Category Archives: Positions

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce?

May 16, 2025 By in Health Care, Positions, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XLV, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

How Far, How Long?

Two major hits to UnitedHealth (UNH), in the past four days, here and here.

Let’s throw in this one as well, and make it an even three, link here, website link here. Is that why the healthcare costs are going up unexpectedly?

The Wall Street Journal, UnitedHealth, and ZeroHedge, may have presented conditions for an interim low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The press is usually last and typically presents (these days, anyway) nothing new.

The price action itself, told us something was wrong.

United Health UNH, Daily

Massive, historic volume for UNH, may indicate a temporary bottom and retrace to test Fibonacci levels.

Separately, the XLV short XLV-25-03 was closed with 6.93% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOM, XOM-25-01, XOP

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tops, at 311.88

May 14, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Positions

Very Close, To ‘310’

If the high holds, the difference between 310, and 311.88, is 0.61%. 🙂

The link above, actually says “310-area“, so either way, it’s close.

Of course, it’s what happens next that’s important.

One thing that can be said with some confidence, Carvana is at The Danger Point®.

This is the area where the risk is least, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There it is: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Around mid-session, as CVNA was continuing its breakout (prices rising), a short was opened: CVNA-25-02, with stop at the session high, 311.88 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Implosion

May 13, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Health Care, Livermore, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03

Breakaway Gap(s)

For Health Care Sector XLV, it’s one downside gap after another.

While ‘retail’ is off buying some kind of supposed ‘dip’, we have a market that’s fractured:

Gold and silver once up, now down, healthcare down, dollar up (wasn’t it supposed to collapse already?), airlines up, biotech down, basic materials up, auto dealers down, then up … and on it goes.

Housekeeping

Before we get started, Carvana short (CVNA-25-01) was closed when this morning’s action posted a new daily high.

CVNA, may be headed to that ‘310’ area we’ve been discussing for several weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Sector XLV, Daily

The next chart shows the stop progression and trendline for short-trade XLV-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, the trade is progressing and price action ‘makes sense’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s no telling how long the right-side trend will remain in-effect; so, the correct action as Jesse Livermore said years ago is, ‘Get right and sit tight’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Testing The Highs

May 12, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Positions, Up-Thrust

Watch The Volume

The last update said:

“A New (closing) High?”

That’s what happened with CVNA, closing out that session (5/8/25), at 285.53.

If there are no new daily highs from here, CVNA is either posting a (potential) double top or an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, the technical item to watch, is the volume and the prior session’s high, 284.23 (as a stop level).

If volume contracts from the previous session, it’s possible the highs have been tested and we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

At 2:30 p.m., EST, it’s still a long way to the close; we won’t know until then.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Follow The Money’ … Eli Lilly

May 10, 2025 By in Health Care, LLY, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-01, XLV-25-02, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

Exactly, What We’re Doing

At this juncture, the ‘money’, is heading out of Eli Lilly.

According to this link, LLY is the heaviest weighting in Health Care Sector, XLV.

Wyckoff analysis pointed to XLV, starting with this post. That short was stopped-out along with another (XLV-25-02), which was not discussed.

Thís update, let the site-visitor know (from the sidebar), there was a third attempt to short (XLV-25-03).

That trade is active and in-the-green (not advice, not a recommendation).

Confusion A-Plenty

Gold up, silver down, interest rates up, dollar down, then up, biotech down, drugs down, healthcare down, defense up; on it goes.

Then, what does ‘retail’ do? They ‘buy the dip‘

What ‘dip’ exactly, is that?

Let’s move on to LLY, and see what it’s telling us.

Eli Lilly LLY, Daily

Volume (churn) increased significantly from the earnings release on October 30th, 2024, onward.

There have been two ‘breakaway’ gaps (down) since the May 1st, earnings release.

It’s also possible there’s a trading channel.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Air Products, Reversal

May 9, 2025 By in APD, APD-25-01, Positions, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-03

Another One (short)

Air Products (APD) has set-up for downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart has a similar pattern to Health Care Sector (XLV), in this update.

In fact, it’s almost identical.

Air Products (APD), Daily

Price spiked May 1st, on the earnings release.

More, at this link.

A short position was opened today, around mid-session: APD-25-01, with a stop at or near the day’s high; APD 272.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, Call It Quits

May 2, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, SLV

For Now, At Least

All three index ETFs, GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, posting lower, with the silver miners down the most.

The lower action couples with lower silver (SLV) and nearly lower gold (GLD).

For Junior Miners GDXJ, as of this post (12:28 p.m., EST), it’s showing ‘outside down’.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

It’s important to note, yesterday’s update said there would (likely) be an attempt to move higher.

That’s what happened; then, price action reversed.

The chart shows how short position, JDST-25-10, is being managed. Lowering the stop (higher for JDST) in the direction of the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, work has already been done on potential, significant reversal for gold and on-going, languishing of silver: Links here, here, here, here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Down … China Sells

May 1, 2025 By in China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?

Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.

With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.

Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?

Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.

With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve penetrated support.

Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279