Category Archives: SOXX

Bubble Trouble

June 2, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX 5 Comments

Is This, The Extreme?

Previous top and reversal analysis of the SOXX, and its chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia, have been premature.

Analysis, correct for a while, only to be negated by more upward action.

So, we have to ask ourselves;

‘Do we feel lucky?’ 🙂

Actually, luck does not have much to do with it; let’s go to the action itself.

First, the long-term view of largest cap, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Quarterly

We can clearly see Prechter’s ‘Rule of alternation’ at work.

Complex, simple, complex and so on.

Note the massive upward spike in Thrust Energy (middle panel).

We’re less than a month away from completing the 2nd Quarter. It looks like thrust energy is, or will be, diverging (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on to the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Weekly

Recently, the week of April 19th, there was a significant downard thrust.

A similar thrust (blue arrows) resulted in a decline lasting ten months, dropping approximately -45.35%.

However, in the case above, the reversal has yet to materialize … or has it?

Last week posted outside-down, but did not close outside-down.

It leaves the probability open for upward action.

However, from a risk standpoint, it’s The Danger Point®.

If we use last week’s high, SOXX 243.63, as a hard stop, the cost of being wrong positioned short, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VI

June 1, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX

Top Or Channel?

The market itself, tells us where to look.

The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.

The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.

In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.

All of which brings us to the chart below.

Silver SLV, Monthly

From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.

Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.

The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?

Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?

When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.

The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Unravels

May 31, 2024 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX, Wyckoff

Is This The ‘Big One?’

Is today, the day?

We have (likely) the largest market mania in human history.

It could be starting its collapse as we speak (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll go straight to the SOXX.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

It’s straightforward

A Wyckoff up-thrust accompanied by a divergence in momentum indicator, MACD.

We’re literally inches away from an outside down week; SOXX, currently trading (as of 11:02 a.m., EST) at 230.12 and last week’s low at 228.85

Update: 11:58 a.m., EST.

SOXX, posts ‘outside down’ (key reversal), penetrating last week’s low of 228.85

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Action … Tight & Tighter

May 13, 2024 By in Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX


Was Today, The ‘Tightest’?

The last update on the SOXX (using inverse SOXS), said we closed out the day, last Friday, with five-hourly bars of tight price action.

Tight action implies a directional, breakout move of some sort; expecting downward, for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

It didn’t happen.

What we got instead, shown below, is price action that’s even tighter.

Since the last update used the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund SOXS, we’ll continue with that, but move to a 30-minute timeframe.

Semiconductors 3X Leveraged Inverse SOXS, 30-minute

The boxes outline price action that has become increasingly more and more constricted.

Obviously, something’s about to happen … but what?

Data Release

Tomorrow’s the release of PPI data along with a couple of Fed speeches.

Not that the ‘data’ really matters. Anyone with two basis points rubbing together should already know about accuracy of ‘the data’.

Even so, it can be used as an excuse for market manipulation.

So, let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX From The ‘Short Side’

May 10, 2024 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

A Look At Leveraged Inverse: SOXS

Just a reminder, the Inverse Fund trades contacts that rise in value if the tracking fund (in this case, the SOXX) declines in value.

Add to that some 3-X leverage and it’s a potential rocket in either direction.

The last update on the SOXX, link here, said we’re at The Danger Point® and since then, nothing has changed.

At the open today, SOXX posted an attempt to launch higher that was quickly reversed. Price action then spent the rest of the day in a narrow trading range.

So, what happens now?

For a look at the probabilities, we’re going to use the 3X leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Semiconductors 3X Leveraged Inverse SOXS

What we’re highlighting here on the hourly, is net distance traveled on the down move (upward in SOXX), getting shorter with each successive thrust.

Add to that, ‘tight’ hourly bars for five-hours of the trading session.

Tight action precedes (typically) some type of directional move or breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, with tight action in the upper half of the day’s trading range, one would expect a directional, breakout move to the upside (downside for SOXX).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … About To Pivot?

May 9, 2024 By in David Weis, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Downside Energy & Acceleration

It’s been three weeks since the SOXX, competed nearly an 18% plunge that started back on March 8th.

