Carvana Has No P/E

No P/E

No Grade-Point

Another Animal House ?

Delta

‘All courses, … incomplete

If your biggest claim to fame is that you ‘invented’ a vending machine … you’ve got real problems.

No haggle pricing, thin margins and high volume, have already been pioneered by CarMax.

So, what’s left … you get to select your car with a token and vending machine?

Based on available data, in the past three years, CVNA had one profitable quarter. Those results were released in August, this year.

About a week after that, CVNA breaks its uptrend, goes sideways and now, is heading lower.

CVNA Trend Break

The daily chart has the arrow showing the only profitable quarter in three years.

On the other side of business, we have CarMax … where every quarter for the past ten-years has been profitable.

Double The Bubble

During the melt-down in 2007 – 2008, new cars on retail lots had window stickers that said ‘$10,000 Off List Price’.

We’re probably double the bubble of then. With that in mind, even CarMax looks poised to have a hard time.

As the economy (if you can call it that) falls off the cliff, one of these two (CMX, CVNA), is not likely to survive.

So, we can expect even deeper discounts.

However, this time, it’s likely to be a choice between buying food or buying the SUV at 70% – 80%, off retail.

On the positive side, that SUV can be put to work hauling fertilizer (if it can be found) for raised bed gardens. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Heart Failure’ … The New Normal

… What It Could Mean For Biotech

So, now it starts.

This just out from ZeroHedge, linked here, shows the ‘elephant’ has begun to go mainstream.

Another chess-move.

At least one previous post (No.1, linked here), has shown the phenomenon is not a one-off event.

Now, according to the link above, there’s an estimated 300,000 affected … and we’re just getting started.

Insiders Sell … Retail Buys

Do those at the highest levels know their customer base is about to evaporate on a world-wide basis?

While they may not know every detail, they at least know something’s up. Steven Van Metre discusses the insider selling in his latest update, linked here.

Front End Phenomenon

We’re still at the beginning stages of an event that in the opinion of this author, is going to last the lifetime of those reading this post.

‘Hyperbolic statement’ one might say.

To that, I would counter with this; when it was posted, the ‘elephant’ was hyperbolic as well.

Now? Not so much.

Keeping that long range thinking in mind also keeps one from choosing the ‘insane’ human behaviors discussed by Dan (I Allegedly) in his latest post.

So, let’s take a look at what type of insanity we have going on in the markets today.

Of course, that points us to our chief cook and bottle washer, biotech (IBB).

Biotech, IBB

When we last left our hero, savior, and protector of all that is natural immunity, the biotech discussion was on Moderna (MRNA).

The thrust higher, detailed in this post was thought to be too fast for a sustained reversal. Well, it was right and wrong at the same time.

Moderna wound up reversing … sort of.

At the same time, the biotech sector headed lower to support and is now moving higher.

The weekly IBB, chart has the support (lower blue line) and potential up-thrust location (also 50%, retrace) identified.

The zoom shows the narrow gap between the weekly bars and 50% retrace.

If price action makes it past the resistance bars and into the gap, IBB would then be in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Silver: Leading The Way, Lower

Already Below Resistance

While gold (GLD) is just above its resistance breakout, silver’s not waiting around.

It’s already below its breakout; apparently leading to the downside.

Using ‘boots on the ground’ type reporting from sources like Jerimiah Babe and Dan (I Allegedly), the financial collapse is accelerating.

The metals look like they’re not exempt from financial conditions (deflation); they’re at the cusp of reversal.

Silver (SLV) Daily Chart:

The next chart zooms in on the reversal area.

It’s clear; SLV is now below resistance … a bearish indication.

At some point and if you live long enough (and have a working brain) you realize it’s all about manipulation.

Everything is manipulated.

Separating from that trap is akin to mental bravery; setting you apart from the mindless herd and at times, in opposition to that herd.

Silver (SLV) is down a whopping -53% from its high set over a decade ago in April of 2011. How can we be in inflation or hyperinflation?

That’s to come … maybe.

Right now, silver’s giving us a signal; lower prices ahead.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Gets Whacked !

Mid Session

… But, That’s Not The Real Story

First, this morning’s action in gold (GLD) tells us, it’s not a bull market.

The asylum escapees (gold bulls) from yesterday, might paint today’s action as a buying opportunity.

Well, it could be a buying opportunity for short term trades (not advice, not a recommendation) but that’s not what this site is about.

Bull markets do not let you get aboard comfortably.

Case in point:

For those old enough to remember, harken back to the bull market launch of 1995.

