We’re using the leveraged inverse fund LABD, for our analysis (SPBIO down, LABD up).
Yesterday, closed with the 4-Hour chart above.
Annotating with Force Index numbers; each early session 4-Hour bar for the past two days, has been posted on decreasing downward thrust (last two magenta down-arrows).
In addition, the first four hours of the last session penetrated support and then retraced in the next four hours (last bar).
That sets up a spring condition as shown:
Taking Forever?
If this really is the crest of a major (overall market) reversal, we need to remind ourselves, it’s a massive juggernaut.
Said many times, we (my firm) are looking and working on the big move (not advice, not a recommendation).
By definition, it’s not a popular method.
Nothing seems to be happening … until it does. Then, it’s too late to position.
Pre-Market:
With about 17-minutes to go before the open, LABD is trading unchanged.
Obviously, the first four hours of trade will be important.
The market (LABD) could continue to grind lower … or we may be at the end of the counter-trend move; ready to reverse upward for LABD and down for SPBIO.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The best way to hide something, is to put it out there for all to see:
In plain sight
However, for the oligarch’s target audience, the proletariat, they can’t actually ‘see’. It’s all by design.
They’re hypnotized, programmed, demoralized; just doing and not thinking.
Which home improvement center has the tag line played over and over through their speaker system (paraphrasing) ‘doers getting things done’.
If you think about it, ‘Doers’ don’t think. They just ‘do’. A perfectly controllable, mindless herd.
Going one step further, is to have these proles so mentally damaged, they actually think, there’re thinking.
Which brings us to our chief cook and bottle washer for the day: Southwest Airlines
Southwest Cancels Flights:
The official company line is cancellations were due to weather which is obviously not true.
This report from KHOU in Houston, says the cancellations were about something else. It’s in the title but that’s not what the news story’s really about.
Go ahead and watch. Stop the video after thirty seconds and tell me (figuratively) what’s the real intent.
If you can ‘see’, it’ll be obvious.
Actually, this was an easy one.
This news story has nothing to do with cancellations and everything to do with ‘compliance.’
Present the image over and over of compliance (masks) and then it takes on a life of its own.
For example, we can see that type of compliance in this Facebook post (at left) put out in my area just yesterday.
It’s not hard to surmise (and tragically, so) there’s probably not going to be a ‘Second Year’ photo shoot.
This Is Now:
I have family members that essentially fall into two camps:
The first, plugs their ears and chant “la, la, la, it’s not happening”.
The other camp mumbles over and over (for years now) “it shouldn’t be this way”.
Neither camp has, is, or will do anything to get ready.
Icing on the cake is the typical response of, ‘Your information’s not from a reputable source’.
What, like Fox News?
You may, and probably do have similar stories.
In line with it’s not happening, or the government should fix it so it won’t be this way, we have Dan from I Allegedly.
He just posted another update. At time stamp 20:20, people are still expecting a fourth stimulus check.
That’s something else that’s not happening.
Which all brings us to what really is happening … our second topic of the day: Biotech
Biotech SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
It’s been an up day for biotech (down for LABD) thus far but that’s not the real story.
The chart below is from earlier in the session. We’re looking at the leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the hourly basis:
Next, we have our ‘usual suspects’ mark-up showing us the potential opportunity:
From a personal standpoint, being short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) has been tiring.
Especially on days like today.
You can watch your main account fluctuate (in the red) by what used to be, in the corporate world, two to four week’s pay; all happening in a single hour.
However, even as this post is being created, we now have LABD posting the following:
Upside action off the spring looks strong. However, there could still be a downward test.
SPBIO, Last Chance?:
Intuitively, this could be it for biotech (SPBIO) to the upside.
The reason for that conclusion is:
If the spring set up holds with sustained upward action in LABD, it sets up a potential measured move condition (not shown); targeting LABD to much higher levels.
In that case, SPBIO would move lower … much lower and possibly well past any nearby major support.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Biotech (SPBIO) is still well off the highs and in bear market (below 20%) territory.
We’re going to take the last section of the chart, highlighted below and expand it out to hourly.
Hourly detail is below:
There was a minor penetration of support yesterday, the 6th; that has resulted in a spring condition upward move.
