Category Archives: Gold Miners

Gold Miners … Opportunity Awaits

February 17, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Michael Bordenaro, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

On The Short Side

It’s been over four years, since this post.

The Junior Miners GDXJ are still below 56.44, the weekly close.

Recall, at the time of ‘what’s wrong’, it was absolute hyperinflation breakout mania (as the links included, attest).

Now, with mass layoffs and terminations, will the ‘stacking’ public, especially the ones in D.C. and Florida begin selling everything that’s not nailed down? What about the rest of us?

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

For long-time visitors to this site, the chart almost needs no explanation (almost).

Last Friday was decisive; outside-down, on increased volume.

We’re right at support (upper blue line). There could be some upside retrace in the coming week (not advice, not a recommendation).

If so, it’s what happens during that retrace that may give us clues as to the next direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Reversal Ready

February 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners Tags: , , , ,

Will The Breakout Hold?

As Ronald Reagan used to say:

‘Here we go again’.

The assessment of the mining sector has not changed in over four-years.

That is, it’s not a bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).

There are trading opportunities for sure but a sustained long-term bull market in the sector (GLD, is a different story), has not materialized.

So, here we are again.

Senior miners GDX, just broke above established resistance. Will it hold with GDX, moving higher?

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Except for the impulse launch higher in March and April of last year, upward movement has been choppy and overlapping.

This type of action is typically classified as ‘corrective’, moving against the main trend.

Since November, downside action has been ‘impulsive’, and upside action, ‘corrective’, shown as solid arrows, dashed arrows, respectively.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver/Gold Miners (crash) Channel

December 18, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Unfolding Quickly

The past two months have seen the miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, reverse down, hit a low, then upside test and now, reverse down again.

For years, the big picture analysis of this sector has been consistently bearish.

Sure, there we upside opportunities but the (more) dynamic moves were to the downside.

All of which, brings us to now.

Senior Miners GDX, Weekly

A sideways market is a bear market; that’s what we’ve had for over four years (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘terminating wedge’ taking a year to form has broken to the downside.

Then, an upward recovery (test), that reversed last week, continuing to the downside this week.

Looking to the left on the chart, we see the ‘repeating’ channel.

This notation shows a down-channel of this type has happened before. The market itself, has set its own precedent.

At this juncture, this week’s right -side channel line is declining at approximately -95%, annualized.

Decide for yourself if that type of trend constitutes a ‘crash’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Measured Moves

October 19, 2024 By in Charles Hugh Smith, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Gold Production, Speck-Effect, Statista, The Speck Tags: , , ,

Is This … ‘Inflation?‘

Is gold rising because of ‘inflation’ or just another market going through pattern-influenced moves?

Maybe there’s something else, something no-one talks about.

As far as known, the following insight (first discussed here) is exclusive:

Since 2020, world-wide gold output is declining; output for 2023, down over 9%, since 2019, link here.

Could this be a clue? Full article is here.

Well, enough of the truth.

Let’s get back to our fantasy world; the highly simplistic excuse that gold’s responding to ‘massive inflation’ and ‘money printing’.

Gold GLD, Monthly

One wedge, with its target already reached.

There’s another potential wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since futures are trading about $200/oz. higher than GLD (at 1/10 oz. pricing), the second measured move if reached, corresponds to about $3,300/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Patterns’ … ‘Patterns’

July 30, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Richie Naso

Notes From A Master

‘Trade the pattern’, is what floor trader Richie Naso tells his students.

Taking that wisdom and applying it to the weekly chart of Junior Miners, GDXJ, what would be the appropriate action?

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

At this point, GDXJ has posted what looks to be terminating wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is the long-awaited Fed announcement.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Metals … ‘Whacked!’

July 25, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV, UNG, UNG-24-11

Just Shocking

Especially shocking after having been subjected to non-stop delusion (now going on four months), and being ‘certain’ precious metals were headed higher.

Enough already.

Silver (SLV) is currently trading down a whopping -4.7%, in the pre-market session. Gold (GLD) is lower by about -1.2%.

Silver analysis has been consistent; SLV, price action itself, indicates a top and reversal or at best, sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation)

If one wants to review, starting back in April, we have:

Silver Top, Top Part II, Top Part III, Top Part IV, Top Part V, Top Part VI, Top Part VII, Top Part VII+, Stalls-Out

Now, this update essentially completes the process.

Silver, SLV, is about to open well below resistance as shown in the ‘Stalls-Out, update.

The Battle Against ‘Tik-Tok’ Brain

Fewer and fewer have a brain … like this (warning, profanity).

This guy sounds very much like the one in the ‘About‘ section. 🙂

Housekeeping: UNG, JDST

As can be inferred, a short trade via JDST, has already been opened: JDST-24-05.

Depending on today’s action, the stop listed is likely to be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas (UNG), on the other hand, is not behaving as expected.

The initial position UNG-24-11, was reduced by 80%, as a result of yesterday’s action. It’s likely that position will be closed out completely during this session (if not already).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Give Up The Bull

July 24, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05 1 Comment

Sucking Air … At The Top

For years, the strategic assessment of the miners (on this site) has been consistent. That is:

‘The precious metals mining sector (gold/silver) are not in a sustained bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).’

From that post nearly four years ago, the Juniors, GDXJ, are still over -22% below that price 🙂

The chart shows the Juniors GDXJ, have pushed above resistance in an apparent breakout that has failed.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

We’ve had the Up-Thrust, and now today, was the test.

If one is short this sector via JDST, a reasonable stop would be the session low of today @ JDST 30.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s Decision … Down

May 25, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Speck-Effect, The Speck

Now, It Gets Interesting

Is it about to become a dumpster fire?

As usual, we have the rabid gold and silver bulls, breathless; ‘This is it!’, ‘This is the big one!’, ‘Dollar collapse, imminent!’

All the while, nobody’s reporting the fact, that ever since ‘The Speck’ was introduced in 2019, and of course, Speck ‘protection‘, gold production has dropped to 2014 levels, and has not recovered (source, Statista).

Is it as simple as ‘supply and demand’? Is the ‘inflation’ narrative, just another ruse?

Even as gold and silver are rising (for now), the mining sector’s GDX, GDXJ, are far below their all-time highs.

As if to put icing on the cake, Newmont, appears to have reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont Mining NEM, Daily (inverted)

Similar to recent biotech analysis, we’re inverting the chart to show the potential.

Note: This ‘inversion’ technique is a psychological exercise covered in one of Dr. Elder’s books (here and here).

It’s a basic fundamental for un-biased analysis.

Back in the day, while publishing on SeekingAlpha (a whole story in itself), users of that site would complain about charts being ‘upside down’. 🙂

Moving on, we have the following:

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

Price action has recoiled off the support (resistance non-inverted) and is now at a point where it may attempt to retrace for a test.

MACD has become successively bullish; now has a crossover signal.

As shown in prior updates here and here, the support level’s in the vicinity of the 23.6%, retrace.

That indicates bullishness on the chart above or weakness on non-inverted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279