Category Archives: TLT

Gold Down. Why?

January 9, 2021 By in Bonds, Dollar, GLD, GOLD, TLT, UUP

We have the usual suspects rolled out; providing expert analysis on why gold went down.

The answer is quite simple. It tested a trend break, then reversed.

If we look at the (close) chart of GLD, it broke an uptrend during the week of November 20th, last year; went lower and then back to test.

That test was rejected dramatically with Gold (GLD), heading significantly lower; getting whacked down over 5%, in just two days.

This is not bull market behavior.

Steven Van Metre’s assessment (at this juncture) that we’re in a deflation event is being shown correct. The lagging factor in the scenario is the overall market … still near all-time highs.

It’s true bonds broke lower (rates up) this week but that’s another event answered by technicals; the wedge formation, discussed here.

Both bonds and the dollar have set the stage for a swift reversal.

Just how that’ll affect an extended, obscenely overvalued, stretched, call options wild market with everybody all-in, is not known.

Getting back to Van Metre; he’s reported, during this past week, small traders/speculators added to short (bond) futures positions.

If there’s a signal bonds are stretched, ready to reverse, it’s the little-guy just now getting in (going short) …. right at the bottom; as usual.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bonds Pulled Tight

January 8, 2021 By in Bonds, TLT 2 Comments

Overnight and early pre-market, bonds have completed a measured move.

Using the 10-yr note (futures) as the proxy for overnight, we’ve updated the TLT chart to show the target (bottom of dashed line).

The low was hit overnight; now bonds are edging back higher.

It’s like a drawstring pulled tight.

As Livermore said years ago (in Reminiscences), the manipulators will push a stock to the sell levels they want but not too much.

Too much of a push will bring in more selling and they’ll lose control.

Bonds pulled tight but not too tight.

The long bond was already sold short the most in history. It’s possible speculators are even more short now.

Dollar also higher in overnight and pre-market; that could be shutting the trap for bears in both markets.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bonds Down

January 7, 2021 By in Bonds, TLT

Bonds closed decisively below support at the last session.

This morning in the pre-market, they are trading near the bottom of yesterday’s range.

The TLT chart has the details. We have the ‘Wyckoff Wedge’ (as we’re calling it) as discussed in a prior update.

We’re at the danger point and in spring position.

That means, if bonds push back above the resistance and test, it’s a strong indication of a huge rally to come.

Think of the wedge as a clock pendulum oscillating down to zero.

To get the clock started again, the pendulum must be pulled to one side and then let go.

Separately, as a result of this price action, Steven Van Metre, is starting to lose some fans. Nothing against him.

It’s just that a vast majority of the investing public, has very little idea of how the markets actually work.

Wyckoff called it the ‘Composite Operator’.

Today’s interpretation could be called the ‘Central Mind’. There is manipulation behind everything … always has been.

A push below support, is doing what the Central Mind wants.

That is, the bond bulls to give up, lose their following, have accounts pulled (withdrawn) and for them to start questioning their own analysis.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Before The Open

January 6, 2021 By in TLT

It’s busy in the pre-market and the big story is bonds.

The last update, using Wyckoff as the example, said bonds would break to the upside from the wedge formation.

Sometimes before such a break, there’ll be a momentary push in the opposite direction.  Then the real (reversal) move starts. That may be what’s happening now.

Looking at TLT, pre-market is trading below well-established support.  If that’s where TLT opens, it may be the last gasp for the bears. 

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bond Bears Exhausted

January 3, 2021 By in TLT 2 Comments

About a year after Teddy Roosevelt left office, Wyckoff published his seminal work; Studies in Tape Reading. That year, was 1910.

Wyckoff was the one that defined support, resistance, accumulation and distribution.

He was the one that discovered markets have a power of their own; having nothing to do with any fundamentals.

Wyckoff found that if you can decipher price action, you can determine the most probable direction.

A first edition Wyckoff ‘Tape Reading’ text … if you can find it, goes for about $3,500. 

Even lesser known books of Wyckoff such as this one, go for hefty sums.

In his ‘Tape Reading’ text, on page 102, he shows a diagram that represents price action exhaustion.

His discussion (repeated below) is concerning the bull side. 

For today’s chart of TLT, we’ll mentally swap every ‘bull’ notation from Wyckoff with ‘bear’ and conversely, every ‘top’ notation with ‘bottom’, every ‘buy’ notation with ‘sell’ and so on.

 “ … and you see what the chart of  a stock or the market looks like when it reaches a point of dullness.

These dull periods often occur after a season of delirious activity on the bull side.  People make money, pyramid on their profits and glut themselves with stocks at the top.  As everyone is loaded up, there is comparatively no one left to buy and the break which inevitability follows would happen if there were no bears, no bad news or anything else to force a decline.”

The ‘dull’ period he is discussing is shown below in TLT.  It has repeated the diagram on his page 102, in near identical fashion.

We have supplementary evidence from Steven Van Metre during this report, the bond bears have started to back off their historic short positions.

They are trapped and exhausted; all their selling has not collapsed bonds as anticipated.

So, let’s see what happens next.  According to a text written 110-years ago, we are expecting a rally in bonds .. a massive rally.

Quotes used with permission

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

AT&T Outage Map

December 27, 2020 By in Bonds, TLT

The last update, posted just hours ago said this:

“The “Christmas Bomb” cut communication lines … which by the way is the very first objective during any battle; cut the enemy’s communications.