Now, we’re at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the down-move that started on September 2nd.
Spring-To-Up-Thrust ?
Looking at the hourly, it’s clear just a little farther up and we’ll penetrate minor resistance (which is also the 23.6%, retrace). Doing so, would put price action in the all too familiar and well documented ‘spring to up-thrust’ condition.
At mid-session, with SPBIO retreating (slightly) from the highs, it may not make it to up-thrust, today.
However, one still needs to be aware of the possibility.
Positioning:
As my firm is positioned short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation), being in the red for the day is never fun.
However, at this juncture, the charts themselves say there’s nothing untoward about maintaining short.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You would think with all the announcements about corporations (forcing) their employees to become ‘fully protected’, the biotech sector would be launching higher.
After all, that sector’s about to get a massive increase in revenue as the major players continue on with their ‘protection’ plan.
Looks like 1,400 non-compliant, undesirables have been dealt with.
Let’s do some math.
If that was 2% of the workforce, that means just for this employer alone, approximately 68,600 (subtracting 1,400 from 70,000) have now received a ‘bonus’ from the company.
If the scientific (real science) estimates are correct, the ‘elephant‘ will begin to kick in within six months and be fully effective (terminal) within five years.
This example is not the only one … Southwest Airlines just announced a similar push; fully ‘protected’ by the end of the year.
With all this good news, one would expect the biotech sector (SPBIO) to be launching higher in an unstoppable rally.
Um, no.
Let’s take a look at what’s really going on with the price action.
SPBIO (and 3X inverse, LABD):
We’re going to use the 3X inverse SPBIO fund LABD, for our analysis.
We’re about 30-minutes past the open and SPBIO, is heading lower with inverse LABD, moving higher:
We’re going to digress just a bit; updating on the ‘alternating’ action discussed in this update.
Price action above, is choppy and overlapping. That’s different from what we see now:
With all that being said, it’s possible LABD, has just confirmed the right side of a trend-line:
As a reminder, biotech (SPBIO) is the only major index that just finished three down quarters in a row.
If current action continues … it’s on track to make it four.
Wyckoff said it a century ago:
‘Somebody always knows something. That something, is reflected in the tape (price action)’.
The lies and reality don’t match. Biotech is losing steam … possibly in anticipation of an ‘event’ of some kind.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.
Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.
So, what does this mean?
Slow At First. Then, All At Once:
The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.
The second answer is more complicated.
As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.
We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.
As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.
The resulting shortages are intentional.
The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.
It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.
More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.
Of course, some of them are.
However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.
I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.
Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.
I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.
The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.
This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.
Instantaneous Shift:
That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.
Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.
All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).
SPBIO Analysis:
Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.
The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:
The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.
The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.
It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We have four more trading days until the end of the Third Quarter. It’s unlikely that biotech (SPBIO) is going to make a new quarterly high.
This morning’s early action has LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) essentially unchanged to slightly lower; higher for SPBIO.
The weekly chart of SPBIO, above, has been inverted to mimic the inverse fund LABD … but without the tracking (bias) errors.
The “tight” area of action has been expanded in the next chart:
We can see the wide, high volume bar from the week of 8/27, is being tested by the subsequent weeks and their upward action.
This is normal market behavior that has probably been repeating itself since the buttonwood tree.
Alternating Action:
The difference this time around, we’ve already had the ‘low to upward thrust’ (for LABD) that was negated last week with a test.
That test has now reversed as seen on the 4-Hour chart (inverted SPBIO) below:
Both downward thrusts (September 17th, and 23rd) finished the day at or near their session lows.
The ‘rule of alternation’, from Prechter’s Elliott Wave discussions, essentially says that; what happened last time, will not happen this time.
That leaves two scenarios for SPBIO and LABD.
Scenario, No. 1
SPBIO reverses from here and goes on to make new daily, weekly highs.
Scenario, No. 2
SPBIO continues its downward reversal into the next leg lower; potentially to the Fibonacci projection target (not shown) of 161.8%.
That would put SPBIO, at or near the 3,873 level … a decline of nearly 62%, from last Friday’s close.
