The chart insert at left, shows Senior Miners, GDX, have bounced off support (blue line), making another attempt at a retrace.
The lower magenta dashed line is 38.2%, with the 50% level, as the upper line.
If this retrace attempt fails by posting successive lows below ‘support’, it indicates we may already be in the ‘deflationary scare’ as discussed by Ed Dowd many times in his interviews (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note the dollar (UUP proxy) is currently in a rally.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.
So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.
‘Isolated’
That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.
Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?
Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.
Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close
We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.
After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.
Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.
It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.
As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The section at left, shows the bank (KRE) rebound from last Thursday’s sell-off, losing steam.
In the early part of this interview with Ed Dowd, he states the banks are ‘rolling over’ as a result of a ‘toxic brew’ of economic conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As Ed Dowd says in this interview (time stamp: 19:16), somebody in the banking system’s holding The Old Maid.
As the overall markets continue to form what looks to be a top, maybe ‘the’ top, a process of (trade) iteration is occurring.
The objective is to determine which sector is the most vulnerable.
Short positions in the Dow and the SOXX have both been stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).
With implosion of Tricolor Auto and now First Brands, the market itself is telling us, look at financial sector(s).
With that said, short positions have been opened in XLF, and KRE; both of which so far, are holding below their early session highs (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.
On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.
Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.
Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).
Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).
Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily
If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.
The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.
The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.
DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.
Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Weekend Wait
Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.
Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.
As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
UBER’s earnings were stellar; why’s the stock heading lower?
From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the question’s not relevant.
We pay no attention to financial news, or news of any kind.
The real question, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’
UBER, Daily
The repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.
On a longer, monthly timeframe (not shown), there’s a massive MACD bearish divergence; telling us, opportunity favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
To minimize risk as much as possible, we’re looking for price action to rise into the close, narrowing the distance between entry and stop.
The stop would be (if a trade is placed) at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Economic Conditions.
Another interview with Ed Dowd, has surfaced, link here.
As one of the comments noted, ‘this is the best synopsis of actual market conditions presented, to-date’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 