Category Archives: Positions

‘Free-Fall’, For Biotech … Closer

October 12, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Downside Pressure Builds

With this session’s price action continuing lower, getting back into the short trade (via LABD) was the correct move (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’re nearing the dangerous part.

Downside pressure continues to build.

As the chart shows, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is close to the point where there’s no more support until much lower levels.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily

The Blue arrows highlight short entries (via LABD).

Short No. 1 was subsequently stopped out yesterday, then re-established (the same day) at the next arrow, No. 2.

If and when price action gets to the ‘free-fall’ area, anything can happen.

We could bounce off the support level, hover at it, or slice straight through.

Positioning

It’s obvious this sector’s in trouble. The fundamentals continue to build.

Just a few days after this post we have two more to add to ‘The List’, here and here.

Yesterday’s post showed a not-so-good entry that at this point in today’s session, has been ‘healed’ by price action.

We’re well above that (LABD 21.69) entry and solidly in the green (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on the LABD-23-11, position is now being moved (tentatively) higher at today’s low of, LABD 22.01.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Back In The Saddle … Biotech

October 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

The ‘Perfection’ Mind-Trap

‘Once stopped out, the amateur will never re-enter the trade.’

That’s Dr. Alexander Elder, stating a typical psychological barrier for the new trader.

As if by design, as soon as the short trade LABD-23-10, was named, it was stopped out early this session.

About thirty minutes after the open, price action reversed its early session direction and re-confirmed the original bearish assessment of the sector.

Naming The Trade

From a personal standpoint, the psychological barrier of never getting back in a trade once stopped out, was addressed years ago.

It’s frustrating, but what’s worse, is watching one’s original premise turn into a ten-bagger and not being along for the ride.

With that said, the short in biotech has been re-established via LABD, at a far-from-perfect entry of 21.69, and a not-so good stop of 20.54 (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll name this one at the outset as LABD-23-11

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Update

October 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Behind The Scenes, Biotech Verifies Trend

Hardly a day goes by where we don’t get some kind of biotech ‘conspiracy’ or exposé like this, this, this, or this.

True or not, from a trading standpoint, we’re interested in reality.

So far, that reality, i.e., the price action, says that out of all the major sectors (except bonds, perhaps), biotech, and specifically, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is the weakest (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Trade With No Name

Since the existing short on biotech via LABD is solidly in the green (original entry @ 16.99), it’s going to be tracked on this site as LABD-23-10, indicating the tenth series (trade campaign) this year.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

The first chart shows the original entry (documented here and here) and the stop progression.

The second chart shows that we’re in a trading channel, confirmed with today’s higher (daily) high, with SPBIO, lower.

During this session, the stop has been tightened up to LABD 20.74 (Friday’s low).

With that, it could all be over soon, i.e., getting stopped out; or, it’s just a continuing series of well-disciplined progressions protecting open profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector, Buckles

September 28, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The List, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Bad, And More Bad News

It’s been a little nerve-wracking over the past two sessions being short biotech; was it an upward correction, or a full-blown reversal?

No one really knows, until it’s over.

Well, as of today’s new daily low in index SPBIO, it looks like what is now seen as a correction, may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Bad, And More Bad

On the fundamental side, The List keeps building with links like this, this and this.

However, keep in mind, it may be something as simple as rising interest rates that’s ultimately going to collapse biotech and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on and looking at the chart of SPBIO, there’s a trend confirmation and potential trading channel.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The left side line is the trend … the right-side line is what’s called the ‘reverse trendline’ and possibly defines the trading channel.

As of this post (12:30 p.m., EST) the SPBIO, is doing all it can to reverse higher, against what may be the over-riding (down) trend.

So far, the daily high of SPBIO 5764.73, remains intact.

Positioning

As a result of today’s new SPBIO low, the stop has been moved on the position in the inverse fund LABD, from LABD 18.22, to LABD 19.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘No Pivot’, Black Swan

September 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, Nissam Taleb, Positions, SPBIO, Van Metre 1 Comment

Then, There’s Biotech

Back in January, this post was contrary to the accepted (and still accepted) theory, there’ll be a Fed ‘pivot’ when the economy turns south.

‘Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.’

We went south a long time ago and not only is there no pivot, rates are most likely going higher still (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Process Of Iteration

Those accessing this site for any length of time, have seen my trading actions going through a process of iteration in real-time.

Those actions have effectively searched (and profited) from moves, but more importantly, are looking for the market that stands to decline the farthest and fastest.

At this juncture, that market could be biotech and specifically, the SPBIO, index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

Depending on if, when, and where the neckline is broken, we have an approximate location for a measured move.

Head & Shoulders patterns, while being high probability, can be subject to failure.

One of the most famous of these in recent memory, was the S&P Head and Shoulders of late 2002.

It was an easily recognizable pattern that failed … only later to find out, the market had been manipulated higher by an entity (buying futures contracts) that had ‘unlimited capital’.

Positioning

As this post detailed, the main position going short the index (via LABD) has already been opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

There have been other additions, but they are nowhere near the size of the original entry.

Hard Stop has been moved up from LABD 17.59 to LABD 18.22 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Highly Leveraged, LABD

There’s no guarantee, 3X Leveraged Inverse fund LABD, will be maintained throughout a potential collapse. Events can change, even while this post is being created.

That being said, what’s happening here is akin to ‘settling in’ on a trade, monitoring price action, trend lines, and support/resistance, to mentally prepare for what could be a sustained move.

So far, that approach is working.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News, Bad News … Biotech

September 19, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, Biotech, LABD, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The List, Wyckoff 4 Comments

When Price Action Heads South

One of the first things a professional (mentor) will teach aspiring traders, is:

‘Big money potential is on the downside’.

