Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Trump’s ‘Not Looking’

March 7, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-04, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

Not Political … Just Fact

The last time we had a sustained multi-year meltdown (’07 – ’08), there was a ‘ban’ on short selling.

Since Trump is ‘strictly business’, will he try (or instruct the SEC) to save the market?

Based on this link, maybe not (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s true and there are no ‘saves’ this time around, then we’re in uncharted territory; at least since the ’87 crash.

Gold Miners ‘Bid’?

The rest of the market’s breaking down, but the miners are holding steady (sort-of). They look like there’re headed for at least one more push higher.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

We’re including the MACD, to show if there’s a new high above the 53.00 – level, it sets-up a (potential) bearish MACD divergence.

This coming Tuesday, is Fibonacci Day 8, from the February 28th lows.

Positioning

The short trade JDST-25-04, was stopped out early in the session. No other shorts are planned for this sector … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade in biotech XBI, remains active as LABD-25-02, with stop at LABD 7.44 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Hang In Thin Air

March 6, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-03, Positions, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Push Above Resistance … Then Stop

As of this post (12:35 p.m., EST), the miners GDXJ, have pushed above resistance area noted in yesterday’s update

Then, they stalled.

With a backdrop of gold in the news incessantly, is there a short trade at this juncture?

Whether or not this is the place to make the bet remains to be seen. However, what we can see, is a push above resistance (Wyckoff Up-Thrust) and a narrow range bar.

That means short-side risk has been reduced (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Short initiated via JDST, as JDST-25-03, with stop at the session low, currently JDST 19.93 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Looks Ready … For Lower

March 5, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDXJ, JDST, JDST-25-02, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

Breaking Down … Finally?

You have to wonder, is the curtain ever going to be pulled back on biotech?

If we use the empirical trading adage, ‘When price goes south, bad news comes out’, we may be getting close.

Biotech XBI, has gone sideways for months; oscillating in a trading range; that is, until now.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Two charts are presented. The first is a compressed view of the daily action, showing the trading channel.

The second is a closer look, with potential down-trending channel.

The two magenta lines correspond to the blue lines in the first chart.

Note how XBI, penetrated support and by definition, entered a Wyckoff ‘spring’ condition.

The market response was to initiate a rally but today, that rally appears to be failing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

First, some housekeeping.

Short trade on miners GDXJ, JDST-25-02, was closed at about break-even.

As of this post (11:48 a.m., EST) GDXJ, is just penetrating resistance at 51 to 51.5 … a potential up-thrust set-up.

Now, on to biotech

Short trade initiated in biotech via LABD, labeled as LABD-25-02, with stop at the LABD session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s (terminating) Wedge

March 4, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Inflation, SLV

At The End of The Move

A ‘terminating’ wedge, typically comes at the end of a move whether up or down.

In the case of silver (SLV), that wedge has formed during an up move, giving us a hint, the next significant direction may be down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of the hyperinflation breakout hysteria; remember that?

An entire series of posts was created on silver SLV, to show that for one, it’s not in a hyperinflation breakout, and two, historic price action suggests SLV projects to either a downside reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

In about one year, SLV moved from $24.49, to yesterday’s $28.75; hardly a launch to $100/oz. – $500/oz., or more.

The Caveat

An SLV, post above last week’s high of 29.61, is a potential negation of the above analysis.

With that said, the wedge appears to be in-effect for now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Reduce (short) Risk

March 3, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-02, Positions, Wyckoff

Less, Does Not Mean, None

When you’re at price extremes whether up or down, many times the ultimate direction is unknown.

You’ll know when you’re at that (on-the-edge) spot, if it’s like Wyckoff’s description from over a century ago:

‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’

The good part, today’s potential-now-actual scenario, was previously covered in this update:

“What we’re looking for in the coming week (best case) is to see continued GDXJ, upside to close the distance to the resistance area; thus reduce (but not eliminate) the risk.”

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

Actually, the risk is probably less than the 0.82-pts shown.

Price action would need to continue through resistance (blue line) to get to the stop; possibly giving ample time to exit a short if so positioned (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can be seen in the side-bar, a short has already been opened; executed early in the session using leveraged inverse fund JDST.

Trade: JDST-25-02, with stop at today’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Against The ‘Spin’

Positioning short is against the current mainstream ‘spin’ on why this sector has not launched higher.

