Monthly Archives: December 2024

Biotech, Accelerates … Down

December 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Livermore, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

A New Trendline?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s like the Keystone Cops out there.

One side doesn’t think anything bad is going to happen.

The other side, says there’s an implosion coming, if not already here.

Yet another, somewhat honest, saying it doesn’t know but that it will be ‘messy’.

How about we just look at what the market’s actually telling us. That’s a novel idea. 🙂

Iterative Process

As the year comes to a close, it’s (now) obvious, what took place for most of 2024, was a process of iteration.

Working to position for the downside was not the question. Identifying the ‘best opportunity’, was.

Strategy Re-Cap:

Using Livermore’s insight, we assess ‘general conditions’.

With that, came the bearish stance. Then, what tuned out to be an iterative search for (short) opportunities.

That search culminated with trade LABD-24-21, still active (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about two-hours before the close; XBI, has posted a new daily high, and low, threating with ‘outside down’.

We can see the potential ‘channel-within-a-channel’.

The Weeks, Ahead

The coming weeks may hint at what’s likely for the year.

If we don’t get a ‘January effect’ or it gets negated, that in itself gives us a bearish clue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Silver, Below ‘Spot’

December 30, 2024 By in Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s go all the way back (nearly four years ago) to this post, and the following:

“Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.”

Fast forward to now and this link, time stamp: 6:35.

How close is that to the post from way back when?

Strategy, First

The About section presents the priorities of this site.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus; with three market masters, that were masters of each.

The insight, years ago, was that we’re in a situation not unlike that of Genesis 41. It’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

With updates like this just out, it’s becoming clear, food is the focus (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Update

The last update on silver (SLV) was back in early October, link here.

Silver’s down over -16%, since then.

It’s even worse for the bulls, including the Rod Stweart reference:

‘Right now, is where you are … in a broken dream’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Taps The Trend

December 29, 2024 By in CVNA, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter

What Happens Next?

The last update on Carvana, link here, identified the potential for downside reversal.

That’s what we got 🙂

Now, as we’ll see in the chart below, CVNA is right at the trendline.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

We’re at the trend, but there’s a slight possibility price action will rebound (off the trendline) to the area noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s add this insight from Greg Hunter and Ed Dowd, concerning the economy, link here.

After watching the interview, judge for yourself whether or not we have recovery higher first, or we head lower, first.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX or XBI … Which is ‘Right’?

December 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, LABD-24-21, Loeb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Side by Side

Gearald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, said it himself (paraphrasing).

‘If you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you diversify.’

The professionals tend to have highly concentrated positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s look at how two markets have fared during the recent downside reversal.

SOXX & XBI, Daily, Side-by-Side

If you were to position short, which would you choose?

The decline is shown from the exact start-point (Trump ‘bump’) for each market.

Biotech declined -16%, semiconductors, only -10.5%.

More importantly is the rebound (thus far).

Biotech is extremely weak, with only a 23.6% retrace off the lows. Semiconductors have launched all the way back to a 68% retrace.

Why waste time and capital (and increase risk) on a market that’s not moving lower, as quickly as others?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Search For ‘Stop’

December 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI

New Daily Low

With biotech XBI, posting a new daily low, we have a stop for LABD-24-21 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, after attempting to identify several trendlines, it looks like one is (finally) being confirmed.

Objective

Stated in prior updates, this move has the potential of lasting longer than anyone would reasonably expect.

It literally took years, to set-up. However, that’s absolutely no guarantee.

Let’s add to that, forces are at work (think, RFK, Jr. et. al.) that may provide a backdrop for sustained pressure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

As always with the markets, there are simultaneous (up/down) actions.

In one chart, we can see why trading (successfully) is so difficult.

We’re in a (potential) down channel while at the same time, we’re in a spring condition (upward pressure).

From prior analysis at the higher timeframe (weekly), the expectation is for the ‘spring’ action to fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

If it doesn’t, the stop will be hit and the trade exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News Bonds

December 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Dr. Elder, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Stealth Collapse

Does anyone (thinking) think, the debt is going to be repaid?

What does anyone (thinking) think the DOGE Brothers are all about, anyway?

Does anyone (thinking) think RFK-Jr., is after Froot Loops and food coloring?

‘Sleepwalking through the markets’, as Dr. Elder put it, years ago.

The market itself tells us the most likely outcome, the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Right now, bonds (TLT) are telling us, down-pressure (rates up) continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly

Will this time, be like last time?

Moving in closer on the weekly

We’re about thirty minutes from the regular session.

Bonds (TLT), are set to open lower, continuing the downward slide with rates pressuring on higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Charlie Brown Christmas

December 25, 2024 By in Uncategorized

More Relevant Today, Than, Then

Taking a look through the following links is likely to bring back nostalgia and possibly some melancholy.

Even so, A Charlie Brown Christmas, now going on (nearly) sixty-years, nails it.

Let’s start first with, an original band member, link here.

Then, interpretive dance.

Beware, the commercialization. Cutting scenes from Charlie Brown? Something to be proud of, I’m sure.

It almost never happened.

Is it going to be a flop? The Sally Brown ‘hesitation’.

If the mistake wasn’t there, something would be wrong. It’s an integral part.

Sometimes, Charlie Brown does win.

Lastly, the true meaning.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Stalls at Resistance

December 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI

Losing Upside Energy

Today was a shortened trading day, so there may need to be more (resistance) confirmation in the coming sessions.

With that, we can see the biotech index SPBIO, has stalled at resistance.

The chart shows there were five-months of support, broken to the downside, now becoming resistance

Biotech SPBIO, Daily


As stated in the last update, the market itself is not giving indications the current short position, LABD-24-21, requires and exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector (pure) Detail

December 23, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

More Fibonacci Correlations

The sector index SPBIO, is shown in the chart below.

Although there’s no volume data, there isn’t any ‘transaction slippage’, or ‘management fee’ skew errors either.

As of this update (1:03, p.m., EST) the SPBIO (XBI) is trying its best to post a new daily high … attempting to grind its way higher.

For now, it’s not happening.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The channel shown, discussed in this update.

Not presented at that time, the apparent Fibonacci count from the left-most channel contact to the latest daily high contact (Friday).

From a trading perspective, from a position of being short this market (LABD-24-21), there’s no specific indication to exit the position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279