Category Archives: Artificial Intelligence

CrowdStrike … Tests Breakdown

December 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, CRWD, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Similar to Caterpillar

Our favorite chief, cook, and bottle washer of the negative P/E, currently standing at -379, is about the same as the last update.

The difference from then, is that price action has got itself into a potential test of a wedge breakdown.

Ever since the ‘update glitch‘ wipeout, it’s never been the same for CRWD.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close

Yesterday’s action closed higher. So far today, trading is continuing the move.

It’s important to note that volume is not remarkable; meaning, the last high-volume day was at the earnings release on December 2nd, and 3rd.

Unlike CAT, in the prior update, we don’t have a decisive indicator (volume) for a trend break (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s as if CRWD, is banging around (with low volume), trying to find a direction.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Caterpillar (CAT) Breakdown

December 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, Edward Dowd 2 Comments

Trend Break … Then Test

There’s more than one way to position for the A.I. and ‘datacenter’ implosion.

As Ed Dowd stated in a recent interview, (paraphrasing):

‘Once the unwind starts, it’s going to happen fast.’

With the CAT trend break, we may be there, at the ‘unwind’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

If CAT manages to close higher for the day, it will be Fibonacci Day 5, from the all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading Intel’s Downside

December 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Semiconductors, SOXX

Will Today be a Test?

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

With the overall semiconductor index higher in the pre-market, it’s possible INTC could use today to grind its way higher into a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart shows we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal), then a -7.45% drop (ease-of-movement) to minor support levels.

intel INTC, Daily

The blue-line, resistance, is also the 50% retrace from highs of January 2020 to the lows of April, this year.

The objective is to see if the range narrows (upside) between yesterday’s low and high, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the pre-market (7:40 a.m., EST), INTC is trading slightly higher (+0.46) pts).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amazon ‘Tests’ Reversal

December 4, 2025 By in AMZN, Artificial Intelligence

Potential Channel

It’s possible, ‘All the King’s horses and all the King’s men won’t be able to put Amazon back together again’ (not advice, not a recommendation)

Amazon posted all-time highs on earnings coupled with so-called A.I. (efficiency) gains; labeled as ‘Up-Thrust’.

Then it collapsed, -17% before coming back to test resistance (blue line).

Then, it reversed (down) again.

Note: ‘Test’ was Fibonacci 21 Days, from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s Downside Channel

December 1, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

If, The Bubble Has Burst …

The case is building for Nvidia’s downside reversal; this morning’s pre-market action, is no exception (not advice not a recommendation).

With the caveat that anything can happen, we have in the chart below, nascent confirmation(s) of a downside channel.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Within the channel, we’re also in Wyckoff Spring position (testing support), ready to move higher.

However, springs can fail.

If Nivida opens lower in the regular session (currently, 8:05 a.m., EST), ‘normal’ market behavior is an attempt to close the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Euphoria to Anxiety

November 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors

Grinding Lower

It’s been a Fibonacci 21-trading days since Nvidia’s all-time high.

As of today in the pre-market, we’re down -16.5% from those highs.

Of course, anything can happen and NVDA could recover.

However, as presented in this post, if you’ve ‘sold-out’, then what’s next?

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

Lower lows, lower highs; the definition of a downtrend (not advice not a recommendation).

The downtrend can end at any time.

For that to be apparent (at this juncture), NVDA will need to close above the high of this past Monday, at 182.55.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Watch

November 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Carvana, as Well

It’s possible by the close of the day, both SOXX, and CVNA, will be in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

As of this post (11:10 a.m., EST), the SOXX is literally screaming higher … but still below resistance levels.

As for Carvana, the 332.33 level has been discussed many times, link here and here.

A close above that level puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Comments’ for The Week

November 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Comments, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

Progression of Thought

The following links are a summary of market related comments (made on other channels or platforms) for the week.

This past week has been interesting, with potential kick-off, of the A.I. implosion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tuesday

The crash of 1899 was in December. So, it’s happened before … (link here).

Wednesday

Tomorrow will (likely) be an interesting day. For the SOXX, a move above or around 294 – 296, will likely take out the shorts. (link here)

Thursday

Nvidia has already peaked (October 29th). Today’s action was a ‘test’ of that reversal. Watch to see if NVDA closes lower for the day. (link here)

Summary

The SOXX, never made it to the target range. Highest print for last Thursday, was 289.99; then, it collapsed.

Nvidia action for that day looked like a test; then closed lower for the day … then lower again, the next day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Stop-n-Go, Congestion

November 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-16, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Fighting it Out

Carvana’s been fighting it out in a congestion area for over two weeks.

Before that, the chart shows long-term trend (and wedge), had already broken to the downside.

Looking at the totality of the CVNA trading range, from lows near 4, to highs around 390, the congestion action looks quite narrow.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Note: The insert is an expanded view, showing the breakdown and test.

With release of NVDA earnings, the prior update implied the A.I. bubble may have officially popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279