Biotech Breakdown … Is This It?

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, USO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

‘Respecting’ Fibonacci … So Far

Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.

‘Zero Respect For Thieves’

Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.

When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.

Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).

It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂

Now, on to biotech.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.

We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.

As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.

In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bullish … ‘, Gasoline Futures

April 14, 2024 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO 2 Comments

The Crowd Bets On Higher Prices

Just a few hours after the update on Nat-gas and oil was released, we have this from ZeroHedge, link here.

‘largest bullish positions, gasoline futures and options’

So, what do we think is going to happen next?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas, Goes Negative

April 13, 2024 By in Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas, UNG, USO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

… At Least, In Texas

Storage facilities in Texas are paying to have someone take excess Nat-gas.

As this link says, the ‘reason’ for negative Nat-gas, is high oil prices prompt drillers to increase oil production, along with (by-product) Nat-gas, driving down the price.

We’ll cover Nat-gas (UNG) in a separate update which by the way, on Friday, posted another Wyckoff spring set-up.

The question du jour is, ‘does oil go higher from here?‘

If oil is going higher (or likely to go), then Nat-gas may be pressured downward for longer.

International Chaos

The amount of ‘pontificating’ from the media on what oil is, or is not going to do, is mind-numbing.

Wyckoff himself said, we’re attempting to find out ‘the next probable direction’ for the market, which of course, can never be known for sure.

With that, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the chart.

Oil Tracking Fund, USO, Weekly

Shown on the chart, is a Fibonacci projection from the lows of March 2023, to the first wave high of April ’23, then back down to the wave low, in May ’23.

It might be hard to see, so the first waves are highlighted with green dashed lines.

At this point, instead of asking the question ‘where’s oil going?’, a better question may be, ‘is the chart of USO “respecting” the Fibonacci projections?’

Looking at the chart, it’s an obvious, yes.

Right now, we’re at the 161.8%, projection and USO is hesitating; at the same time, Nat-gas, UNG, appears to be forming a long-term bottom (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part II

April 12, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Inflation, SLV, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

More Volume … Less Net Distance

It’s been about a week since the last update on silver and the ‘usual suspects’ are out in force … again.

One of these days … Alice!

I like the metals as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t help when it’s time to stay focused on what the market’s (really) saying.

This week’s volume in SLV, was more than last week by about 16%, but net distance traveled (at the close) was far less … about 74%, less net travel … ruh, roh.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

There’s a wide price spike for the week but it’s the close, that’s the important part, holding just above resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is important.

Typical market behavior for silver suggests we’re at or near a top and due for some kind of downside move if not a complete reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Different This Time

If this time really is different and we’re in the long-awaited hyperinflation move, we’ll probably find out soon.

If that’s the case, meaning, it really is different, one would expect the behavior of the metals to change; like silver holds its current level, moves higher, or starts congesting for another up-wave.

So, let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats & Trendlines

April 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

What’s The Market Telling Us?

Every market has its own style.

In the case of biotech, we’ve been attempting to verify a trendline as well as a trading channel.

At this point for XBI, it looks like there are several of each.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’ll present the chart with lines, channel(s), and let the viewer decide.

The zoom area shows contact points.

Note, the entire channel is a Fibonacci 13-Days, wide.

Add to that, counting from the left channel line to the center line (contact point), is a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Stopped Short

As always, anything can happen.

If I was short this market, 🙂 , where would I put my stop?

A different way to think about that question, is to ask another question.

At this point in the market action, where would the premise of downward reversal (from testing resistance) be seriously damaged or negated outright?

Looking at the chart, one could reasonably say, the answer is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Globe Life … ‘Vaporized’

April 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, GL, LABD, Life Insurance, SPBIO, XBI

Is This, The ‘Go-Forward’ Model?

In just one day, Globe Life closes down – 53.14%, on historic volume, over 35-million shares.

No matter the narrative, it shows just how fast a market can implode.

Years ago, while watching an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests commented on a corporation that released (unexpectedly) bad earnings.

He said … ‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’.

Does anyone think Globe Life is, or will be, an isolated incident? This could even be a ‘Lehman Moment‘ and we just don’t know it (not advice, not a recommendation).

Up-coming (potential) problems with life insurance have already been covered; best described in this brief four-minute clip, link here.

The Biotech Connection

The connection between biotech and life insurance can be correlated with this link and this one.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

The chart below, is slightly different from one’s typically presented on this site.

It’s on the daily timeframe but it’s compressed to better show the sector sub-dividing lower.