Price has action rebounded since then.

However, in the past several days, it has completed an upside test and now (as of 12:05 p.m., EST) is posting a potential reversal to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

The 3-Day chart shows us the prior move had the second largest downward thrust energy, ever, for the index.

Semiconductors SOXX, 3-Day

The last downthrust energy, the largest ever, kicked off a decline lasting from January of 2022, to October the same year.

Moving closer-in on the details we have the following:

Do we have a ‘mini’ Up-Thrust, in the expanded view?

Whether the SOXX, is about to reverse down or not, one thing looks clear, it’s at The Danger Point®

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Trap Set?

March 13, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IWM, Life Insurance, MET, NVDA, SOXX, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 4 Comments

Is The Fear Exhausted?

It’s a confusing time.

Semiconductors with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, seem to be reversing. Other sectors like biotech and mid-caps were never part of the mania.

Add to that, biotech and life insurance may be correlated (more on that, in another update).

As the market looks to pivot lower, bonds are also pivoting lower or at least under pressure.

In response, one can say there’s been sort of a panic into the mining sector GDX, GDXJ; like it’s somehow more safe there.

Let’s see if the miners really are the safe-space.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart shows (as of 12:35 p.m., EST), we’re pushing into known resistance (blue line) at the 37.00, area.

There’s also a Fibonacci time frame. Today is ‘Day 55’, from the December 22nd high.

Not only are we at Day 55 from the 12/22/23 high, but we’re also at Day 21, from the February 13th, lows.

Essentially, GDXJ is about to post a Wyckoff up-thrust condition, the area for potential downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

At The Edge … Biotech

March 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, LABD, SOXX, SPBIO, The Maverick of Wall Street, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

Amidst The Confusion, The Biotech Set-Up

Let’s remind ourselves with a paraphrased quote, long ago:

‘Until you can completely ignore the financial press and focus strictly on price action, you will never be successful in the markets.’

Richard D. Wyckoff, circa 1934

New Highs … Except

It’s new highs for the AI insanity; all the while, CEOs and other insiders are cashing out, as reported by The Maverick, and J. Bravo.

Notably absent from this drunken cyber-bash are biotech IBB, and XBI.

Fibonacci Retrace Compete?

Both indexes (ETFs) posted a Fibonacci retrace (from 2021 highs), doing it simultaneously; IBB at 50% and XBI at 38%.

Potential reversal of XBI, link here.

We have below, even more (technical) weight for XBI pivot from up-to-down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

Attempted breakout above resistance (magenta line) puts XBI, at The Danger Point®

Price action’s hovering above resistance while at the same time posting climactic volume.

Note that it’s just touching the underside of the 38.2% retrace level (blue line).

The last time we had a similar volume climax was the pivot point from down-to-up, in early May of 2022.

Does that mean the current volume spike signals a (potential) reversal from up-to-down?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Next Week

February 24, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Was That, The Top?

Monday’s open could be important for the mania stricken Nvidia (NVDA).

This site’s not the only one figuring on a top if not the top.

Here’s a link showing typical behavior of previous mania bubbles; all-the-same.

Below, are specific price action behaviors pointing to either a pause with congestion, or outright ‘bubble-pop’ reversal.

We’ll find out soon enough.

Nvidia NVDA, 3-Day Bar Chart

We’re using a three-day chart, showing the magnitude of current thrust energy (mid-panel) and similar occurrence back in late May of ’23.

A lot of things are going on … all at once.

Back as far as 2006, the magnitude of the (two) upward thrust spikes has never happened before.

Is this a last gasp?

Price action reached and pulled-back from the (magenta arrow) channel high. That upward move was launched from an earnings release.

Now, we have two ‘bookends’ of upward thrust but here’s the key; markets tend to alternate.

That means: ‘What happened last time is not likely to happen this time’; Prechter’s rule of alternation.

The SOXX index itself plays a role as it had an ‘outside-down’ print on Friday; otherwise known as ‘key reversal’ or ‘bearish engulfing candle.’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279