Category Archives: Biotech

Biotech … Upside Breakout or Not

October 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

At The Channel Line, Bullish Divergence

Looking at the tape, we’re at a confluence.

Today’s price action is near the right-side channel line and downside energy (RSI) has a bullish divergence as shown.

What happens at the next session may result in maintaining the trade (LABD-23-11) or getting stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, the overall trend is down and the bullish set-up shown below, can sometimes get overpowered to the downside.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily

The short position via LABD, has a tentative stop in the vicinity of LABD 22.01, but this is not a hard stop (yet).

Hard Stop is still set @ LABD 20.54 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next Session

The ideal situation for the LABD-23-11, short, is a higher open for LABD, and a higher daily high.

If price action performs otherwise, it’s possible I will take a discretionary exit on the position and go to the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Free-Fall’, For Biotech … Closer

October 12, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Downside Pressure Builds

With this session’s price action continuing lower, getting back into the short trade (via LABD) was the correct move (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’re nearing the dangerous part.

Downside pressure continues to build.

As the chart shows, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is close to the point where there’s no more support until much lower levels.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily

The Blue arrows highlight short entries (via LABD).

Short No. 1 was subsequently stopped out yesterday, then re-established (the same day) at the next arrow, No. 2.

If and when price action gets to the ‘free-fall’ area, anything can happen.

We could bounce off the support level, hover at it, or slice straight through.

Positioning

It’s obvious this sector’s in trouble. The fundamentals continue to build.

Just a few days after this post we have two more to add to ‘The List’, here and here.

Yesterday’s post showed a not-so-good entry that at this point in today’s session, has been ‘healed’ by price action.

We’re well above that (LABD 21.69) entry and solidly in the green (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on the LABD-23-11, position is now being moved (tentatively) higher at today’s low of, LABD 22.01.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Back In The Saddle … Biotech

October 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

The ‘Perfection’ Mind-Trap

‘Once stopped out, the amateur will never re-enter the trade.’

That’s Dr. Alexander Elder, stating a typical psychological barrier for the new trader.

As if by design, as soon as the short trade LABD-23-10, was named, it was stopped out early this session.

About thirty minutes after the open, price action reversed its early session direction and re-confirmed the original bearish assessment of the sector.

Naming The Trade

From a personal standpoint, the psychological barrier of never getting back in a trade once stopped out, was addressed years ago.

It’s frustrating, but what’s worse, is watching one’s original premise turn into a ten-bagger and not being along for the ride.

With that said, the short in biotech has been re-established via LABD, at a far-from-perfect entry of 21.69, and a not-so good stop of 20.54 (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll name this one at the outset as LABD-23-11

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Update

October 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Behind The Scenes, Biotech Verifies Trend

Hardly a day goes by where we don’t get some kind of biotech ‘conspiracy’ or exposé like this, this, this, or this.

True or not, from a trading standpoint, we’re interested in reality.

So far, that reality, i.e., the price action, says that out of all the major sectors (except bonds, perhaps), biotech, and specifically, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is the weakest (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Trade With No Name

Since the existing short on biotech via LABD is solidly in the green (original entry @ 16.99), it’s going to be tracked on this site as LABD-23-10, indicating the tenth series (trade campaign) this year.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

The first chart shows the original entry (documented here and here) and the stop progression.

The second chart shows that we’re in a trading channel, confirmed with today’s higher (daily) high, with SPBIO, lower.

During this session, the stop has been tightened up to LABD 20.74 (Friday’s low).

With that, it could all be over soon, i.e., getting stopped out; or, it’s just a continuing series of well-disciplined progressions protecting open profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector, Buckles

September 28, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The List, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Bad, And More Bad News

It’s been a little nerve-wracking over the past two sessions being short biotech; was it an upward correction, or a full-blown reversal?

No one really knows, until it’s over.

Well, as of today’s new daily low in index SPBIO, it looks like what is now seen as a correction, may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Bad, And More Bad

On the fundamental side, The List keeps building with links like this, this and this.

However, keep in mind, it may be something as simple as rising interest rates that’s ultimately going to collapse biotech and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on and looking at the chart of SPBIO, there’s a trend confirmation and potential trading channel.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The left side line is the trend … the right-side line is what’s called the ‘reverse trendline’ and possibly defines the trading channel.

As of this post (12:30 p.m., EST) the SPBIO, is doing all it can to reverse higher, against what may be the over-riding (down) trend.

So far, the daily high of SPBIO 5764.73, remains intact.

Positioning

As a result of today’s new SPBIO low, the stop has been moved on the position in the inverse fund LABD, from LABD 18.22, to LABD 19.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘No Pivot’, Black Swan

September 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, Nissam Taleb, Positions, SPBIO, Van Metre 1 Comment

Then, There’s Biotech

Back in January, this post was contrary to the accepted (and still accepted) theory, there’ll be a Fed ‘pivot’ when the economy turns south.

‘Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.’

We went south a long time ago and not only is there no pivot, rates are most likely going higher still (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Process Of Iteration

Those accessing this site for any length of time, have seen my trading actions going through a process of iteration in real-time.

Those actions have effectively searched (and profited) from moves, but more importantly, are looking for the market that stands to decline the farthest and fastest.

At this juncture, that market could be biotech and specifically, the SPBIO, index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

Depending on if, when, and where the neckline is broken, we have an approximate location for a measured move.

Head & Shoulders patterns, while being high probability, can be subject to failure.