You’ve heard it before, they call it a ‘buying opportunity’

This site refers to the non-confirmation of the miners (with gold at all-time highs) as “something wrong” 🙂

We’ll know soon enough.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Whacked, Punch Drunk

March 2, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg

Reeling From The Hit

February 19th, after hours action, Carvana posted 310 as the high; then, three days later, the lows at 207.85:

That’s a direct hit of -33%

Then, incredibly, short interest does not increase but decreases (from just over 10%) to 7.8%; you can’t make this up.

Emotionally Exhausted:

If you’d been short this (vending machine) ‘disruptor’ for nigh on two years, as it rachets ever higher, and then it finally, breaks down … what would you do?

You’d probably be emotionally (maybe financially) exhausted, tired of watching the never-ending grind higher and cover (whatever’s left of) your shorts.

Wheels Off

As Hindenburg reports, Carvana has some interesting ‘fundamentals’.

With that, let’s look at the most likely area for a possible punch-drunk recovery top, and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The price bar with the heaviest volume was the day after the earnings release as shown.

That bar’s close is right around the 50% retrace.

However, if we extend the top of the retrace tool to start at the after-hours 310, mark (and not regular session high of 292.84), the 50% retrace now becomes the 38.2%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Something’s Wrong

March 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, Positions 1 Comment

Gold To New Highs … Miners, Not

Gold continues to new all-time highs while miners post lower highs.

Something’s Wrong

It’s as if each new gold (GLD) high gives the excuse to take profits on GDX, GDXJ, or go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, with gold at (or near) new highs, Junior Miners GDXJ, have attempted to breakout above resistance twice, and so far, have failed.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

The last update on GDXJ was off by a single day.

The next day, one more new daily high before reversal; short trade JDST-25-01, was closed early in that session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Note the tight price action just above resistance in the ‘2nd Attempt’; evidence of a struggle.

What we’re looking for in the coming week (best case) is to see continued GDXJ, upside to close the distance to the resistance area; thus reduce (but not eliminate) the risk.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Support The SOXX, or Not

February 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Holding Below Support

Holding on for its life, just below support.

That’s the current condition (as of 12:23 p.m., EST) of the SOXX.

When we look at the chart, penetration of a three-month support area is clear.

By definition, when support is penetrated, it puts the market in Wyckoff Spring condition; there will (typically) be some kind of attempt to rally.

That’s where we are now.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note the black dashed trendline.

Research done on bubbles past, link here postulated at the break, the multi-year down leg begins (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the SOXX broke the trendline, it spent an incredible 10-weeks testing that break before reversing lower.

Positioning

From a price action standpoint, there’s nothing (yet) that says to exit a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stated above, SOXX is technically in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

With that in mind, the stop for SOXS-25-09, has or will be moved up to the session low; currently at SOXS 22.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 1:39 p.m., EST: Price action expected to continue unabated (downward) after the first half of the session, now showing some buoyancy: Discretionary exit of SOXS-25-09, profit +14.2%

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !

February 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Well, That’s It

At the open, Nvidia came within 1-point of the target (61.8%), shown in the last update.

Then, it posted an outside-down bar within the first 25-minutes.

At this point (as of 11:28 a.m., EST), since yesterday’s low was penetrated, that puts NVDA, in a minor Wyckoff Spring condition, retracing some of the early session down move.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The chart has been compressed, showing events appear to be taking place on a massive scale.

If the trading channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), look how far down we have to go for the ‘demand’ side.

The press and pundits are either not ready for such a move or are deflecting from actual events, links here and here.

Looks like ‘good enough’ didn’t last long:

At the open, NVDA down, immediately.

Positioning

With all the coverage put on this equity and sector, ETF, the SOXX, trading actions are matter of fact.

The sidebar shows another short via SOXS, opened early in the session. Trade is SOXS-25-09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Eyes on Nvidia

February 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Rally Into Earnings, (maybe) Good For Shorts

Yesterday’s post said to “expect a test of … support.”

That’s what we got.

Price action sliced through support levels for Nvidia and then rallied into the close.

This morning’s action continued that rally.

Short position SOXS-25-08, was exited early in the session (when SOXX, daily high exceeded yesterday’s high) with profit at +19.4% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Today, is Fibonacci ‘Day 34’, from the all-time highs.

Tomorrow, is Day 8, from the 2/18/25, pivot high.

Earnings are scheduled for release at 4:20 p.m., and conference call at 5:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279