Category Archives: NVDA

How Nvidia Drops, -90%

November 8, 2025 By in 1899, Artificial Intelligence, Elliott Wave, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Terminating Wedge

It could be a slow grind, a series of ‘air-pockets’, or of course, not at all.

Using time-tested classical analysis, along with a dash of Elliott Wave, shows us we just had a terminating wedge ‘throw-over‘.

The video in the attached link, is brief and concise.

Throw-overs are (typically) major reversal indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of yesterday, Friday, that’s where we are.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

As seen with Nvidia, literally anything can happen. It could somehow recover, go sideways, or collapse.

If price action gets to the lower wedge, then breaks down, the ‘measured move’ for such a break, is -80%, to -90%, lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Crash in The Past

The crash of 1899, shows us that just because we got past October without fanfare, a crash can happen at any time.

A prior update, written three-years ago, describes that crash, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Call

November 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Thoughtful Money

‘So, It Begins’

“Incredibly Dangerous”; the tagline on the last update for semiconductors, A.I. and the SOXX, link here.

The chart for the SOXX, showed a measured move, to the 320-area.

It never made it.

After-hours on October 29th, the SOXX high was 313, exactly.

Conversely, the high for Nvidia, same day, was 212.19 which rounds to 212.2. It’s all just a ‘concidence’. 🙂

Old Spin & New Spin

Just like that, the press has thrown out the old propaganda and ushered in the new.

Now, it’s an ‘implosion’, link here and here.

As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.

That’s the ‘implosion’?

Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX’s Wedge Launch Higher

October 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17

Incredibly Dangerous

Is it going to play out exactly as Bert Dohmen said it would?

That is, grinding ‘window dressing’ action higher, toward the end of the year?

With last night’s upside and higher open, the SOXX has negated the reversal and has posted something else.

It’s in the chart below, a ‘terminating wedge’.

Semiconductors SOXX, 2-Day

The 2-Day chart is a better view of the pattern.

A wedge typically occurs near the end of the move whether it’s up or down.

The pattern above, implies that Nvidia has one more last gasp (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next earnings release is scheduled for November 19th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Nvidia Crater by 90%?

October 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CSCO, Ed Dowd, MRNA, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17, Thoughtful Money

Sell & Hold

During an interview with Thoughtful Money (link here), Ed Dowd says this about the A.I. bubble:

‘When it’s all said and done, Nvidia will be down by 80% – 90%’

This morning, the SOXX just printed a new daily high. Does that mean the reversal has been negated?

That depends on what happens next.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We have the all time high and up-thrust. Then, the trend break (yesterday), and now the test.

Obviously, there’s a lot of volatility.

If this is ‘the’ reversal of the A. I. mania, possibly the largest bubble in market history, then action like this, is ‘normal’. 🙂

Just like Cisco Networks was chief cook and bottle washer back in the day, this time, it’s Nvidia.

When it was all said and done, CSCO declined over -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I., By The ‘Numbers’

October 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-16 1 Comment

Fibonacci ‘Day 8’

Don’t look now, but today is Fibonacci ‘Day 8’, from the SOXX high, on October 6th.

Let’s also include the panic low last Friday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from that same top.

Of course, the Fibonacci count does not guarantee anything. It just lets us know so far, the SOXX is respecting the sequence.

Then we have the chart.

Last Friday was possibly the largest ever, downward thrust energy for the SOXX (data back to October 2019).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the thrust energy ‘bookends’.

Not covered in this update, is the condition of A.I., ‘leader’, Nvidia.

There’s so much going on with that one. 🙂

After an attempted breakout during the past twelve trading days, it’s now lower, back in the trading range (bearish).

It’s also established a nascent downtrend line (bearish).

Today’s open was above yesterday’s high. As of this post (11:53 a.m., EST), it looks ready to print a new daily low.

If that happens, it’s ‘outside down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boradcom Blow-Off?

September 4, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-10, SOXX 5 Comments

Watch for Tomorrow

As of this post (6:41 p.m., EST), Broadcom (AVGO) is trading up about 11.50-pts at 317.6, after its earnings release, link here.

That level is just above the all-time (regular session) high of 317.35, posted on August 13th.

In the SOXX, Broadcom is No.2, market cap, right behind Nvidia. So, the SOXX, is up as well in the after-hours.

It’s interesting to note that sister-stock, Nvidia has not rallied in sympathy.

In fact, it’s trading slightly lower after-hours.

As the tagline says, we’ll be watching closely tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 31, 2025 By in David Weis, Gold & Silver, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

All Quiet, on Labor Day Weekend

Gold, silver, and the S&P are essentially unchanged (as of 6:44 p.m., EST).

Although it appears to be a quiet weekend, we should at least take note of the terminating wedge pattern in the S&P.

The S&P is probably the most computer controlled, most manipulated, most algorithmed (if that’s a word) market in the world.

From a personal standpoint, I do not trade it and have not for over 15-years.

There are better ways to engage and not volunteer oneself to get whacked every day by a mass of computer algorithms (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’ll look at it anyway. 🙂

S&P 500, SPY, Daily (segment)

We’re oscillating into a wedge pattern. A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether it be up or down.

With the Nvidia earnings release out of the way, the tone of the overall market may have changed.

We’ll see if that’s true in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

VIX Compressed … Record Debt

August 28, 2025 By in NVDA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Waiting for The Break

The question (always) is:

‘How long can this last?’

From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.

Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re just a few minutes before the open.

We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.

Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia, Down Early Session

July 14, 2025 By in DAL, DAL-25-02, NVDA, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, WMT, WMT-25-04

Fibonacci Week 144, Holding … For Now

It’s early in the session; NVDA, has posted a new daily low, adding weight to potential reversal, at Week 144.

The SOXX, also printed a new daily low.

Repositioned short (again), with stop to be the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Other Markets

DAL-25-02, printed a new daily high (exit signal). Trade closed at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

WMT-25-04, stop, moved down to 95.54 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279