One has to wonder if the mainstream will ever acknowledge we’re in a deflation impulse.
The ‘inflation’ we’re seeing is (potentially) more associated with supply, product, and population destruction than any ‘money printing’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
As ‘Winston’ says at this link (time stamp (1:21:48),
‘People are allergic to the truth.’
The truth for the day, concerning the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, is that we’re testing the right-side trend line, the supply side.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle
Today’s price action is technically a ‘Key reversal’.
As such, the typical response is continuation to the upside during the coming days and or weeks.
Key reversals are not perfect and at times, will fail.
The important session for GDXJ, is tomorrow, Friday.
Continued upside most likely results in exit of short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘Real (market) opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent’; Gerald M. Loeb, the late, and former Vice Chairman, of E.F. Hutton
What a refreshing quote that is, back in the day when we had ‘Chairmen.’.
So, are the Miners the Juniors GDXJ, that opportunity?
From a technical standpoint, there’s the bearish divergence on MACD when looking at the weekly. Then, we have Fibonacci correlation on the weekly as well (shown below).
The daily has the short entry signal given yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fundamentals Collapse
Next, we have industrial demand in collapse, not to mention the world economies. If industrial demand is collapsing for photovoltaic components (link here), then silver demand must be collapsing.
The ‘Gap’
The analysis was working fine in the pre-market for shorting the GDXJ (not advice, not a recommendation), but then at the open, there was the gap.
Let’s address that but first get started with the weekly chart of GDXJ
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly
The technical details are clear: Bearish divergence on MACD as well as Fibonacci time correlation.
The original Fibonacci 89-weeks was covered in this post.
Yesterday, there was a gap-lower open and price action kept posting lower.
Will this gap be filled? That’s the question.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
As the chart implies, was yesterday a breakaway gap?
Price action’s right at support … or slightly below, which technically put us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.
The ‘Probabilities’
Given the bearish overall condition of this sector both on a technical and fundamental basis, a gap-fill is unlikely … but one has to be prepared.
As stated in the last update, the short position via leveraged inverse JDST was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).
To account for possible gap closure on the inverse JDST, a soft stop (trader discretion) is at 6.80 and below, with an absolute hard stop (no excuses exit) at 6.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s rare to get a ‘textbook’ signal … but every now and then, it does happen.
The last update on the Junior Miners, GDXJ, said a short position in the sector was re-established.
Today’s trading action may be straightforward; we either get stopped-out, or the market gives the signal to enter a full (sized) position (not advice, not a recommendation).
The bearish case for the miners has already been established many times over. Recent posts are here, here, here and here.
Since we’re looking at the sector from the short side, we’ll use the chart for the leveraged inverse fund JDST.
Junior Miners, Leveraged Inverse JDST, Daily
As said at the top, it’s (potentially) straightforward.
If JDST, price action exceeds 6.81, a full position will be entered with hard stop at this session’s low (determined at the close of the day).
If price action declines to 6.37, or lower, the existing (small) position is closed out.
Closer in, with a zoom of the price action.
As of this post (8:41 a.m., EST) JDST is trading in the pre-market slightly higher at, 6.65 which is + 0.08, or + 1.22%.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s time for an ‘adjustment’ to the trading channel identified in the prior update.
The Juniors GDXJ, are still in a downtrend.
Last Friday, they hit and retraced from the (adjusted) right side trading channel shown below.
The weekly MACD histogram (not shown) remains in a bearish divergence, indicating probabilities still favor the downside.
Price action will have to decisively break the downtrend to negate the bearish potential.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle
From a trading perspective, existing short positions were closed out this past Friday and then re-established (partially) towards the end of the session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Dollar Death … Not Yet
Just like the A.I. propaganda, it’s popular to get hysterical about ‘de-dollarization’.
Two perspectives that are not part of the crowd are here and here.
They give a more sober look at what is really happening on a world-wide, dollar basis.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With today’s outside-down (as of 2:43 p.m., EST), that makes it two key reversals for GDXJ, in the past five trading days.
While it looks like the whole herd is focused on the new mania, Artificial Intelligence, back at the ranch, the miners are painting an ominous picture.
Rendezvous With Destiny
The first two-minutes and ten seconds, at this link, are all that’s needed to get the idea of what’s likely to come.
The market recovered (fairly quickly) from 1987 … this time, may indeed be different.
