The top 30% of components for the XLV sector, are drug companies.
Then, comes UnitedHealth UNH, rounding it out to about 36%, of market cap.
No matter what happens with news like this, the overall landscape is shifting, link here.
As for the ‘elephant’, listening to a few select interviews of Ed Dowd via Daniela Cambone, Peak Financial, Gerg Hunter, Thoughtful Money, and others, then, you already know.
Click those names on the side-bar tag, for more research.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This is not 1980, or 2011, says the report at this link. Website, link here.
The premise for ‘it’s different’, is the demand for ‘physical delivery’.
The chart in yesterday’s post, showed tracking fund SLV, very close to its Fibonacci 161.8% projection, near 76.30.
If we refer back to recent interviews with Ed Dowd, and to some extent, Bert Dohmen, they both talk about the current bubble(s).
However, Ed Dowd in particular, discusses the potential for a ‘deflation scare’.
That in turn, allows a provocative thought:
Maybe, deflationary pressures are so intense, the only way to get a blow-off mania spike (this time), is to demand delivery and stress the infrastructure (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.
Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).
Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.
Expedia EXPE, Quarterly
The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.
A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.
EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.
Edge of The Wedge
The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There’s plenty of discussion about A.I. saving the day.
Ed Dowd has presented in his interviews, from an overall economic standpoint, the A.I. ‘excuse’ for efficiency improvements, layoffs, is just a ruse to cover the fact, demand is collapsing.
With that said, AMZN has broken the downside of its wedge and has potentially completed a test of that break.
With futures to open soon, we might find out (today) if downside action is to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last update, showed a wedge ‘throw-over’, then questioned (upper right of chart), ‘Will there be a test?’
Well, indeed there was a test (shown below). What happens next?
From one of Ed Dowd’s latest interviews, link here (Time Stamp: 4:30), he talks about ‘intervention’ within the A.I. bubble. He’s referring to news of this link.
His point: He thinks as a result of government equity stake, there could be ‘one more thrust higher’ before reversal.
The suggestion on this site, the news is already out.
The thrust higher may have already happened (not advice, not a recommendation).
Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close
There’s always the possibility of a secondary test.
However, if NVDA has actually completed its throw-over test, and reversed, the example at this link (video), shows it can all fall apart very quickly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.
That’s the ‘implosion’?
Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The chart insert at left, shows Senior Miners, GDX, have bounced off support (blue line), making another attempt at a retrace.
The lower magenta dashed line is 38.2%, with the 50% level, as the upper line.
If this retrace attempt fails by posting successive lows below ‘support’, it indicates we may already be in the ‘deflationary scare’ as discussed by Ed Dowd many times in his interviews (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note the dollar (UUP proxy) is currently in a rally.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.
So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.
‘Isolated’
That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.
Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?
Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.
Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close
We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.
After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.
Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.
It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.
As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 