Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana … Edge of The Abyss

March 19, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , 1 Comment

There Is No Bounce …

Normal market behavior when penetrating well established support, is some kind of bounce … higher.

What happens, when that doesn’t happen?

What does it mean?

Well, one way to think about it, is this link.

Experts Say: ‘There Is No Recession’

Since 1980, This Has Signaled The Lows Are In: Link here.

Is It Safe to Get Back In? Link here

Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.

Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂

Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.

David Weis 1980s

Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.

He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):

‘We considered none of these things …’

That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.

With that, we have Carvana.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

What can be said?

After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.

This post is coming out before the regular open.

CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.

The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.

While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Then, Alcoa Is ‘Compressed’

March 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, AA, Basic Materials, Biotech, CVNA, GDX, GDXJ, Gold Miners, IYM, NEM, Prechter, RGLD, South Sea Bubble, SPBIO, XBI

Another One

Yesterday, biotech had moving average compression; today, it’s Alcoa.

In this case, we’ll present the monthly chart, showing the long-term picture.

As we’ll see, moving average compression is rare, especially when using the longer time-frames.

In the case of Alcoa (AA), you have to go all the way back to 1978, to find a similar event.

The Big Bubble

Referring to Prechter’s analysis link here, he states that we’re [potentially], in the largest asset bubble since the South Sea, over 300-years ago.

Let’s keep that in mind. Events are happening on such a massive scale; the typical observer may not be aware of the significance and/or the rarity.

Alcoa AA, Monthly

The zoom areas are side-by-side to show the similarity.

Expanding the chart and including the wedge notation, also shows price action at the lower boundary.

It should be noted, AA, is part of the ‘Basic Materials’ sector, with tracking ETF as IYM.

Included in the IYM components, is NEM, and RGLD; this sector is correlated with the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Positioning

It’s the trader’s discretion as what to do at this point.

This site may or may not execute a direct short of Alcoa, just as it might do with Carvana (CVNA), and maybe others (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Whacked, Punch Drunk

March 2, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg

Reeling From The Hit

February 19th, after hours action, Carvana posted 310 as the high; then, three days later, the lows at 207.85:

That’s a direct hit of -33%

Then, incredibly, short interest does not increase but decreases (from just over 10%) to 7.8%; you can’t make this up.

Emotionally Exhausted:

If you’d been short this (vending machine) ‘disruptor’ for nigh on two years, as it rachets ever higher, and then it finally, breaks down … what would you do?

You’d probably be emotionally (maybe financially) exhausted, tired of watching the never-ending grind higher and cover (whatever’s left of) your shorts.

Wheels Off

As Hindenburg reports, Carvana has some interesting ‘fundamentals’.

With that, let’s look at the most likely area for a possible punch-drunk recovery top, and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The price bar with the heaviest volume was the day after the earnings release as shown.

That bar’s close is right around the 50% retrace.

However, if we extend the top of the retrace tool to start at the after-hours 310, mark (and not regular session high of 292.84), the 50% retrace now becomes the 38.2%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

As Expected, … Carvana, Crushed

February 22, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CVNA, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ

Using The Nvidia Model

In the after-hours, post-earnings, Carvana spiked to exactly 310, the lower end of the range presented here.

Then, ending the (regular session) week down nearly -22%.

In a similar fashion, Nvidia had its own collapse; down -17%, on ‘DeepSeek’ fears.

As always, the question is, ‘what happens next?’

This Plan, or That

From here, literally, anything can happen.

Carvana could continue straight down and implode (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could do nothing and just post sideways action from here; not likely, but it could.

Or, behind Door Number 3, Carvana model’s Nvidia.

That is, finishing its initial downward thrust, then a retrace to test the wide bar(s), high volume.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

On a percentage basis, CVNA has weaker action (which may not be finished) than NVDA.

The ‘Short’ Side

If the market begins a persistent decline, will the SEC ban short selling as it did in 2008, link here.

It’s important to note, immediately after that announcement, the market absolutely cratered on massive volatility; the Qs dropped over -41%, from that point.

This time around (if it happens), with a new Sheriff, will there be a short-selling ban?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana ‘Targets’

February 15, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?’

We’re just two trading days away from Carvana’s earnings release (link here).

Is that when the plug is pulled?

The ‘fundamentals‘ of this entity are interesting to say the least.

Shorts Grinding Down

Short interest has finally broken below the 10% area; now at 8.5%, link here.

Is the final squeeze coming?

Carvana CVNA, Monthly

In this post, the idea was advanced, CVNA might move higher into the earnings release; maybe even make a new all-time-high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Using the monthly scale, a Fibonacci projection has been overlaid on the chart.

The black dashed line is the 1,794.4%, projection off the first wave upside (and test) from the December 2022, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen.

Earnings release and conference call are scheduled for after-hours, on Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, What Could Go Wrong?

February 11, 2025 By in CVNA, ZeroHedge

How About That P/E, ‘only’ 32,000 !!!

A ‘Supernova’ P/E.

Will it blow up?

If so, when?

Earnings release, scheduled for the 19th (after-hours), link here.

Possible Outcome(s)

Here’s a hint of what’s likely to happen, link here and here.

So, one month after the election (and now that all is well) the ‘consumer’ is back at it; profligate spending.

The spending ‘surge’ may have spilled over into the auto sector; possible result, positive earnings for CVNA (not advice, not a recommendation).

You can almost see where this is going.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Carvana has just posted a new daily high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … New, All-Time-Highs ?

January 30, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg Tags: , , , ,

The ‘Measured Move’

According to this link, the wheels have already come off.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, ‘financials’ have nothing to do with prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s all about manipulation and what the manipulators are trying to achieve.

At this point, Carvana refuses to go lower. That’s a fact.

So, if it’s not going lower, just what is happening?

A better way to ask the question:

‘What’s it going to take to trap unsuspecting ‘investors’ and extract the largest amount of funds from them in the shortest possible time?

How about new all-time highs on an earnings release (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

The all-time-high for Carvana, is 376.83, posted during the week of August 13, 2021 (source TC2000).

Next earnings is on February 19, link here.

Let’s see what happens next

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hugs The Line

January 24, 2025 By in CVNA, SOXX

Morbid Curiosity

Is Carvana the ‘Enron’ of our time?

Back in the day, it seemed like Enron was everywhere.

Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, sponsored by Enron, remember that?

At this point, it’s somewhat of a morbid curiosity to see how this all plays out.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

This week was a short-range bar when compared to the week before.

Upward momentum appears to be slowing.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s ‘Break’ Test Dummy

January 16, 2025 By in CVNA, Great Depression 2.0 Tags: , , , ,

Time & Targets

Will it be like the old Ted Nugent song?

‘Kamikaze from the hundredth floor. Swan dive to the street.’

The last update wasn’t quite sure if we’d finished testing the trend break.

Now, with this morning’s session, there are more clues we may be getting closer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking back, this update had target(s) where price action could post before continuing the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It was thought we’d get a rebound off the trendline. Instead, it looks like a test of the break.

No matter ‘how’ price action got to the target(s), it’s at the target. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (11:26 a.m., EST), CVNA high for the day is 232.80, in the prior target range of ‘227 – 233’.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 34 (+1) from the all-time high posted on November 25th, last year.

If there’s going to be a reversal, price and ‘time’ requirements have been met (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, this update with Carvana (Hindenburg) ‘fundamentals’ in place.

Along with yesterday’s update, rate of economic decline increasing, it’s probable we’re nearing some type of inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279