Category Archives: NVDA

The MAERSK ‘Message’

August 5, 2023 By in GLD, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

‘He’s Dead, Jim’

What’s the MAERSK message?

The economy has collapsed.

He’s Dead, Jim

But wait! We’ve already written the script on what happens next:

Buy the dip, soft landing, no collapse until after the ‘elections’, stocks to soar, bull market just starting.

The Propaganda, Bot

A Bull Market Is Coming

Morgan Stanley thinks it’s a buying opportunity

Have Patience, Intel Investors!

Is this the crash-proof economy?

Not Time to Worry

The AI, Bot

Meanwhile, the SOXX and its loyal henchman, the AI bot, may have just ‘changed hands’.

Well, actually leveraged inverse SOXS, could be changing hands, shown below on the weekly chart.

Semiconductors Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Weekly

The massive volume in SOXS, over 369-million shares for the week represents (at the closing price) over $3.4-bln.

That may be the inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, here’s another example of ‘changing of hands’, link here. Since then, GLD has not topped that level.

Three-Hundred, Three Years (33)

Not since the South Sea Bubble of 1720, has there been an environment such as this.

Reference time stamp 11:10, in the link.

NVDA Earnings, Tick-Tock, Closer

One has to wonder, how NVDA, is going to ‘spin’ its upcoming earnings release and how the market will react.

Will it be, ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’, or just good ‘ol fashioned ‘sell’. Maybe it will be ‘buy, then sell’. 🙂

Who knows but it looks like the rest of the market’s not waiting around to find out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s Lonely At The Top

July 23, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The ‘AI’ Top

We’re about to find out if last Tuesday, was the top in AI, or just another interim top on the way higher.

No matter the Taiwan Semi slow-down, mainstream media’s not even considering we’re near (or past) a potential long-term reversal.

For this update, the SOXX is being used as proxy for the AI mania. The chief cook and bottle washer in this latest delusion is Nvidia (NVDA), which reached a high on Friday, July 14th.

Basic Indicators, Wyckoff & The Cat

Even without using Wyckoff analysis, basic indicators like MACD, both on daily and weekly are telling us the momentum has slowed; on the daily, it’s outright reversed to the downside.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal) that’s been supported by decreasing up-volume and increasing down-volume (shown on daily, below).

The cat’s out of the bag with Taiwan’s earnings release.

What we have are delays, more delays, coupled with revenue slowdowns (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, NVDA, where’s the money? Where’s that $11-Billion?

Slow, At-First?

If we’re past the top, it could be slow at first. Maybe imperceptible that a significant reversal is at hand.

If that’s the case, it might all change on August 23rd, when NVDA releases its own earnings.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

The daily chart shows we’re holding below resistance (blue line) after an apparent reversal.

The probabilities are accumulating that we’re in some kind of sustainable reversal.

Next week is likely to show us if that assessment is correct (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Stated previously, this site does not provide advice.

With that said, here’s how it looks on the company’s spreadsheet for shorting the SOXX using leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Next week’s action is likely to either force an exit of the position or allow for the trailing stop to be increased.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AI, ‘Train-Wreck’, Leaves Station

July 20, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Edward Dowd, LABD, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TSM

Did You See The ‘Elephant’ ?

It’s hidden in plain sight.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) releases lackluster results, revenue slowdown and new building construction delays.

TSM says the delays stem from the inability to find qualified workers.

Edward Dowd provides insight on the overall reduction of employees, in this interview (Time stamp 5:10).

Bull Trap Shut, Train Leaving Station

If there ever was a ‘gotcha’ moment, this is it.

Even while the mainstream continues to tout the hype, here, here and here, the market has reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The daily chart of SOXX, has the MACD bearish divergence confirmed. Price action is now (as of 3:05 p.m., EST) well below the breakout (blue line) resistance area.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

This site does not give advice, but it can be inferred by reading the reports what actions are being executed (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, short positions in the SOXX, via leveraged inverse SOXS, were entered early during yesterday’s session at SOXS 8.54 and SOXS 8.69.

As a side note, within minutes after today’s market open, the gain in the SOXS, fully erased the -7.9% loss via LABD, noted in yesterday’s update.

The Biotech ‘Bid’

For whatever reason, probably to be revealed months or years from now, biotech, the instigator of the ‘elephant’ is not selling off into a market collapse as expected.

