Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Airlines, Wedge Breakdown

February 13, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-01, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Positions, Semiconductors, UAL Tags:

One of The First Sectors To Go

If we’re heading for a recession as Ed Dowd suggests, link here, airlines (and semiconductors) are typically one of the first sectors to turn lower.

Taking that interview, in full along with Greg Hunter’s next one, link here, the overall situation is sobering.

With that, let’s look at the airlines.

Airline Sector, Weekly

Terminating wedge has broken to the downside.

The prior channel in green is shown to present, channels for this sector have happened previously.

Currently short DAL and UAL (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Bull/Bear Struggle

February 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-06, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Pattern Repeats

Time for the ‘bag-holder’, shakedown?

One thing that can be said, big-cap Nvidia, is posting a repeating pattern:

Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As long as NVDA, closes lower for the day, it’s at risk of downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The repeating set-up is labeled: No. 1. (spring) and No. 2. (up-thrust).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We still have the ‘break-away’ gap posted on January 27th (not labeled), creating the unknown; will this gap be filled?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, What Could Go Wrong?

February 11, 2025 By in CVNA, ZeroHedge

How About That P/E, ‘only’ 32,000 !!!

A ‘Supernova’ P/E.

Will it blow up?

If so, when?

Earnings release, scheduled for the 19th (after-hours), link here.

Possible Outcome(s)

Here’s a hint of what’s likely to happen, link here and here.

So, one month after the election (and now that all is well) the ‘consumer’ is back at it; profligate spending.

The spending ‘surge’ may have spilled over into the auto sector; possible result, positive earnings for CVNA (not advice, not a recommendation).

You can almost see where this is going.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Carvana has just posted a new daily high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats (again)

February 10, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, FAZ, FAZ-25-01, Financial Sector, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XLF

Another (repeating) Set-Up

This time, it’s the financial sector, XLF.

Top ten components for XLF, are listed here.

For today’s session (as of 12:27 p.m., EST), all but one of the ten are trading lower.

Financial, XLF, Daily

When looking at the chart, the set-up is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

Similar to yesterday’s update with ProLogis, XLF, made two attempts to push past resistance … that so far have failed.

Today’s action has ‘ease of movement’ to the downside.

The sidebar notes and open (short) position in XLF, as FAZ-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately:

The short in IYR, via DRV, was closed early in this session as PLD, made a (very slight) new daily high, indicating possible hesitation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)..

It may still work out but the market that’s moving to the downside now, is XLF (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Big-Cap, ProLogis … Reversal

February 9, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, TLT, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Evidence of a Struggle

Insight from the masters, Wyckoff and Weis.

When at a (significant) trend reversal, we want to see ‘evidence of a struggle’.

Looking at ProLogis PLD (largest Cap and weight, in IYR), that’s exactly what we see.

Exhaustion and (potential) reversal.

ProLogis PLD, Daily

Between the two blue lines is a resistance zone.

Note how each subsequent day (after the magenta arrow) is losing energy … or is a series of energy losses.

With prior updates here, and here, probabilities suggest continued (PLD, IYR) downside or possible sideways action (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Analysis is ‘Wrong’

February 8, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-25-01, DRV-25-04, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff Tags: ,

‘In Slow’ … ‘Out Fast’ (Dr. Elder)

The last update on ProLogis, PLD, proved to be (somewhat) incorrect.

There was no definitive assessment on direction, but from the sidebar, one could see an open short position in sector index IYR, as DRV-25-01.

That short was closed nearly immediately at the next session as PLD, ratcheted higher along with IYR.

Since we’re at ‘-04’, increment on DRV, there have been four attempts to position short with DRV-25-04, currently open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain/loss (all positions) is near break-even, at -0.38%

All of which brings us to ProLogis … again.

ProLogis, PLD, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

The last earnings release for PLD, resulted in a wide bar on heavy volume.

Nearly instantly, and from a Wyckoff standpoint, we should know what that means … or what is probable:

The wide bar, volume, are likely to be ‘tested’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next update, we’ll discuss the Up-Thrust (reversal) condition for PLD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First, Real Estate … Now, Bonds

February 7, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Rates, Back on The Rise

Yesterday, was the reversal set-up for real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it’s bonds

The bond chart below shows TLT, in a near-perfect trading channel.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

In addition to the channel, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation.

Or course, this could be the week (or next) where bonds break out to the upside.

Anything can happen.

For now, price action remains in the down-channel.

The next item shows we’re potentially at some kind of transition point.

Retail, ‘All-In’

Behind the scenes, reports like this, tell us the ‘retail investor’, i.e., the least informed and least disciplined participant is literally, ‘all-in’ the market.

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Reversing Now

February 6, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

If The High (for the day) Holds

For those monitoring this site on a daily basis, it’s at the point where you know (or almost know) what’s coming next.

Over several years, the set-ups have been clearly laid out.

One in particular, the basis for most of the trades, is this: link here.

With that in mind, we have real estate, IYR.

The last update hinted that a reversal may be ‘imminent’.

Well, it’s been several weeks. So far, nothing … until today.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The set-up (Spring-to-Up-Thrust) is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘risk’ on a short position is the high for the day.

At the time the screen shot was taken, that ‘risk’ amounted to 0.64-pts.

It’s not a contest to ‘be right’. It’s an effort to ‘minimize risk’.

Positioned short via DRV, as DRV-25-04, stop at session low, 26.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:27 a.m., EST) IYR, is starting the retrace some of the early session downside.

It could be a quick day-trade exit if the stop is hit; we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow 30 … Near All-Time-Highs

February 5, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DXD, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Then What?

Dow 30, is just shy of all-time highs.

As of the close today and using ETF DIA, as the proxy, we’re just 2.88-pts away from the mark.

Sounds like all is well; that is, until you look at the chart.

Dow Jones 30, DIA, Daily

Recall, markets tend to post repeating patterns, link here.

If there’s to be a (significant) reversal, the market itself is likely to give us clues.

Clues such as narrow ranges with high volume at resistance or just above.

On the sidelines until then.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Navigating The A.I., Minefield

February 4, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Nissam Taleb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Usual Suspects

One Trade, At A Time

Even if we knew the A.I. bubble has burst, that it’s beginning a multi-year decline (or something worse), even if it was known, trading bubbles like this, is not easy (not advice, not a recommendation).

It might be simple, but it’s not easy.

With the market in chaos, we have the usual suspects out making things complicated; sharpening their pencils, attempting to connect financials with price action.

It always looks good on the surface.

However, as Nissam Talib said in The Black Swan (paraphrasing), he’d rather have a New York street smart, hoodlum reaping a windfall, than a pointy-headed PhD on the sidelines, pontificating about how the strategy’s not consistent with mathematics.

All of which brings us to the truth, price action itself.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Once again, the trendline has been adjusted based on price action.

The gap lower open from yesterday has been effectively closed during this session (as of 1:50 p.m., EST).

The expectation is for today’s high in the SOXX to hold; meaning, subsequent sessions will not post higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

For a short position, SOXX high of 217.27 (or the high for the day) is a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279