Remember that?

It seemed like every day was up into new highs with nary a retracement until a year and a half later.

No, there’s something else going on with gold.

It may indeed continue to move lower from here. However, there’s a price action feel that’s not right.

GLD:

Potential Coup D’état Set-Up ?

Those who own the gold market(s) know full well, there’s a bunch of rabid ‘collapse’ types who believe the metal’s their salvation ticket out of events to come.

Those in control, need to get as many as possible on the wrong side of the trade before there can be a sustained long-term (or fast and sharp) down move.

Such a move, if it goes low enough and fast enough, would likely take out the majority of the ‘stacking’ community.

Looking at the un-marked chart of gold (GLD), just where would that location be … where everyone, except the few, are positioned incorrectly?

As discussed previously, the area shown below would be a good location for an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

In addition, that location’s between the 38% and 50%, retrace level(s) from August 2020, to March 2021.

One can speculate on just what would cause or enable a last-gasp push higher above the GLD 171, level.

Well, for starters, how about a massive volcanic eruption that results in long-term destruction on both sides of the Atlantic.

As Dan (I Allegedly) says with his post just out, ‘the economy is in a perfect storm’.

Anything can happen.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hidden In Plain Sight

Mid Session:

The best way to hide something, is to put it out there for all to see:

In plain sight

However, for the oligarch’s target audience, the proletariat, they can’t actually ‘see’. It’s all by design.

They’re hypnotized, programmed, demoralized; just doing and not thinking.

Which home improvement center has the tag line played over and over through their speaker system (paraphrasing) ‘doers getting things done’.

If you think about it, ‘Doers’ don’t think. They just ‘do’. A perfectly controllable, mindless herd.

Going one step further, is to have these proles so mentally damaged, they actually think, there’re thinking.

Which brings us to our chief cook and bottle washer for the day: Southwest Airlines

Southwest Cancels Flights:

The official company line is cancellations were due to weather which is obviously not true.

This report from KHOU in Houston, says the cancellations were about something else. It’s in the title but that’s not what the news story’s really about.

Go ahead and watch. Stop the video after thirty seconds and tell me (figuratively) what’s the real intent.

If you can ‘see’, it’ll be obvious.

Actually, this was an easy one.

This news story has nothing to do with cancellations and everything to do with ‘compliance.’

Present the image over and over of compliance (masks) and then it takes on a life of its own.

For example, we can see that type of compliance in this Facebook post (at left) put out in my area just yesterday.

It’s not hard to surmise (and tragically, so) there’s probably not going to be a ‘Second Year’ photo shoot.

This Is Now:

I have family members that essentially fall into two camps:

The first, plugs their ears and chant “la, la, la, it’s not happening”.

The other camp mumbles over and over (for years now) “it shouldn’t be this way”.

Neither camp has, is, or will do anything to get ready.

Icing on the cake is the typical response of, ‘Your information’s not from a reputable source’.

What, like Fox News?

You may, and probably do have similar stories.

In line with it’s not happening, or the government should fix it so it won’t be this way, we have Dan from I Allegedly.

He just posted another update. At time stamp 20:20, people are still expecting a fourth stimulus check.

That’s something else that’s not happening.

Which all brings us to what really is happening … our second topic of the day: Biotech

Biotech SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

It’s been an up day for biotech (down for LABD) thus far but that’s not the real story.

The chart below is from earlier in the session. We’re looking at the leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the hourly basis:

Next, we have our ‘usual suspects’ mark-up showing us the potential opportunity:

From a personal standpoint, being short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) has been tiring.

Especially on days like today.

You can watch your main account fluctuate (in the red) by what used to be, in the corporate world, two to four week’s pay; all happening in a single hour.

However, even as this post is being created, we now have LABD posting the following:

Upside action off the spring looks strong. However, there could still be a downward test.

SPBIO, Last Chance?:

Intuitively, this could be it for biotech (SPBIO) to the upside.

The reason for that conclusion is:

If the spring set up holds with sustained upward action in LABD, it sets up a potential measured move condition (not shown); targeting LABD to much higher levels.

In that case, SPBIO would move lower … much lower and possibly well past any nearby major support.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

Special “Zombie” Edition

No. 1

“Brainless Zombies”

Those of us that still have a functioning, critical thinking brain, are at a loss to describe the idiocy of the masses.

The Maverick of Wall Street calls them “brainless zombies” (time stamp 3:50).

Dan, at I Allegedly, looks to the sky and searches for words to explain the phenomenon.