The Elephant Sleeps
Ah, yes. The elephant no one talks about … or more accurately, are afraid to talk about.
Three links here, here and here, show us the elephant may be about to awake.
From the bottom, May 25th to now, is a Fibonacci 13-Days.
Is that important?
Here’s a prior analysis on Real Estate IYR, that shows how Fibonacci can identify the pivot point, trend and/or trading channel.
Now, back to the Juniors.
The mining sector appears to be under pressure. Each attempt to rally is being thwarted.
Compressed view of the channel, below.
The Fed announcement at 2:00 p.m., EST tomorrow, may or may not have any material effect. The sector may just continue lower …. slowly, without much fanfare (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Early in today’s session, the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily low and new weekly low. That helps the downside probabilities (not advice, not a recommendation).
As mentioned in the prior update, when price action penetrates existing lows, there’s a good chance of ‘spring’ action as a result. The market attempts to rally.
Sometimes it’s successful; other times, not.
The attempt to rally after posting new lows is what GDXJ is doing now (as of 2:15 p.m., EST).
Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Weekly Bar
In the weekly chart below, note how the close, then open, then close and then open again, are to each other.
That ‘narrowness’ signifies either resistance or support, in this case, resistance.
Where the sector closes for the day may an important clue if we’ll continue to the downside.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With less than an hour into the session, Junior Miners (GDXJ), have tapped upper resistance, pushed past by just 0.07-points, and are now eroding to the downside.
If the index continues lower, it has the classic near textbook look of ‘bump and run’.
It’s a price action response to stops placed just above resistance that get executed and then the market continues lower.
If that’s the case, it could get very serious to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)
Short positions via JDST, have been maintained with a hard stop at today’s JDST, low of 5.974 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
So, how’s any business going to operate profitably in an environment that’s systematically being disrupted?
Those that could come up with a plan (for their company or business) in such an environment, i.e., the ‘competent‘, are leaving in droves; letting the slackers, back-biters, corporate gossips, and the incompetent, finally have free rein.
This phenomenon likely applies to all major businesses. We already see the entrenchment.
Then, The Fed
Then, there’s the Fed. Surely, when they see how bad things are, they’ll lower rates; Right?
‘When the Fed realizes the economy’s in a recession, they’re going to lower rates‘.
That’s ‘normalcy bias’. We’re in a new construct: There’s no Fed ‘pivot’, rate lowering, or any ‘accommodation’ in sight.
On top of that, some have figured out, things aren’t quite right at the Fed; looks like different ‘forces’ are at work.
Go to time stamp 10:50 at this link (warning, contains profanity).
Then, The ‘Stackers’
So, we’ve gone from stacking toilet paper to stacking what’s thought to be precious metals.
First, it’s fake silver … and then, even the Perth Mint got into the act with ‘diluted’ gold bars.
As stated, years ago, during the Texas Freeze, when it really hits, the grid goes down, nothing’s working, it’s freezing outside, precious metals are nowhere on the list (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The VIX
As if all of the above was not giving us clues that something’s about to happen, there’s the VIX.
If you believe the talking heads and ‘finance’ YouTube sites that claim the debt deal will cause massive inflation, well then, let’s pose the following question.
If that was true, why are gold and silver not responding in a huge bull market with upward leaps (a la 1995, S&P) each day, then week and month?
Those close to the market always know something; their actions show up on the tape.
It could be we’ve already past the top in spending …. just by market pressures alone. It’s possible, all that extra allocated ‘pork’ may never get implemented (not advice, not a recommendation).
Lastly, The Miners
The miners GDX, GDXJ, have been in a bear market for years with all-time highs (GDXJ) during the first half of 2011.
Since then, the sector is down over 72%
It’s interesting, that this high stress, physically demanding industry with risk of danger ever present (here, here and here) reached a bear market peak in mid-2020, just as certain ‘items’ were being mandated.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
As the competent leave the general workforce, would the resulting lack of accountability make itself known first in professions where stupidity causes direct effect in reduced production and/or increased accidents?
The GDXJ is at an interesting juncture.
It’s currently under resistance (blue line) that has already been tested.
At the end of the session today, we’re a Fibonacci 8-Days from the low set on May 25th.
If the index is going to reverse lower from here, this is a likely place to start.
Another attempt at resistance would indicate more upside pressure than anticipated; any existing short positions would be closed (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 