Category Archives: Financial Sector

Financials … Test & Low

July 29, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Up-Thrust, XLF, XLF-25-04

Reducing The Risk

In a quiet, almost imperceptible move, financial sector, XLF has topped, reversed, now printed a new daily low.

Yesterday’s update said there might be higher action into the day’s close.

It looks like that ‘higher’ action, was today.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows there’s no ‘reversal’ bar like we see in trading textbooks.

The (short) entry signal was: Breakout to all-time highs, then, next day printing a new daily low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, today, we have another daily low.

Positioning

An initial (small size) short was opened late yesterday, XLF-25-04. As price action rose into its test early this session, the short was increased (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector, XLF, Highs

July 28, 2025 By in BAC-25-04, CRWD-25-09, CVNA-25-08, Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX-25-08, Up-Thrust, XLF 1 Comment

Then, A New Daily Low

On Friday, financial sector XLF, posted all-time-highs.

Then, today in the late session, XLF, just posted a new daily low.

We’re at the extreme, The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong (on a short), is least (not advice not a recommendation).

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest the market indices are stretched. The latest installment is here.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Daily

The XLF, is in up-thrust condition.

Posting a new daily low provides the risk on a short trade; yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

That new daily low, puts XLF in a minor spring position; there’s a probability of some upside going into the close.

If so, that further narrows the risk on a short.

Positioning

All other positions have been closed except, SOXX-25-08.

Depending on price action, the plan is short XLF, if it rises into the close (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector XLF … Set-Up

July 22, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XLF

In The Pattern

Depending on price action, we’ll get into the long-term view of Finacial Sector XLF, later.

For now, on the hourly timeframe, we’ve seen it before: Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With about forty minutes before the open, it looks as if XLF, will come back up to resistance for a test.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Hourly

Spring and Up-Thrust, are labeled ‘S’ and ‘U’ respectively.

In other markets, the SOXX posted lower overnight; it’s trying its best to rally pre-market, into a higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats (again)

February 10, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, FAZ, FAZ-25-01, Financial Sector, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XLF

Another (repeating) Set-Up

This time, it’s the financial sector, XLF.

Top ten components for XLF, are listed here.

For today’s session (as of 12:27 p.m., EST), all but one of the ten are trading lower.

Financial, XLF, Daily

When looking at the chart, the set-up is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

Similar to yesterday’s update with ProLogis, XLF, made two attempts to push past resistance … that so far have failed.

Today’s action has ‘ease of movement’ to the downside.

The sidebar notes and open (short) position in XLF, as FAZ-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately:

The short in IYR, via DRV, was closed early in this session as PLD, made a (very slight) new daily high, indicating possible hesitation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)..

It may still work out but the market that’s moving to the downside now, is XLF (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Tops-Out?

August 12, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-24-02, FAZ, FAZ-24-01, Financial Sector, IYR, Real Estate, XLF, ZeroHedge

Series of Lower Highs

Real estate may have been held up by the expectation of lower rates.

With those rates, it’s been on-again, off-again, then back on again, only to go back off again.

Let’s not forget the real possibility, the entire dataset (employment, jobless claims et al.) could be fake. 🙂

So, it’s a good thing with Wyckoff, we’re not looking at so-called ‘data’ but the truth; the price action itself.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

We’ve got a series of lower highs.

No doubt, the price action is very subtle … slowing eroding away without much fanfare.

With this morning’s session, we have a new daily low.

If short, a good place for a stop would be yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Housekeeping.

From the last post on XLF, today’s session has essentially been a combination of the two scenarios.

As a result (and according to the trading plan), the short FAZ-24-01, was closed with a marginal profit of 0.62%.

The sector may still go into a sustained decline. However, it did not perform to expectations and therefore, exited.

As Elder said years ago, ‘when in doubt get out.’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When To Go ‘Short’

August 11, 2024 By in Ed Dowd, FAZ, FAZ-24-01, Financial Sector, Kitco News, XLF 1 Comment

Buy or Sell at The Danger Point®

While the financial press (pictured at left) is fumbling around, trying to figure out if the market’s up or down, for this site it’s not about ‘up’ or ‘down’, but what the market itself is telling us.

Case in point, this past week.

Remember, at the beginning of the week, major brokers blew-up and locked up.

You couldn’t log-on whether long or short.

Surprising Speed

Posts on this site gave numerous clues (prior to last Monday), that we’re at risk of a downturn.

Two examples of potential downside were August 1st, Carvana’s ‘Interesting’ Numbers, posted here; the next day, Correction … or … Crash? posted here.

All released well before the Monday, August 5th, wipeout.

One thing to note as Ed Dowd points out (link here) is the speed of the downdraft.

Was this past Monday’s market action (and brokerage blow-ups) part of the new paradigm, the new normal?

With that, let’s take a look at what’s likely to happen (or set-up), next. The last post showed a potential short sale set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Finance Sector XLF, Daily

If price action continues higher, shown as the inserted back bar, the plan is to stand aside or exit, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, if we get downward action posting a new daily low, shown as the magenta bar, that’s a potential short entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, not shown is the scenario where the market does nothing and remains flat.

Based on last week’s hysteria and this additional update from Ed Dowd, link here, markets doing nothing seems to be the least likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

So, Monday Never Happened …

August 9, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, FAZ, FAZ-24-01, Financial Sector, SPBIO, XBI, XLF 1 Comment

Losses For The Week, Erased

Monday’s losses were (mostly) recovered by the close on Friday.

One might be inclined to think we can all get back to ‘normal’.

Normal, like rigged elections, poking the bear (expecting nothing bad to happen), attempted assassinations, fake data, falsifying employment records, more ‘visitors’ flooding in, you know, normal.

However, for anyone paying attention, the charts say we’re at The Danger Point® (not advice, not a recommendation).

The potential for biotech XBI, has been covered over the past few days (here and here), but we also have another potential set-up; the finance sector, XLF.

We’ll cut to the chase, with the chart.

Finacial Sector, XLF, Daily

It’s important to note: It was four days of retrace (upward) into the test; each day had less volume than the day prior.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279