During his walk-and-talks, he has struggled but finally came up with “Imbecile”.

Jerimiah Babe calls them “These People”

No matter what we call them, for a number yet to be determined, they’re ‘dead men walking‘.

No. 2

Cat watches Tom & Jerry

No. 3

“Zombie Watch”

Looks like the generation that may have little to no experience on how mass genocide via dictatorship starts, is about to find out.

First, they watch you … all the time.

Then …

No. 4

Dan Gets ‘Edgy’

In an attitude that seems similar to this site, Dan gets into who he wants as a relator (time stamp 13:00).

That is, not some hairdresser that just got their license six months ago but someone who’s ‘been in the trenches’ as he says. Someone who was ‘around during the 2008, crash’.

Someone who’s a hardened and tough negotiator.

As the economy, the food supply, energy supplies and now volcanic eruptions/earthquakes continue to destroy the infrastructure, it’s likely the population that stands to survive, will get very focused on experience.

Paper (degrees) hanging on the wall, as so-called ‘qualifications’ are no substitute for brutal, raw-edged competence.

No. 5

DC-3 (C-47) Low Pass

Go to time stamp 7:13, and turn up the the volume.

No. 6

“Visor & Mask” Zombies

The following comment, taken from one of Dan’s (I Allegedly) posts, linked here.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 2021-09-29_11-20-54-dan-comment.png

It may be hard to read. Several areas have been expanded and shown below:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 2021-09-29_11-20-54-dan-comment-expand-1.png
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 2021-09-29_11-20-54-dan-comment-expand-3.png

That last comment, repeated:

“But honestly, I think we deserve it. The stupidity today is unprecedented and it’s not sustainable.”

Hmmm, where have we heard that sentiment before?

This site, maybe?

No. 7

“Penal Colony” … Australia

As a corollary to No 3, remember back a few years ago, when the Aussies made a big deal about turning in and/or destroying their means of ‘protection’?

Well zombies, now we see the result.

No. 8

Dutch Greenhouse Goes Dark

Solve for the following equation:

Does, (Stupid) X (Stupid) = Zombie?

Well, let’s see.

First, we’ll cut our coal fired energy sources.

“Stupid”

Then, we’ll power our food supply production (an absolute necessity) with whatever unreliable energy source is left.

“Stupid”

Oh, wait.

Let’s bring those coal fired plants back on line.

You know, the ones we haven’t bulldozed yet to get our food production back on track.

“Zombie”

Indeed: We have (Stupid) X (Stupid) = Zombie

No. 9

Creedence Clearwater: Run Through The Jungle

The music and the film footage are excellent. They set the scene.

Perhaps, more important are comments such as this one:

I was born in 65. In the 70s this CCR tune made my fathers eye turn to what I later learned was called the “thousand yard stare”. That’s when I knew it was time for me to just quietly slip out of the room. I could literally see/sense his fear and pain. he didn’t, get mean, just distant and quiet, until the day he died. A lot of you know exactly what I mean. This song did a lot to help me understand him and his friends. Now that we are both a lot older, I only wish I could take some of that weight from him and carry it for him, and maybe give him some space to recover some of his lost soul. I can’t be the only son who has, and still does cry for my father and what he had taken from him.

Even better, is the first comment that replies to the above:

“How many women and children did he kill?”

I say it’s better because ladies and gentlemen, it may be a perfect example of the zombie mentality that could be nearly, if not fully eradicated during our up-coming trials.

Recall, from No. 6, above:

The stupidity today is unprecedented and it’s not sustainable.

Of course, our village idiot’s comment did not go unchallenged.

Many replies followed throughout the link and included a good amount of, “Thank you for your service”.

We’ll end our ‘Notes’ with the following; also from the same link.

If you honestly want to thank a veteran. Become a citizen worthy of being fought for

Which then begs the question: Are you, or am I, that citizen?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Three In A Row

Early Session

It’s Official:

Down, Three Quarters In A Row

No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.

Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.

So, what does this mean?

Slow At First. Then, All At Once:

The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.

The second answer is more complicated.

As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.

We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.

As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.

The resulting shortages are intentional.

The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.

It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.

More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.

Of course, some of them are.

However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.

I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.

Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.

I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.

The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.

This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.

Instantaneous Shift:

That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.

Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.

All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO Analysis:

Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.

The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:

The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.

The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.

It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Elephant In The Room

Mid Session

… It’s Already Here

Nearly simultaneously, all three YouTube channels that are monitored closely, have shifted their focus.

