Category Archives: Thoughtful Money

Margin Call

November 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Thoughtful Money

‘So, It Begins’

“Incredibly Dangerous”; the tagline on the last update for semiconductors, A.I. and the SOXX, link here.

The chart for the SOXX, showed a measured move, to the 320-area.

It never made it.

After-hours on October 29th, the SOXX high was 313, exactly.

Conversely, the high for Nvidia, same day, was 212.19 which rounds to 212.2. It’s all just a ‘concidence’. 🙂

Old Spin & New Spin

Just like that, the press has thrown out the old propaganda and ushered in the new.

Now, it’s an ‘implosion’, link here and here.

As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.

That’s the ‘implosion’?

Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Healthcare at The Wedge

November 2, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Bernanke, Ed Dowd, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-08

Looking Behind The Curtain

Healthcare’s recent behavior seems to have revived an old theory:

The ‘cockroach theory‘

Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.

So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

‘Isolated’

That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.

Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?

Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.

Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close

We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.

After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.

Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.

It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Nvidia Crater by 90%?

October 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CSCO, Ed Dowd, MRNA, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17, Thoughtful Money

Sell & Hold

During an interview with Thoughtful Money (link here), Ed Dowd says this about the A.I. bubble:

‘When it’s all said and done, Nvidia will be down by 80% – 90%’

This morning, the SOXX just printed a new daily high. Does that mean the reversal has been negated?

That depends on what happens next.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We have the all time high and up-thrust. Then, the trend break (yesterday), and now the test.

Obviously, there’s a lot of volatility.

If this is ‘the’ reversal of the A. I. mania, possibly the largest bubble in market history, then action like this, is ‘normal’. 🙂

Just like Cisco Networks was chief cook and bottle washer back in the day, this time, it’s Nvidia.

When it was all said and done, CSCO declined over -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banks ‘Rolling Over’

October 21, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, KRE, KRE-25-02, Ox Talks, Positions, Thoughtful Money

Market Summary, Ed Dowd

The section at left, shows the bank (KRE) rebound from last Thursday’s sell-off, losing steam.

In the early part of this interview with Ed Dowd, he states the banks are ‘rolling over’ as a result of a ‘toxic brew’ of economic conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see that (potential) in the chart.

Adding to that, we have this, from ‘Ox Talks’.

It’s a technical rundown of the latest fraud and lawsuit. Well worth the 17-minutes to view.

That was yesterday. Today, he’s out with more, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking Sector Breakdown

October 2, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Thoughtful Money, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-07

Top & Trend

Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed, and now appears to have formed a nascent down-trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Top ten components are listed here.

Of those ten, nine are directly related to banking, credit or the insane (dubbed ‘pornographic‘) valuations of the market.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

There’s an open short position, XLF-25-17, with stop located at yesterday’s high.

After today’s session, that stop will be moved lower to the high of today, currently at XLF 53.48 (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, although the trend appears to be lower, XLF has penetrated established support.

That puts it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. Some (marginal) upside is to be expected.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Pornographic’ (stock) Valuations

September 15, 2025 By in Thoughtful Money

A New Adjective

Back in the day, it was ‘richly’ valued, ‘over’ valued, ‘overbought’, ‘stretched’, and ‘irrational exuberance’.

Now, there’s a new description being bandied:

‘Pornographically Over-Valued’

The first ten-minutes or so, at this link is all one needs to see, to understand the backdrop of where we are from a market perspective.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279