What’s Next?
With only 265 views as of this post, you would expect news like this to be everywhere.
Not willing to take a data point of only one, putting in the question of TLT short interest, yields this, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Bear Market Bounces
Home builders, and home improvement stores (HD, LOW), were up across the board on a policy announcement to support the housing sector.
Of the top three (market cap) builders, DHI, LEN, PHM, Lennar (LEN) has the weakest price action as we’ll see below.
On this site, we’re interested first, in the strategic position of the market; then, second, the tactical opportunity for a directional move.
Thirdly, is the focus part. There’s no ‘diversification’ but a zeroing into what price action says maybe the best opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).
Strategic Position
The ‘Residential Construction’ sector topped-out way back in October, of 2024.
As of Friday’s close, even ending the week +10.2% higher, it’s still down (from all-time highs) -18.29%
Lennar Corp LEN, Quarterly
Looking at the long-term view.
The chart says it all.
Lennar looks ready for ‘implosion’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Market Masters
Words of wisdom about ‘re-inventing’ oneself.
From Market Master, Tom Hougaard, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Waiting for Probabilities
Looking back through historical data, downward thrust energy for AutoZone this past December 9th, was possibly the largest, ever.
In the case of DoorDash, here, we know for sure, downward thrust energy (November 6th), was the largest ever.
Spotify is also in the ‘largest-ever‘ camp with its record breaking downward thrust energy; posted back on July 29th, last year.
AutoZone AZO, Daily
One might think, it’s not possible for AZO to get back to the wide high-volume bar (not advice, not a recommendation).
Taking a look at DASH, show us, it’s indeed possible.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Well, Not Really
It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.
FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.
Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.
Original website, link here.
Paraphrasing from that link:
‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’
We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?
Well, some sectors are already rolling over.
The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.
Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly
During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.
The monthly chart shows the potential.
At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Volume Clues
First time coverage on resistance and (potential) downside reversal on DASH, was here.
At this juncture, DASH gives us a volume clue.
Bert Dohmen commented in recent interviews, that ‘no one looks at volume’.
He (Dohmen) thinks it’s important as did Wyckoff and David Weis; covered on this DVD.
Today’s action stalled at resistance (blue line).
Volume compared to the prior session, contracted by -32.61%, or –33%.
We can see, there’s not a lot of distance to confirm a reversal (down) or continuation to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Watch for The Close
Tesla struggled above resistance, near all-time highs for nine trading days, before reversing lower.
Now, as shown, it’s posted a new daily low … below established support.
Watch price action into the close for a rally attempt; if it happens, risk is narrowed on a short trade, i.e., today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Separately, Uber trade UBER-26-01, was closed out in the pre-market at break-even, before launching higher in the regular session (not advice, not a recommendation)
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
then
False Breakout?
The chart of Uber is similar to biotech XBI, from last year, link here.
Back then, it looked like there was a breakout from a trading channel.
That update said:
“If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.”
That’s what happened. Biotech collapsed in to the ‘Tariff’ meltdown.
Is that where we are now, with UBER? (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
DoorDash, Tracks Klarna
Buy Now, Pay Later, Klarna (KLAR) went public last September 10th.
It’s been (almost) non-stop downhill, from there.
From the IPO, KLAR is now down -37.65%.
Looking at DASH during the same time-period, shows near one-to-one correlation (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
‘Normal’ Market Behavior
The last update on CrowdStrike, was here.
Now that we got the break, the question for the next few trading sessions, is whether or not we’ll have a test (not advice not a recommendation).
Mentor Moment
Mark Douglas discusses changing one’s expectations to align with the market, link here.
With that in mind, here’s how Goldman Sachs plans to align themselves with the market, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
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