This phenomenon, instant change among disparate parties, has been well documented in the science community (before that community became corrupt) with animals on separate continents.

In short, it was found that herds of animals would instantly change their behavior to be congruent with each other even though there was no direct visible or physical connection.

It’s sort of a ‘collective consciousness’ phenomenon.

The YouTube presenters being discussed are:

I Allegedly

Jerimiah Babe

Texas Silver

Dan (I Allegedly) has literally thousands upon thousands of contacts. He’s an invaluable source of information.

He also has the stamina to sit through a Fed speech, Senate or Congressional hearings and the like … then report on what’s being discussed.

Jerimiah Babe gives us ‘boots on the ground’ reporting about the economic collapse so that we can see it for ourselves.

Texas Silver has the warrior mentality (and is not some coward ‘poser’ with useless crap all over his AR), showing us a working homestead and all that’s involved.

Their instantaneous shift in direction is being highlighted; not the importance of their channels which remains at the high end.

From a physical standpoint (like the animals separated by continents) they are not physically connected to each other.

Pulling Away From Precious Metals

Yet, all three have pulled away (in varying degrees) from the ‘stacking’ mentality.

Admittedly, Dan was never really a stacker … but he has changed direction; now talking about procuring supplies, food, water, medicines.

Be aware, there may be yet another collective shift (this time, world-wide) on the horizon.

Festering in the background, is an event that won’t be able to be ignored or dismissed as ‘conspiracy’ much longer .

It’s important to get out in front (if you aren’t already) and position oneself accordingly.

Which brings us to the elephant.

Biotech, SPBIO:

That elephant is, we’re at the front end of a potential mass genocide event (that’s already underway).

Conditions are already set in motion for a loss of the world-wide population of at least 5% – 10%, in the next 2, to 5 years (and that’s probably very conservative).

The chief cook and bottle washer in all of this, is biotech.

LABD (3X Inverse SPBIO):

Several charts are below. The vertical scale has been compressed to show the potential of the nascent move:

Today is the last trading day of the third quarter.

SPBIO, is on track to post lower three quarters in a row. No other major index is in the same position.

It seems to be taking forever but the case against biotech continues to build.

Positioning:

No doubt we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice not a recommendation), in a big way.

LABD has apparently finished its downward testing.

Now, as discussed (here and here), price action is alternating to the upside.

With that in mind, the new daily high of yesterday has not yet been reversed. This is alternating action when compared to the daily high reversal of September 20th.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Hey Dan … ‘Dude, Your Posts Are Getting So Dark’

Not sure what these snowflakes are expecting; Dan is one of the more positive ones.

Maybe they still think they’re going to watch the market and societal collapse from the comforts of their own back yard.

No. 2

School’s In Session: Bring Out The Masks!

This time around, it’s different. Even deep in the heart of the gulag, it looks like there’s an awakening.

This link is from a board meeting in San Diego

No. 3

Just 15-Days To Go

Before the end of speck ‘assistance‘.

That assistance ends September 6th, which is the Monday after Labor Day.

The Monday after Labor Day 1929, was the market peak.

No. 4

One Of Their Own!

You’re part of the ruling class. You were told you’re just going to get ‘saline’.

But then, you spot one of your comrades (that was in line with you) coming down with this

No. 5

In Good Company

Steven Van Metre comes out with his Sunday Night Charts …. and at time stamp 10:54, his conclusion is the same as yesterday’s report.

Gold and the miners ‘on the edge of an abyss’.

No. 6

Defining Moment In History

Jimmy Carter had this image to define is impotent presidency; so too now, we have this image to define an incompetent, not even a presidency.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Now, It’s A Depression

3:43 p.m., EST

Recession’s over … Depression starts

Boots on the ground update from Dan at ‘I Allegedly’.

Drastically reduced economic activity at premium retail locations.

From Uneducated Economist: There’s news the lumber mills are going to curtail production … right in the middle of summer … the high season.

Couple that with the strange ‘going’s on’ reported at this link concerning the database that’s being monitored.

Then, we have another strange ‘coincidence‘ that takes place every hundred years like clockwork.

Which brings us to the sector at hand: Biotech

SPBIO Analysis:

We’ve taken the hourly chart of biotech SPBIO, and inverted it; shown below:

Price action pushed through the spring set up conditions noted in the last update.

SPBIO went on to retrace to the 38%, level … where it is now.

Looking at the price structure of inverse fund LABD (not shown), the downward thrust energy on a daily basis has declined significantly.

That analysis to be forthcoming.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.