Force Index:
Since the inverse fund LABD is heavily traded (2mil – 3mil, shares per day), we can use it as a good indicator of professional trader commitment
I say ‘professional’ because, as incredible as it may seem, the majority of market participants (the amateurs) do not understand or can’t grasp the concept, the big money is made on the downside.
The trading books that regale stories of massive gains, were typically trades to the downside … probably the most famous of which, was Livermore’s well documented short position during The Panic of 1907.
I’ve even talked to a former broker (for a firm that has 15,000 locations nationwide) who asked me when I was discussing the markets (and I quote): “What’s an inverse fund?”
I kid you not.
As touched on yesterday with Random Notes, the level of complacency, stupidity and ignorance has reached levels that are not going to be repeated in our lifetimes.
Market participants are either going to be wiped-out … or they’re going to get very smart, very fast.
I’m personally going with the ‘wiped-out’ scenario as it’s extremely difficult to come up to speed on a complicated topic (reading price action) while your account is being decimated.
Which brings us to the Force-Index chart of LABD:
This chart’s a little different than the rest.
The Force Index section (the lower panel) has been expanded to show the nuances of thrust action.
Even all the way back to the major thrust lower on August 23rd, we can see, downward thrust energy has been dissipating.
Recently, as shown with the blue arrow, downward thrust has evaporated altogether.
Summary:
It appears from the 4-Hour chart of LABD, we’re potentially at a major point of inflection (not advice, not a recommendation).
The rest of the indices (except the miners) are at or near their all time highs … with valuations (P/E ratios) stretched to the highest on record; going all the way back to 1962, if memory serves.
SPBIO is the only major index that’s about to post three down quarters in a row.
Obviously we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) with the understanding that anything can happen.
This market (SPBIO) along with the others could reverse and move to new highs.
However, at this juncture, it looks like the air’s coming out of biotech … slowly, at first.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The signs continue to stack up (pun intended) that accumulating inedible metals, non usable as a work tool or a medicine is a dead end; for now.
If you already have gold and silver … great.
At this point, we can see more and more, the ‘accumulation’ needs to be storable grains, legumes, proteins, water purification and medicines along with ‘protection. Go to time stamp 4:24.
No. 2
La Palma Eruption Continues: Increases Intensity
The best ‘boots on the ground’ reporting is coming from ‘Bushcraft Bear’ at this link.
You know it’s good as his videos are being stolen and re-packaged by those who can’t think or do for themselves.
Everybody’s so self-important and has something to say, right?
If you want to watch pure media sensationalism (with no actual data … other than lava temperatures), here is just one link among many.
Scuttlebutt (unverified) on the alternate sites; corporate drug manufactures do not have liability indemnity if they engage in pre-meditated homicide.
No. 8
Quigley, Down Under
Does Quigley (Tom Selleck) have ear-plugs at time stamp 2:57???
No. 9
Taboo Scaboo … Goes To The Farm
For those following these updates, we’ve (at the residence) been raising a Leghorn Rooster (“Scaboo”) from a small chick … which is ‘against the rules’.
After six months, it wound up where he was spending more time, sometimes all day in the house. He was not able to go outside because he would start crowing.
Understandable as he was ‘outside’, a happy camper and surrounded by four hens.
Moving him to the farm of some friends is the best thing for him.
Apologies for the camera being in ‘portrait’ mode. I did not do the filming.
Here he is at his new home strutting around.
Look at the size of that comb!
Upon arrival, he immediately got into a scuffle with the ‘lead hen’ … that thinks she’s a rooster.
There was some blood and so they were separated for now.
No worries though.
He’s much larger than the rest and does not avoid conflict … i.e., he’s not a coward.
I suspect he’ll have it all straightened out in short order.
We have ‘visitation’ rights. 🙂
Meanwhile, the hens back at home have started laying.
Leghorns are very productive and will typically produce one egg a day.
At full production, that equates to 28 eggs a week.
In addition, we have about one year’s worth (and planning to get more) of chicken feed stockpiled.
Couple that with a three-tier, raised-bed garden (each bed is 192 sq.-ft., for a total of 576 sq.-ft.) that’s going year-round.
The other side of the yard has ‘mini-beds’ that are used for melons in the summertime.
The main beds are not used as the melons overtake the entire garden … being on the other side of the yard, allows them to spread out as much as needed.