Yesterday’s Fibonacci analysis may still apply but we won’t really know until we see tomorrow’s action.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Globe Life Crash … -45%, So Far …

April 11, 2024 By in Biotech, GL, MET, The Speck

‘Fraud’ Is The Narrative

Here’s the latest news (as of 2:03 p.m., EST), link here.

Note, the article says the shares ‘tumbled’ … hardly, it’s a crash … take a look at the chart, link here.

The life insurance sector, and more specifically Globe Life (GL) along with Met Life (MET), have been on the watch list for reasons discussed many times on this site.

The Biotech Link

Possibly related (correlated) to the life insurance industry is biotech.

We’ll discuss that sector, XBI, in an upcoming update. The synopsis is that XBI could make a brief new daily high today (or at the open tomorrow).

If so, it could put the sector in a minor up-thrust position, while still in an overall down trend.

More later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Beat Up & Down

April 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci Day 13

Biotech’s been beat up and down so much, you can lose track of what’s really happening.

Include the financial media side-show, and it’s a recipe for confusion and delay.

In the case of biotech XBI, it had a ‘change of character’ on March 21st, then morphed into a trading channel.

Now, it looks like it has a Fibonacci time correlation.

It all sounds complicated, so let’s take a look.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The original change of character, identified in this post.

Yesterday, Tuesday, was Fibonacci Day 13, from the point where the ‘change’ was noted.

It appears, the market used Tuesday, to post the right side (supply side) of the current trading channel.

Of course, there have been no ‘confirming’ hits on that right side so far; we just have one data point.

As the action unfolds, the key is to look for the market to adhere to the channel or tell us that something else is happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sorry, No Rate Cuts

That’s news to some.

On this site, it’s been a working premise for over a year.

Remember, back then, it was called ‘The Pivot’:

“Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.”

Now, the man behind the curtain has been exposed, here and here, it may get very dangerous … as if it’s not already.

This post is being released (12:52 p.m., EST) before the Fed minutes. No telling what kind of volatility may, or may not, ensue from there.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … The ‘Sleeper’

April 6, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff

Any Bulls Left?

It’s all bearish on the Nat-gas front.

Way back in 2001, it was all bearish on the gold front as well; lows were around $254/oz. – $255/oz.

How did that work out?

No, Nat-gas is not gold but at this point, it’s possibly just as ignored as gold was, then.

The strategy or potential reasons for a rally in Nat-gas, have already been addressed here and here.

So, we’ll cut to the chase, looking at the proxy, UNG.

Natural Gas, UNG, Daily

It’s possible, the March 27th, penetration of support (covered here) and subsequent recovery, is a Wyckoff spring set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

If we’re in a spring with the wedge in-effect, meaning, the market’s not going to morph into another structure, then it’s likely, Friday’s action was a test of both the spring and the wedge (breakout).

Supporting the ‘test’ scenario, we have Friday’s action pulling back to the lows; volume contracts by over 37%, when compared to the day prior, Thursday.

Of course, this is all very nuanced action and can be blown away at the next session.

However, as with our gold example, no one was looking for a major, long-term reversal at the time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News For Biotech

April 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Good News, If You’re Short

Yesterday, biotech (XBI) had the chance to reverse off Wednesday’s lows, continue higher into an upside move, a Wyckoff spring.

It didn’t happen.

The move failed spectacularly.

The ‘Street’ pays attention to such failed moves. Thus far, unless there’s some kind of massive demand, biotech XBI, has penetrated and tested support, now resistance, and is moving lower.

Strategy First

Recall, the work was done (three weeks ago) indicating high probability of a long-term reversal in this sector.

Adding some entertainment with the Fed is, or the Fed isn’t (going to cut rates). How about the Fed never was. 🙂

Until proven otherwise, we’re in a high, and higher, interest rate environment.

Biotech XBI, 4-Hour

Moving closer-in on the chart, the 4-Hour.

As we can see, on March 21st, XBI had a change of character.

Price action was relatively ordered and well behaved but then became more volatile on the 21st; it all fell apart, declining sharply on April 2nd.

At the point where the ‘change’ is noted, it also looks like XBI, began to form its (current) trading channel.

P&F Projection

If XBI, continues its decline, where’s it going?

What’s a likely target?

There are several methods that can be used; Fibonacci projection, measured move, and P&F to name a few.

A basic P&F projection is shown below:

What’s shown is the maximum projection range (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:52 a.m., EST), XBI continues to grind its way higher in what’s likely a move to test resistance in the 90.50 – 90.60, area.

For the breakdown to be negated, we would need to see a decisive upside penetration of the right-side channel line.

It’s close but so far, price action is within ‘normal’ correction boundaries.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279