Category Archives: TZA-24-01

Oil Bounce … Part II

August 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Federal Reserve, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, IWM, Oil, Oil & Gas, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, TZA, TZA-24-01, USO, XOP

Is This It?

We’ve gone form “Not Happening” to this morning’s action; ‘maybe it’s happening?’

As was done with Oil & Gas exploration XOP, we’ll now take a look at the oil patch itself and proxy, USO.

Oil tracking Fund, USO, Close

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart.

We either have the ‘tradable bounce‘, or a potential contact point for the right-side channel line (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Fed announcement is just out, essentially accommodating a rate cut in September.

There was talk of some ‘cooling’ in the market (Ya think?).

With that, demand for oil seems like it would take a hit putting it lightly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning.

The market itself is telling us where to go and what to do.

The important item for the day; what is the market not doing? Specifically, the Semiconductors, SOXX.

The SOXX, has not made a new (daily) high (at least, not yet) after the Fed’s announcement; it can even be seen as the ‘proverbial gut-check’, a la David Weis.

With that, all other positions have been closed save the short in the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Danger Ahead

The ‘rate cut’ has yet to happen and September is a long way away.

It can’t be re-iterated enough how dangerous is this environment; prices stretched via a narrative that’s false (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000, Search for ‘Danger’

August 19, 2024 By in David Weis, DRV, DRV-24-03, IWM, IYR, Real Estate, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-24-01, Wyckoff

Testing at The Axis

At this juncture, Russell 2000, IWM is not only looking for The Danger Point®, but at the close of this session, it’s there.

While everyone else is breathlessly calling the ‘end of the correction’, we’re working the market from a strictly objective standpoint.

That is, what’s the market saying about itself?

With that, take a look.

Russell 2000, ETF IWM

“What do you see?”

Well, it appears that we’re at the point where it can go either way.

It’s as if the ‘weight of a feather’ could move the market (Wyckoff, 1910).

Positioning

From a positioning standpoint, this is where the risk is least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Low risk does not mean no risk. It just means a potential inflection point.

Housekeeping

As stated in this update, the short trade via DRV, had a tight stop. That position was exited early in the session with a ding (loss) of about 4%.

Moving on to the market at hand.

David Weis mentored his students to look for trades at the ‘edge of the lake’.

We’re there with the price action of IWM. Several attempts (up to a point) to position short are to be expected (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279