All of our drinking water (including the hen’s) is filtered through a Berkey.
Thus far, this ‘homestead’ has made a serious dent it its reliance on the grocery store.
It’s taken eleven years to get to this point.
We’re in a long haul game (by the elites) that will likely last through the lifetime of anyone reading these posts.
No. 10
The ‘Unprepared’
As a corollary to No. 9, we have the ‘unprepared’.
I think in one of Dan’s recent posts, he even talked about those who are unprepared, attempting to make it look “cool” to not take action.
After dealing with the stupid, the lazy, the back-biters, the heel biters, gossips and the just plain idiots in the corporate world (24-years), stupidity looks like it may have finally run its course.
In a hopefully very rare comment (about myself), I’ll remind those reading, in the corporate career, I was one of the top Avionics System Integrators in the world; performing work as “Lead Engineer” for System Integration on Global Express.
So, I’m not making it up when recalling how I had to deal with the “tiny minds” as I came to know them.
I later went on to build an entire engineering department for an autopilot company that may have committed fraud.
They promised the customer a product they knew they could not deliver. They had already squandered the $200,000 initial payment (out of a multi-million dollar contract) for work that had not been done.
I was hired to build the department (hide that effort from the customer) while making it look like the company knew what it was doing.
I decided to leave that company and engineering entirely after I had chastised an engineer reporting to me, by giving him a poor review.
He then took that review to the HR department where the woman there decided on her own, she knew more about autopilots, system integration and aircraft flight test than I did.
The review was re-written by her; being more favorable to the engineer reporting to me.
I do not recall exactly if I signed the updated copy. If memory serves, I refused.
The rest it is history.
I left the engineering field entirely in early 2009.
The same level of effort and commitment I had in the corporate world, is now being poured into market analysis and other research; like backup power methods, seed-saving, managing livestock and homesteading.
It’s a long haul game as well.
This site’s not looking for the day-trade or even a swing trade. We’re looking for the big move … and spending money (account balance) to get it.
Everybody has their own trading style and time-frame. We’re openly disclosing that ours is focused on the long-haul (not advice, not a recommendation).
The recent reversal in Biotech, SPBIO (inverse LABD) may be just a blip … or the start of something much bigger. We’ll see.
Enough said.
Back to the unprepared.
Even if you’re prepared, it does not mean that you’ll avoid being taken down as well.
Idiots will indeed take some with them to the abyss just from being in proximity; or you (or me) being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
At least if you’re prepared, you might see it coming (for them) and sidestep so you’re not swept up in their self-inflicted carnage.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday’s action had LABD pushing past stop levels; resulting in one position being closed out … then re-opened late in the session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Price action as seen in the daily chart (above), penetrated the previous low from September 17th, and closed below that low (for LABD).
The open had an immediate rebound higher (SPBIO, lower).
LABD’s in position to move higher to a new daily high. Doing so, would help confirm a reversal’s underway.
Don’t Trust The Rebound
Here’s a link to an update that may be of interest. The first few minutes do an excellent job of eviscerating the so-called financial press.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’ve got the daily chart of LABD, leveraged inverse fund Biotech, SPBIO, above.
Next, we highlight the tight price action and note the failed push lower:
Scroll up and down between the two charts and you can see, this is an area where the market has firmed-up.
Tight action is usually (not always) a pre-cursor of an upcoming move. One side is taking control; about to take the market their direction.
Note: The last two days (including today) show a pivot of sorts … still very young.
Positioning:
The tight stop on the DRV position was hit early in the session. Exit was performed at DRV 4.4336 (not advice, not a recommendation).
That freed-up capital was then allocated to a position in LABD (again, not advice, not a recommendation).
The stop is tight at LABD 18.79.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Using the prior day’s analysis that a short entry was low risk, the first attempt was long LABD 17.78, tight stop at the prior day’s low of 17.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).
As the chart shows, it did not take long to get stopped out and have LABD post a daily low of 17.37.
Immediately after the exit (within seconds), price action began to recover. The behaviour of this action gave the go-ahead to make a second entry.
After the second entry, price never came back. The stop on the position was changed to be the low of the day: 17.37 (not advice, not a recommendation)
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 