Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Carvana … ‘Day 89’

June 26, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Hindenburg, Positions

Reversal & Channel

Using the ‘Way Back Machine’, and this post, we see Fibonacci time correlation with respect to the February 19th, high.

As noted, ‘Day 89’, was shown as June 26th, which is today.

From the chart, it appears CVNA, reversed yesterday, and today, has potentially verified a trading channel.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The channel lines shown, are exactly parallel and declining @ 99.9%, annualized.

As of this post, price action has penetrated minor support in the 308.70-area, so there’s a potential for an attempt to rally into the close.

While there could be a rally to post new (daily) highs, the fundamental backdrop, link here, favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short as CVNA-25-06, with stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s Breakout Fails

June 25, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-04, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, NEM, Positions, Up-Thrust

Long Awaited

Yesterday, Newmont was hanging on, trying to post higher after its failed breakout.

Today, could be the day where it continues down (not advice, not a recommendation).

With about thirty minutes before the open, NEM is trading slightly lower.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

Note how the ‘wide high-volume bar’, has been tested. It took eight months to do it, but it happened.

Gold (GLD) is still near all-time highs, yet Newmont, is far below its all-time high; about -33%, (from April 2022).

Currently short this sector via DUST, as DUST-25-04, with stop at or near yesterday’s DUST low of 24.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla Nears (short) Target

June 24, 2025 By in TSLA

Rock & Hard Place

If, or when, Tesla penetrates resistance (shown below), it’s likely to be between a rock, and a hard place.

This type of potential set-up, occurs over and again in the markets.

Usually, there’s some kind of ‘reason’ for the move; a likely suspect, link here.

We should also keep in mind, the ‘marriage’ between Tesla and the administration is over, link here.

What could that mean for the future of EV subsidies? (not advice, not a recommendation)

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

As shown, Thursday, June 5th, was the largest single day down-thrust energy, ever.

When looking at the weekly (not shown), downthrust Force Index for week ending June 6th, was also the largest, ever.

So, we have record level downward thrust on two timeframes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market Action & Stops

June 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, WMT, WMT-25-02, XBI

Watch The Highs

All three short positions discussed in last night’s update are trading lower in the pre-market session.

On a percentage basis, Carvana (CVNA) is down the most by about -1%.

At this point, the trading plan is simple; stops for all three are at, or near, the last session highs (not advice not a recommendation).

Moving on, we have an index that may be getting interesting, biotech XBI.

Back in late May, was this post.

Let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

A casual inspection of the chart shows price action ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci retrace levels.

For the past two weeks, XBI has drifted lower without decisive conviction.

It could continue its path to lower levels.

However, for a dynamic, sustained move, we need some type of catalyst, like taking out the (potential) stops at the location noted.

On the sidelines for now (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 22, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, GLD, Gold & Silver, Positions, WMT, WMT-25-02, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Gold’s ‘Rally Fatigue’

If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?

Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.

The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.

Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.

However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.

Strategy First

Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.

With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):

CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02

Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The (coming) Paywall

June 21, 2025 By in Greg Hunter, Karen Kingston Tags:

Combatting, The Theft

Notice:

For several years, strategy, ideas, or analysis posted on this site, have been stolen, copied, ‘coincidentally’ presented a day-later, on YouTube, or in financial publications (nearly, word-for-word) without reference to the source.

The most recent of these (potential) occurrences was just days ago … we’ll leave it there.

Since others see fit to use this material without reference, and to combat the incessant theft, a paywall needs to be implemented; details of which, forthcoming.

This (paywall) action is no different than what Karen Kingston lamented during interviews with Greg Hunter.

People were stealing her biotech research, then going on to publish it, as if it was their own.

Ladies and gentlemen, the (economic) tide is going out. Have a short-list of ‘trusted contacts’. This site would like to be one of them.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Closes The ‘Gap’

June 20, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, KMX, Positions

Good News … Maybe

Carvana was up today on good news from rival CarMax, link here.

Today’s action in CVNA (segment at left), closes the gap (blue arrow) discussed in this update.

Adding intrigue, we have links like this.

Currently short CVNA, (CVNA-25-05), with stop near today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Then & Now

June 19, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-04, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

‘Somebody, Always Knows …’

CrowdStrike may have reached a top, or maybe ‘the’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, this update could be part of a series.

With the chart below, we’re going to start first with ‘then’, and also first, with some background on the cyber ‘glitch’.

Background

The software crash of July 19th, 2024, was the result of an update, not external cyber-attack, link here.

Damage as result of lost revenue (for subscribers), was in the $Billions … with a ‘B’. 🙂

The effects of that loss are still reverberating, evidenced by CrowdStrike’s earnings, links here, here, and last year, here.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As noted (on the chart), there was clear evidence something was wrong, well before the ‘glitch’.

The most recent earnings release saw a sharp drop, -8.9%, at the lows; volume doubled from the prior session.

Then, nine trading days later, CRWD, inches to a new all-time high.

Yesterday’s action was down with a potential ‘change of character’.

Currently short: CRWD-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana (short) Targets

June 18, 2025 By in CVNA 2 Comments

Gap Theory

Will Carvana close the gap, posted last Friday, the 13th?

With the caveat that anything can happen, markets tend to come back (up) for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of CVNA, that ‘test’ area also corresponds to a 50%, Fibonacci retrace, as shown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The Fibonacci Day 89 (from the February 19th, high), is marked as the red arrow and vertical line.

That day, June 26th, also corresponds to a Fibonacci 8 Days from the low just posted, this past Monday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart, Support Crumbles

June 17, 2025 By in Positions, WMT, WMT-25-01

Consecutive Sessions, Lower

For WMT, the past ten trading sessions, have all closed lower.

Performing a quick (visual) look on WMT daily data, there has been no other occurrence of ten consecutive lower closes, going back to 7/1/19 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s close for WMT was 94.25; after-hours (as of 8:12 p.m., EST) has WMT, continuing down slightly, at 94.03.

Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly

As noted, there was an attempted breakout that has failed.

The blue line is now a significant resistance level.

Currently short (WMT-25-01), with a tight stop at today’s high, 94.82 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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