Instead, the effects are being played out in low-margin industries like airlines and semiconductors.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ChatGPT, Tops-Out

July 8, 2023 By in AVGO, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM

And With That, It’s Over

The ChatGPT craze lasted just long enough to ramp Nvidia and the SOXX, to stratospheric levels.

In the coming weeks and months, we’re likely to see who ‘cashed-in’ (a la Elon Musk) and for how much.

When a bull market nears the end of its lifecycle, it tends to thin-out.

As the smaller cap stocks fall away and underperform, they’re sold and that capital’s funneled into the ‘last man standing’; in this case, Nvidia (NVDA).

Broadcom (AVGO) is there as well, but it’s a distant second at 1/3rd, the market cap of NVDA.

Short Positioning

We’re short this sector via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation) with entries shown in the prior update.

There was a third entry on 7/6 (not shown), but it’s minimal size when compared to the others.

Now, on to the charts

Semiconductor Leveraged Inverse Fund, SOXS

The following chart has the current hard-stop progression and soft-stop (trader discretion) locations.

Moving in closer with the zoom version.

The ‘AI’ bulls are in their brain stem (un-thinking), enabled in their fantasy by articles like this one and this one.

Of course, there’s more like here and here but we get the picture.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) Earnings Date

At the time of this update, TSM earnings date was an estimate, now confirmed as July 20th, before the open.

It’s about to get interesting.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Beware … The ‘Ides’ of July

July 2, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM 1 Comment

Well, July 13th, Actually

Thursday, July 13th, is when Tiawan Semi (TSM) is scheduled to release its earnings.

At this point, the date is still an estimate as this link says it could be as late as the 19th.

Either way, we’re going to find out (very soon) if there’s any correlating support for Nvidia’s ‘fantasy‘, $11-Billion.

The historic chart for NVDA (since 1999), shows an incredible rise that has apparently reached a climax top.

That climax is shown by the ‘off-the-chart’ reading of Force Index; never before seen in the 24-years, a near quarter century of trading history.

Nvidia, NVDA Daily Chart, Historical

Moving closer in on the daily, we see the magnitude of the thrust higher.

The gap has been labeled ‘exhaustion’.

That premise is supported by the fact of immense thrust (and volume) higher.

Exhaustion means just that; it can’t be sustained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Show Me The Money !’ … NVDA

July 1, 2023 By in GDXJ, JDST, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Maverick of Wall Street 3 Comments

Waiting, For August 23rd

From a strategic standpoint, this past Friday was the end of the Quarter and possibly the lowest risk spot to short the semis (not advice, not a recommendation).

‘Low risk’, does not mean, ‘no risk’.

We’ll look at the chart below for the SOXX, but first some housekeeping on the Junior Miners, GDXJ.

As stated in the last update, if there was more GDXJ, upside, shorts (via JDST) would be exited. That’s what happened with an overall gain of + 3.57%, on the series (beginning 6/16/23).

Now, on to the next circus … Artificial Intelligence; more specifically, NVDA and its cohort, the SOXX.

Where’s The Money?

With the quarter over, money managers have dutifully shown they’re like everyone else, ‘investing’ in AI.

That’s out of the way, so let’s move on to the specifics:

‘Hey NVDA, where’s the $11 Billion?’

Referring back to the excellent investigation done by The Maverick, in his view, the $11 Billion, is “Fantasy”.

The tricky part from a chart standpoint, is to identify when or if that fantasy is going to be exposed.

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly chart of SOXX, and inverted it as if going long the leveraged inverse SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Downside force dissipating with each major thrust.

Last week was an ‘inside week’; price action could not make a new weekly low.

Couple that with end of quarter, potential ‘window dressing’ and this past Friday, may have been the lowest risk point, for shorting via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Analysis … not Advice

This site cannot and will not give advice.

What it can do, is provide analysis and strategy so that you can make your own determination on the market.

With that said, the ‘heads-up’ for a top in the SOXX, was posted on June 17th, link here.

Since that time, the SOXX reversed down and has now come back to test.

Positioning

On Friday, the SOXX, was shorted by entering long the inverse fund SOXS, at 10.01.

Soft stop (trader discretion) for the position is the session low at 9.75, and hard stop (no excuses exit) at all-time low of 9.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The coming weeks may prove interesting. All eyes will be on that ‘$11-Billion’.

