Author Archives: thedangerpoint

The SOXX … Day 55 (+2)

July 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX 1 Comment

Margin of Error

If you’re upside down in a diving stall, shown here, there’s no margin for error or you’re dead; literally.

The big problem for engineers, it doesn’t work that way in the markets.

Two days after this post, we have a potential reversal in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the engineers have long since left the room as there was an ‘error.’; not getting the (potential) reversal exactly right.

If the AI mania is over, that update two days ago was off by two-days; the biggest bubble in world history … at least since the South Sea Bubble.

So, let’s move on to the chart.

Before we get started, also note, Nvidia has not made a new (all-time) high. This update identified that reversal correctly (so far).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

As of 11:05 a.m., EST, the SOXX has posted out-side-down.

When Fibonacci counts get longer, there is more room to be off by a few days.

If this is the reversal for the SOXX, a two-day margin is fully acceptable (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX … Day ’55’

July 9, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

New Highs & Fibonacci

Analysis of Nivida has already shown, the leader of the semis’ being influenced by Fibonacci, link here.

Now, we have the SOXX about to open at or near new highs.

What you likely won’t find anywhere else, insight that today, is Fibonacci Day ’55’, from the April 19th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation)

New highs, Day 55, daily and weekly MACD bearish divergences, potential up-thrust; ‘You make the call.’

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Pre-market action: Currently (as of 8:42 a.m., EST), trading at 260.40-ish, right at the last top high, 260.65.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII … Plus

July 7, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

The Dash For Cash

Everyone’s scrambling for cash … but it’s ‘fiat cash’, they want.

Debts are paid with fiat cash. Food is bought with fiat cash. The local coin shop or pawn shop runs on fiat cash.

Or to be more accurate these days, ‘credit’ or ‘debit’ fiat cash.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Before getting to the chart (below), let’s go back to the ‘squeeze’, February of ’21; labeled as ‘Remember This?’

Back then it was hysteria just like now.

If you remember, the little guy was going to ‘put it to da man’; force their hand to admit there wasn’t enough physical to cover demand, yada, yada, on it went.

So, what really happened?

Well, the SLV ETF, (proposed or) changed its rules of silver allocation, that’s what happened. 🙂

Sorry Charlie, no silver squeeze this time.

These two posts covered the crowd delusion (and price action) fairly well; links here and here.

Is this time any different? Let’s go to the chart.

Silver SLV, Weekly

A prior update, link here, said that silver SLV, was at, or near a measured move target.

Still true; however, it didn’t make it there exactly. So, technically speaking, the target’s still in play.

Probably more important, is what we have now.

At the right side, we can see SLV, price (net) distance traveled is becoming shorter.

While that’s happening, commitment to that move, Force Index, is now bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Industrial Metal

While the kabuki theater known as rabid silver and gold bulls, continue to run amok, we have more and more evidence the economy is in full-blown decline.

By this time, referencing ‘official’ statistics, needs to be considered a ‘blue pill‘ move. It’s not reality.

So, here are just a few links, boots on the ground truth; here, here and here.

Half of silver produced is used in industry.

If the economy (industry) is contracting, would not silver do the same?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CORN … At Lows, Stops Dead

July 6, 2024 By in Corn, David Weis, Derecho, ice-age-farmer, Wyckoff

Penetrates & Holds Below Support

Penetrating and holding just below support, we know what that means.

CORN is at The Danger Point®, in spring position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart below covers over four-years of price action; within that, we have at least three technical items to cover.

Somebody Always ‘Knows’

First, how does volume in CORN, go from basically nothing, to increasing over 400%, six weeks before, the perfectly timed and positioned (in the corn belt), ‘Derecho‘.

That location is identified as ‘What’s This?’

As Wyckoff said a century ago: ‘Somebody always knows something and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape’.

CORN Fibonacci, 8-Day

Second, is the successive decrease in downward thrust over the past three-years; at this point, nobody’s watching.

All of that brings us to the third technical point.

CORN has retraced to support (blue line) which just happens to be a Fibonacci 61.8%, level; penetrates that support and so far, has stopped dead.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Still The Leader?

July 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-10, SOXX

Setting The (Reversal) Hook

Nvidia just posted an Up-Thrust, reversal on the daily.

The rest of the SOXX, whistles past the graveyard.

If one looks only at the SOXX, everything seems to be ok; it’s recovering (sort-of).

However, leader NVDA, may be at The Danger Point®, ready to head lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’ve just had an a-b-c correction from the June 24th lows.

That correction posted a Wyckoff Up-Thrust with yesterday’s penetration of resistance (blue line) and today’s reversal.

Note: Both upward moves (wave ‘a’, wave ‘c’) are of equal length but are divergent in thrust energy.

We’re at the point where anything can happen.

However, this is the place where risk for being wrong on a short position, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds: Break Up, or Break Down?