Matter of fact; that could be the ‘reason’. A test to see how badly communications were disrupted; how quickly they recovered.“

At time stamp 2:00 in this link, Salty Cracker shows the AT&T outage map; nearly half of the U.S. has been affected.

Next week, the markets could rally on such news. Anything can happen.

However, lack of communication means lack of commerce … for an unknown amount of time.

Downside action would seem more probable.

There’s still one more day before the open on Monday … seems like a long way away.

It’s possible by that time, participants will want the safety of bonds.

Bonds that are already sold-short, the most in history.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Big Money, Big Move

December 11, 2020 By in Bonds, DUG, Livermore, The Speck, TLT, UUP

The big money is in the big move. 

One recent example; the bond move from late 2018, to early 2020.

During the low from October 2018 to November that year, were reports of professionals opening huge long positions. 

At the time and as the weeks went by, it appeared that nothing was happening. 

The delay would have caused the typical i-phone addicted ‘tweeter’ to lose interest many times over.

When it finally took off, bonds staged a huge directional move that lasted over a year.

Such moves are rare and require the ability to wait. Wait to get in and wait for the move; minimize transactions.

Each market transaction is an opportunity for error.  Minimize the transactions and by definition, the errors are minimized as well.

That brings us to oil and more specifically, XOP and DUG.

The nonsense being promulgated by the financial press is that oil is moving higher on ‘hopes’ for an economic recovery.

Maybe injecting the world-wide population with potentially DNA altering technology (not even tested on animals first) for an ailment that does not exist will miraculously launch some kind of pent up consumer demand.

No matter. Oil and its attendants keep moving higher with the dollar moving lower.

Even with anecdotal evidence from an Oklahoma oil field worker (commenting on a Van Metre update) that was later confirmed by the EIA report did not cause oil to move lower … yet.

That is, until today.

The dollar attempted to continue its downtrend yesterday.  Oil spiked as did XOP to the upside and DUG to the downside.

This morning is a different story.  Dollar proxy, UUP is trading (pre-market) right at its highs of the last session in an apparent reversal. 

Oil along with XOP is down, with DUG up.

Looking at XOP, we see it’s hitting a long-established trend line. 

With the dollar, bond, and overall market extremes, no recovery in sight and more probable, another (and complete) collapse; this may be the spot (not advice, not a recommendation) to position for medium to long term on the short side.

That’s exactly what the firm has done.  Looks like our position was a day too early as we sat through yesterday’ spike lower in DUG.

Volume remained heavy for that DUG session. Weekly volume is looking to be the largest (big-money moving in) since at least 2015.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bond Test

December 2, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, DUST, GDX, TLT 1 Comment

Bonds (TLT) were hit hard during the last session.  Are higher rates ahead?

The short answer is no … if the test shown in the TLT chart holds.

What we have is typical market action at a significant reversal. 

Putting it in perspective, the push below support (blue line) lasted a full three days before reversing higher.

Then we have twelve days of upward recovery until yesterday.  Price action was slammed -1.57%.

It might look like we’re headed back to lower bond prices and higher rates; in effect, what we really have is a test of the reversal.

You can almost feel it. A major event is near.

The equity markets at all time highs … extremes of ‘retail’ participation never seen before. 

Couple that with the largest-ever short position in the bond market (about to get squeezed). 

The dollar’s at the bottom of its trading range … gold already heading lower.

The sense is a major market reversal is very near.  It’s probably already happening but just not obvious enough … yet.

We’re not going long the bond market but rather going short other markets.

Most of the short position in DUST was exited during the last session when price action came back to the intra day highs.  The potential squeeze got a reprieve at least for the day.

It’s important to note, yesterday’s GDX move went to a near exact Fibonacci retrace of 23.6%.  The down-trend could proceed at any time.

Separately, a short was entered in the biotech sector via BIS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market activity (as of 9:02 a.m. EST) for IBB indicates a lower open with BIS correspondingly higher.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Testing: 1, 2, 3

November 14, 2020 By in Bonds, GLD, TLT, UUP 1 Comment

The dollar has reversed and is now testing the lows. 

Conversely, when we look at the price action of gold (GLD) its collapse exactly mimics the dollar’s reversal.

Taking into account the futures market activity in gold, it made new daily highs last week during the overnight session, Sunday-to-Monday. 

Using that knowledge on GLD, (adding it to price action) it retraced to 38%, of the recent down move this past Friday.

If we’re in a real bona fide reversal of the dollar and gold (posting more confirmation on gold tomorrow), then expectations are for continued gold downside during the coming week.

The dollar, bonds and gold, at this juncture are moving in tandem:  Dollar and bonds up, gold (and silver) down.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bond Reversal

November 12, 2020 By in Bonds, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, TLT

In the past three days, bonds (TLT) penetrated support and stopped dead.

Anytime a market penetrates support or resistance and halts, it’s an indication that something’s up.

Either the market‘s absorbing transactions at that level to continue on, or it’s a reversal about to happen.

With all that’s known on the short position by the speculators as well as another Van Metre report, bank lending standards, probabilities point toward bond reversal.

The dollar is already reversing higher.  Gold has been viciously slammed lower and the overall market’s hovering at all time highs.

The Dow edged lower at the last session. This session in the pre-market (9:01 a.m., EST) it’s lower again at -1.94 points or -0.66%.

If the Dow (DIA) gets below the 290- area, it’s below resistance and another move higher may be difficult indeed.

We’re short the sector via DXD (not advice, not a recommendation). A new daily low for DIA will allow our position’s stop to be moved to DXD 13.49.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.