Show Me The Money

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘SOXX’ Top

June 17, 2023 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Maverick of Wall Street, TSM, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Was That, ‘THE’ Top ?

Beginning at time stamp 6:24, at this link, The Maverick goes through an investigation into NVDA, projections.

‘Something doesn’t add up here ….’

That report was three weeks ago. What’s happened, lately?

As of the close this past Friday, NVDA, the largest in the SOXX, was at $1.1-Trillion, market cap. A distant second, is Taiwan Semi (TSM) at $545.5-Bln.

Below, we have a confluence of events for the SOXX.

Semiconductor (ETF), SOXX, Weekly Candle

We’re at the top of a trading channel.

We’re in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ (reversal) position.

A lot of volume expended with less (net) upward progress than previous volume spike; ‘effort vs. reward’.

Getting down to the daily, we see a terminating wedge that’s coupled with reduced volume.

Semiconductor Index SOXX, Daily Candle

So, what does that mean?

The ‘probabilities’ for more upside are, or have been, reduced significantly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Mania’ or ‘Money’ … Your Choice

May 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, NVDA, Positions, The Maverick of Wall Street, TSLA, ZeroHedge

The Challenge Vs., The Money

The ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (AI) clown show’s in full swing with a ‘predicted‘ single quarter target of $11-Billion, from NVDA.

That’s not to be confused with the budget clown show just ended in Washinton D.C.

And where does that leave Tesla? They seem to be left out of the latest round of cult-like insanity.

Back in the day, Dr. Alexander Elder stated, professionals don’t look for the ‘challenge’ in the markets (trying to figure out the NVDA, top), they look for the ‘money’ … there’s a huge difference.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

As of 12:35 p.m., EST, from a technical perspective, even though we’re up for the day (so far), MACD momentum’s increasing to the downside (magenta arrow).

Nobody seems to be paying attention to gold and silver; all eyes are focused on the next shiny object.

Pulling out a bit farther on the weekly, there’s no question we’re in a channel.

The question is, are we (GDXJ) going to say in that channel or reverse from here?

The last update said we’d likely be testing the wedge break and that’s what’s happening.

A ‘test’ will take however long is needed. It’s either pass or fail. Pass in this case is resumption to the downside.

Technical conditions (MACD, wedge break) favor the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

In addition, we need to keep in mind there’s a new circus in town; the miners may be well on their way to more downside before anyone steps out of the big-top to notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dutch Masters

May 25, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, Neil McCoy-Ward, NVDA, SLV

More Than A Cigar

Dutch government puts the death knell on their economy … others will likely follow.

While the i-phone crowd is so easily distracted with AI and NVDA being their savior, back at the ranch, economies are being systematically destroyed.

Besides copper, one of the best indicators of robust economic activity is silver (SLV).

Since January, this site has highlighted the potential for a significant, sustained reversal in the precious metals; specifically, gold and silver.

Now, both the charts of GLD, and SLV, have weekly bearish MACD divergences (not shown); having just crossed the zero line with one more trading day to go.

Using a recent weekly bearish divergence as an example, natural gas (UNG), shows us the possibility; UNG is now down – 82%, (at the lows) in just 37-weeks.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

If gold and silver decline relentlessly from here, the sector most likely to take the biggest hit, is/are the ‘Juniors’, GDXJ.

Once the public figures out en masse, they’ve been fooled into ‘stacking’ instead of securing their food supply, precious metals are likely to accelerate to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that public has to ‘wake up’, first 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

NVDA & SOXX … Risk Reduced ?

February 23, 2023 By in NVDA, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff

At The Danger Point®, Where Risk Is Least

It does not get much better than this.

The weekly chart of semiconductor index SOXX (below), shows we’ve already had the Wyckoff up-thrust, the reversal.

All that was missing was the test. That is, until today.

The reportedly ‘good news‘ from Nvidia has given the SOXX the excuse to test its reversal.

Pre-market action has Nvidia itself is up +10.61%, and the SOXX currently up +2.42% (8:32 a.m., EST).

Conversely leveraged inverse fund SOXS is down – 7.15%. This is the opportunity (not advice not a recommendation).

Semiconductor Index SOXX, Weekly

With the SOXX open set for higher, risk on a short position (via 3X Leveraged Inverse SOXS) may be reduced as much as the market is going to allow.

Less risk is NOT, no risk.

The market is going through its natural tendencies, and this is an area where there could be a short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279