July 5, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT

Into The Wedge

Bonds are in a ‘terminating wedge’.

So, what comes first? The market implodes with bonds (likely) moving higher?

Or … bonds break lower, icing on the cake for rate-hikes, then move higher as the market tanks … Or, behind door Number Three, they both melt down, together.

The least likely event is that nothing happens (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on to the chart.

Bonds TLT, Monthly

As shown, the 40-year bond bull market ended during March of 2020.

That was the week of Friday 13th … you can’t make this stuff up (it’s all about the numbers).

One item above, favoring the downside more than up, the last major thrust was ‘downside pressure’.

That thrust has not yet been confirmed with more downside or negated with an upside breakout.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The ‘Clubhouse Turn’

July 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-13, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Testing Complete … ?

Is biotech (finally) coming around the Clubhouse turn?

Has it finished its two-months of (upward) testing and ready to reverse lower?

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open; pre-market action is posting a tight range (magenta arrow), shown on the inverted chart.

Biotech XBI, Daily (Inverted)

For the beginnings of a ‘confirmation’, we’ll need to see a new daily high (new low, non-inverted).

From a Wyckoff standpoint, note the net distance traveled has become shorter and shorter.

A potential reversal may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Another Set-Up

June 30, 2024 By in Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Watch For The ‘Bounce’

Nat-Gas, UNG, is at support right now.

So, what happens next?

Before we get to that, let’s first be aware of what’s being presented to the public. This recent link, says that upon increase in production, ‘go short’ (absolutely, definitely, not advice, not a recommendation).

So, the advice is, somehow tie the fundamentals to a trading action?

Given that going short on increase of production would even work (I wouldn’t do it), how is anyone going to figure out whether those numbers are real?

So, we choose not to play the game and instead, go straight to the truth, price action.

Nat-Gas UNG, Daily

First, it’s important to note the ‘Risk At A Low’, area.

That’s the location of this update.

With price action now at support, anything can happen.

There could be an immediate bounce, downside penetration, or some combination.

Note that Force Index (purple rectangle), shows action as ‘well behaved’.

That is, there’s no apparent craziness as was seen to the far left of the chart with wide swings in Force Index.

If UNG, does bounce higher from here, it increases the importance of the support level.

That, in turn, gives us a ‘heads up’; keep watching for a subsequent downside penetration and possible Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CORN Collapse

June 29, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Natural Gas, SPBIO, Teucrium, UNG, Wyckoff, XBI

Another Nat-Gas Scenario?

The beginning of a bullish set-up?

The financial press says the wipeout in corn, is because of oversupply.

That, may or may not, be true.

Since Wyckoff analysis doesn’t care about the press, we’ll use it to discern the (potential) truth.

Let’s see how it did in the recent past. The Nat-Gas (UNG) low, was identified to-the-day, link here.

From that post, was this:

“Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market. Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low … “

So, it was. Afterwards, UNG bounced near, but never touched that low.

Twelve trading days later (Fibonacci 13 days, from low), it reversed decisively to the upside.

The Same, But Not

On the medium, to long-term, CORN action is the same as biotech (XBI), but opposite.

Instead of an up-thrust two-years in the making, we may have a spring set-up, taking just as long if not longer.

Where’s The ‘Potato’?

So, where’s the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘?

It’s possible, mishaps could be on the upside instead of down. It worked last time; here and here.

That ‘event’ went straight across the most-dense areas of the corn belt.

All of which, brings us to the chart.

Teucrium CORN Fund, Weekly

We’re in spring position now (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, shown on the chart is a potential low at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace.

The financial press article in the very first link (above) does have some useful information.

That is, ‘spec’ traders are adding to short positions.

‘Spec’ traders are the least informed.

It’s the ‘commercials’, professionals working the industry that are most informed.

Monitoring what they (the commercials) are doing is the potential key to the next likely direction for CORN (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nivida Blow-Off Top?

June 27, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Supplementary Data, Independant Source

Before we get to the ‘independent source’, a quick review of the June 21st, update (emphasis added):

“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

That was based on a wide gamut of data with none of it, ‘fundamentals’, except ‘the money’s gone’; the conclusion, NVDA, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of that, on this site, right here in River City. 🙂

Independant Source

Now, we have this from Ed Dowd, link here (time stamp: 5:45, 8:30, and 9:40) saying NVDA, had an ‘exhaustion top’, posting on two timeframes.

Note: Wyckoff analysis, with its century-old technique, is coming to the same conclusions as the Wall Street ‘number crunchers’ with near-infinite computing power.

Now, on to the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The trading channel (blue lines) is potential only, not confirmed.

What we do have, is once again, NVDA being influenced by Fibonacci time-correlation(s).

Nvidia reversed on Fibonacci Week 89, from the October 14th, 2022, lows.

Now, its adhering (so far), to daily Fibonacci.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279