Monthly Archives: July 2025

Financial Sector XLF … Set-Up

July 22, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XLF

In The Pattern

Depending on price action, we’ll get into the long-term view of Finacial Sector XLF, later.

For now, on the hourly timeframe, we’ve seen it before: Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With about forty minutes before the open, it looks as if XLF, will come back up to resistance for a test.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Hourly

Spring and Up-Thrust, are labeled ‘S’ and ‘U’ respectively.

In other markets, the SOXX posted lower overnight; it’s trying its best to rally pre-market, into a higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Top

July 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Last High?

Is the SOXX, calling us to say, ‘this is it?’

Of course, that’s unknown until it’s all over.

What we do know, price action posted a new high as outlined in the last update, link here.

At this point (11:50 a.m., EST), we’ve retreated from that high and are congesting at lower levels. So far, so good, for a short (not advice, not a recommendation).

We also know, shown on the weekly chart, we’re at Fibonacci Week 55, from the all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

The SOXX penetrated highs of July 15th, as forecast.

We’re in Up-Thrust position after having completed a potential spring-to-up-thrust, set-up.

Positioned short, SOXX-25-07, with a very tight stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 20, 2025 By in AEM, CRWD, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Richie Naso

The Agnico ‘Wedge’

Similar to yesterday’s update, showing a wedge pattern for CRWD, we have another (long term) wedge pattern in Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM).

Focusing on ‘strategy’, when market patterns show up, especially in the longer timeframes, we’ll take notice.

Before getting to the chart, here’s a compilation of Richie Naso quotes and insights that have been reviewed over the past week. It’s always good to hear thoughts from a renowned trader.

Richie Naso Quotes

Marathon, link here.

Algorithms ‘Technical Area’, link here.

Short sellers, more highly skilled, link here.

It’s ‘art’, not science, link here.

Agnico Eagle Mines AEM, Monthly

Taking eighteen years to form a wedge, suggests that whatever happens to AEM, is likely to happen in a big way (not advice, not a recommendation).

Agnico’s weighted as No. 2, (just barely) in Senior Miners Index (ETF) GDX; No. 1 spot, going to Newmont, NEM.

Newmont is scheduled to release earnings this coming Thursday, after-hours.

Unlike, Agnico, Newmont’s is well off its all-time highs, already posted an up-thrust, now coming back to test.

It could get interesting on Thursday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike ‘Wedge’

July 19, 2025 By in CRWD 3 Comments

Back Into The Pattern

The insert at left, shows CrowdStrike (CRWD), on a monthly scale.

The month of June posted a ‘throw-over’ out of the terminating wedge pattern.

The month of July (so far) has posted a return back into that pattern.

The coming week may see an attempt to rally. If so and depending on price action, the risk on a short position may be reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, One More High?

July 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 3 Comments

At The Extreme

If the SOXX, continues to pressure the resistance area noted below, there’s a possibility for another new high (not advice, not a recommendation).

As yesterday’s post said, the objective is (for trading actions) to be directed by the market itself.

At this point, the SOXX is not going down, but not materially up, either.

However, we do have a minor spring set-up on the hourly shown below, suggesting the probability for another high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Short position, SOXX-25-05, exited and on the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

BAC … Fits The ‘Pattern’

July 17, 2025 By in BAC, BAC-25-02, Dr. Elder, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Dr. Elder … ‘Actions Should Be Automatic’

As implied by Dr. Alexander Elder, years ago, when a trading professional sees a particular set-up, the ‘actions should be (somewhat) automatic’.

Looking at the set-up of Bank of America (BAC), what’s the trading action?

We have the repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust, labeled as ‘S‘, and ‘U‘.

Price action retreated from the top (blue line) resistance area, and has now come up for a test.

Bank of America BAC, Weekly

Coming back up for a test, reduces risk.

Positioned short this equity, as BAC-25-02, with initial stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First Semis, … Now, Biotech

July 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Next Set-Up

With the SOXX, reversal apparently at hand, (SOXX-25-05, active), we can continue to the next potential set-up.

As a reminder, this site’s focused on ‘strategy’ first; what’s likely to happen in a big way. Then, tactics, and after that, focus.

Moving on, we have this post from nearly two months ago; forecasting potential price action for biotech, XBI.

Clicking on the link above, reviewing the chart, let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

We’re close to the target and potential stops.

Pushing above resistance, does not guarantee a reversal.

It only means there’s likely to be instability; reading that price action, if/when it happens, will help determine the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia, Down Early Session

July 14, 2025 By in DAL, DAL-25-02, NVDA, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, WMT, WMT-25-04

Fibonacci Week 144, Holding … For Now

It’s early in the session; NVDA, has posted a new daily low, adding weight to potential reversal, at Week 144.

The SOXX, also printed a new daily low.

Repositioned short (again), with stop to be the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Other Markets

DAL-25-02, printed a new daily high (exit signal). Trade closed at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

WMT-25-04, stop, moved down to 95.54 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

Silver’s Breakout

There’s been plenty of coverage over the past week, about silver’s apparent ‘breakout’.

We may have a sustainable breakout, or there may be something else in the works.

As of this post, silver futures opened essentially unchanged, edging slightly higher (as of 7:04 p.m., EST).

With that said, we’ll look at the longer-term view of silver and specifically, the ETF tracking fund, SLV.

Silver SLV, Weekly

The smaller (magenta) wedge pattern at left of the chart, shows a sustained breakout.

That move culminated in the blow-off top, late April 2011.

From the initiation of the breakout (week of 8/27/10), to the first retrace was a Fibonacci 8-Weeks of higher highs, and higher closes.

There was a small amount of congestion for one month, in January 2011. Then, SLV continued on higher.

On a monthly scale, silver SLV, essentially went straight up for a Fibonacci 8-months with only one month lower, a total duration of 9-months.

You can almost see where this is going.

With the current ‘breakout’ (if we’re in one), the market may post an impulsive move, or alternate (from the prior wedge breakout) with some kind of choppy action.

As the chart implies, we’re at The Danger Point®, where price action’s hovering between a wedge pattern breakout, or throw-over.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279