A famous example of this, was during the Panic of 1907,

Jesse Livermore raised capital by hawking his car for $5,000 (according to Wyckoff), then shorted the market.

Near the bottom on (or about) October 24th, 1907, he covered; netting over $1 million in profits.

That Was Then … Is That Now?

Well, conditions change, but human behavior does not.

Back in the day, it was newspapers, telephone, telegraph and ‘rumors’; today, we have Cramer 🙂

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the posts on this site are providing worthwhile insight.

Let’s move on to Biotech, SPBIO.

Since I am short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at that vehicle.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

After the entry on 9/14, at 16.99, price action has not looked back.

Note, the entry had a very tight stop as covered here.

The ‘risk’ is determined as the distance from entry to stop; in the case above, 16.99 – 16.66 = 0.33-pts.

For example, a ‘risk’ of $1,000 let’s say, equates to a position size just over 3,000 shares LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trending

The chart shows LABD, is currently trending higher at an aggressive rate.

There’s no guarantee this will continue to hold.

However, at the same time, there’s been no ‘news generating’ breakout, either.

So, at this point, it’s all under the radar.

Bad News Comes Out

When price action heads south, bad news comes out.

On a daily basis now, with articles like this and this.

Positioning

The initial position has already been discussed.

Other minor ones have been opened but the more important part, is Stop placement.

The initial Stop has been moved from LABD 16.66 to yesterday’s low of LABD 17.59 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Event Horizon’

September 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, CBDC, Daniela Cambone, Edward Dutton, Excess Deaths, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Set In Motion

Serious students of the markets discover quickly enough, price action has nothing to do with forecasts or fundamentals.

Once that mental hurdle is overcome, the market landscape takes on a whole new meaning.

Moving Parts, A-Plenty

At present, there’re a lot of moving parts but a few things are known: the on-going population collapse, the soon-to-be market and currency collapse (or severe de-basement), the possible ‘balkanization‘ of the U.S., just for starters.

Those wheels have already been set in motion.

Within that construct, are the market navigations (trading actions) presented on this site.

Biotech Has Spoken

At least for now, the bears are in control (not advice, not a recommendation).

The minor ‘spring’ set-up, materialized during Thursday’s session, just as this update said was likely.

It’s what happened next, that’s important.

On Friday, the set-up failed; showing the higher probability is for more downside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Price action is posting lower.

The potential trading channel has been re-drawn with the grey lines; indicating the possibility for more aggressive downside action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As can be inferred with these updates, I’ve already positioned short this sector via leveraged inverse fund LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is Thursday’s high (SPBIO, 6,135.81) which corresponds to LABD 16.66 (interesting, that).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX (Upside) Breakout … Fails

September 11, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Now, It Gets Interesting

Not only has the upside at this morning’s open failed (as of 11:20 a.m., EST), we also have an ‘outside down’ (key reversal) that so far has exceeded the lows of the prior two sessions and the prior week’s low.

When A Move Fails

Failed moves get the attention of the street.

Whomever is on the other side of the trade, in this case the bulls, are potentially exhausted.

It’s still very early in the session and anything can happen.

However, the most likely outcome at this point is continued downside that may accelerate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

I have kept the trendline shown in the prior update intact.

What we may be looking at here, is an attempted trend breakout that has at this point, failed.

I have switched to an OHLC bar chart (instead of Candle) as the detail of the failed breakout is more clear.

The zoom area shows how price action quickly ‘gets itself back into line’ and rejoins the downtrend.

We’re now in a dangerous spot for both sides as price action is currently in Wyckoff spring position, having penetrated prior lows.

Probabilities point to more downside; let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Has AI, Started To Crack?

September 9, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, Positions, SOXS, SOXX

Quiet, At The Beginning

For those who may be new to the reversal, the SOXX, top was posted here; the pivot to the current downside identified here.

Probabilities point to more downside, but if AI, and specifically, the SOXX, manages to move higher from this point, the above two links at the minimum, highlighted tradeable pivot points (not advice, not a recommendation).

Go Big or Go Home

Way back, from Jesse Livermore’s book Reminiscences, he talks about establishing large (low risk) positions early, before a move has really had time to accelerate.

As price action gets farther away from the entry, risk increases (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

This site seeks to emulate the strategies and techniques used by three masters, highlighted in the About section.

With that in mind, the chart shows how one trader has positioned in the leveraged inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s the ninth trading series for SOXS, this year, hence the identifier.

The first number column is the entry price, the second, the initial stop and then trailing stop.

Last column is the current close price.

Notes from the previous post on the trading channel remain unchanged. The SOXX is trending down, until it decides otherwise.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trending … Under The Radar

September 8, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, SOXS, SOXX 2 Comments

‘Distribution’, On The Way Down

How long before talk of AI disappears completely from the media?

How long before everyone figures out there’s a new hand being dealt and no ‘dip’, in AI?

It’s possible we could be there now, but it’s not likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Media Minions

If you happen to sense something’s wrong and actually take your profits, you’re treated with disdain, link here.

Wow, just wow.

Next up, if you can actually think and suspect something’s wrong with the forecasts, then you’re a ‘Conspiracy Theorist’.

Another wow.

Just look at the picture in the link … notice anything wrong?

So, let’s leave the big-top clown-show and see what price action’s telling us.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

It’s early in the session (11:25 a.m., EST); this is how it looks.

As said, it’s early and anything can happen.

The market could suddenly decide to fill the gap, or that gap could be a ‘breakaway gap’, signaling probability for a persistent down move.

Positioning

Gap fill or not, I remain short this sector via SOXS, with Hard Stop,moved to SOXS 9.37 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279