to be, in the corporate world, two to four week’s pay; all happening in a single hour.
However, even as this post is being created, we now have LABD posting the following:
Upside action off the spring looks strong. However, there could still be a downward test.
SPBIO, Last Chance?:
Intuitively, this could be it for biotech (SPBIO) to the upside.
The reason for that conclusion is:
If the spring set up holds with sustained upward action in LABD, it sets up a potential measured move condition (not shown); targeting LABD to much higher levels.
In that case, SPBIO would move lower … much lower and possibly well past any nearby major support.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘Way hay and … up she rises … early in the morning.’
Left out of the beautiful rendition above, is the following:
Put him in the bed with the captain’s daughter Put him in the bed with the captain’s daughter Put him in the bed with the captain’s daughter Early in the morning’
One of, if not the largest ‘storable food’ supplier closes down because it can’t get product.
Is the local bullion dealer closing down for three months?
I’m not against the metals.
I’m against, the abdication of honor, character, and bravery just so I can grow my YouTube channel with popular ‘stacking’ clips.
Pointing one’s followers single-mindedly to ‘stacking’ (as the means to survive the collapse) by definition, points them away from understanding what’s happening on a world-wide basis.
If you watch the old TV shows like Gunsmoke, The Rifleman, Superman, and on, one theme keeps repeating.
That is, the disgust for cowardice; especially from the women and rightly so.
It really must have been a big deal back then. If you were labeled a coward or ‘yellow’, your life was basically over.
We all have our areas of ‘fear’ and the author here, being no exception.
Maybe, just maybe after it’s all over, if Hollywood’s still around (I won’t be sad if they’re not), they might figure it’s a good idea to toss the CGI.
I’m not holding my breath.
No. 10
The Elephant’s ‘Knew’
No one told the elephant tribe, their benefactor and protector had died (time stamp: 3:48).
They just knew (a phenomenon discussed previously) and traveled 12-hours to pay respects.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.
It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.
This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.
Brutal, But Beneficial:
Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.
Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.
There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.
For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.
No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.
With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.
For example:
If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?
Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.
We may be on the cusp of that now.
Not Advice:
With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.
Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.
What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.
What’s the market saying about itself?
If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.
Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX
What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.
GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:
The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.
Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.
If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.
In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.
They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’
It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.
One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.
Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 