One of the most famous of these in recent memory, was the S&P Head and Shoulders of late 2002.

It was an easily recognizable pattern that failed … only later to find out, the market had been manipulated higher by an entity (buying futures contracts) that had ‘unlimited capital’.

Positioning

As this post detailed, the main position going short the index (via LABD) has already been opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

There have been other additions, but they are nowhere near the size of the original entry.

Hard Stop has been moved up from LABD 17.59 to LABD 18.22 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Highly Leveraged, LABD

There’s no guarantee, 3X Leveraged Inverse fund LABD, will be maintained throughout a potential collapse. Events can change, even while this post is being created.

That being said, what’s happening here is akin to ‘settling in’ on a trade, monitoring price action, trend lines, and support/resistance, to mentally prepare for what could be a sustained move.

So far, that approach is working.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News, Bad News … Biotech

September 19, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, Biotech, LABD, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The List, Wyckoff 4 Comments

When Price Action Heads South

One of the first things a professional (mentor) will teach aspiring traders, is:

‘Big money potential is on the downside’.

A famous example of this, was during the Panic of 1907,

Jesse Livermore raised capital by hawking his car for $5,000 (according to Wyckoff), then shorted the market.

Near the bottom on (or about) October 24th, 1907, he covered; netting over $1 million in profits.

That Was Then … Is That Now?

Well, conditions change, but human behavior does not.

Back in the day, it was newspapers, telephone, telegraph and ‘rumors’; today, we have Cramer 🙂

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the posts on this site are providing worthwhile insight.

Let’s move on to Biotech, SPBIO.

Since I am short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at that vehicle.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

After the entry on 9/14, at 16.99, price action has not looked back.

Note, the entry had a very tight stop as covered here.

The ‘risk’ is determined as the distance from entry to stop; in the case above, 16.99 – 16.66 = 0.33-pts.

For example, a ‘risk’ of $1,000 let’s say, equates to a position size just over 3,000 shares LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trending

The chart shows LABD, is currently trending higher at an aggressive rate.

There’s no guarantee this will continue to hold.

However, at the same time, there’s been no ‘news generating’ breakout, either.

So, at this point, it’s all under the radar.

Bad News Comes Out

When price action heads south, bad news comes out.

On a daily basis now, with articles like this and this.

Positioning

The initial position has already been discussed.

Other minor ones have been opened but the more important part, is Stop placement.

The initial Stop has been moved from LABD 16.66 to yesterday’s low of LABD 17.59 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AI, ‘Train-Wreck’, Leaves Station

July 20, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Edward Dowd, LABD, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TSM

Did You See The ‘Elephant’ ?

It’s hidden in plain sight.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) releases lackluster results, revenue slowdown and new building construction delays.

TSM says the delays stem from the inability to find qualified workers.

Edward Dowd provides insight on the overall reduction of employees, in this interview (Time stamp 5:10).

Bull Trap Shut, Train Leaving Station

If there ever was a ‘gotcha’ moment, this is it.

Even while the mainstream continues to tout the hype, here, here and here, the market has reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The daily chart of SOXX, has the MACD bearish divergence confirmed. Price action is now (as of 3:05 p.m., EST) well below the breakout (blue line) resistance area.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

This site does not give advice, but it can be inferred by reading the reports what actions are being executed (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, short positions in the SOXX, via leveraged inverse SOXS, were entered early during yesterday’s session at SOXS 8.54 and SOXS 8.69.

As a side note, within minutes after today’s market open, the gain in the SOXS, fully erased the -7.9% loss via LABD, noted in yesterday’s update.

The Biotech ‘Bid’

For whatever reason, probably to be revealed months or years from now, biotech, the instigator of the ‘elephant’ is not selling off into a market collapse as expected.

Instead, the effects are being played out in low-margin industries like airlines and semiconductors.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Last of The Bubble(s)

July 19, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TSM 1 Comment

‘Idol’ Worship

If Artificial Intelligence, really is the last of the bubble(s), isn’t it appropriate we culminate in a market top of the ages, with the desire (and delusion) that we can be like God.

Let’s ask ‘AI’ how to get rid of spike protein … see what it says.

We’re around mid-day; the SOXX, is raging a bull/bear battle inside the range of yesterday’s session.

Tuesday’s session was not able to post a new high or low. With that said, the Fibonacci count from the last update remains intact.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart shows upside pressure (volume) is dissipating.

As of this post, the MACD (not shown) is flat, waiting to tick lower; not yet confirming the bearish divergence.

A penetration of the prior session low, SOXX 524.11, would give a classical analysis sell signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorow’s TSM Earnings

Anything can happen.

SOXX, could spike higher to the previously identified 550- 560, area.

Or, we could have an immediate ‘sell the news’ event.

Either way, it’s up to the speculator/trader to decide for himself whether to take action, or not.

Biotech Short

Separately, the biotech short via LABD, has been exited with a – 7.9%, loss. So, there’s that.

On to the next trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

BridgeBio … Buy or Sell ?

July 17, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, BBIO, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO

Or … Just Another ‘Pump & Dump‘

Seems like anything related to the heart is all the rage these days.

‘Protein‘, Anyone?

So, it is with BridgeBiopharma (BBIO), currently the number three in market cap on the S&P biotech Index, SPBIO.

The daily chart shows the extent of the day’s move.

BridgeBiopharma (BBIO), Daily

Note that price action did NOT gap above resistance but pushed up to that area during the session; backing off (slightly) before the close.

Correspondingly, the leveraged inverse fund LABD had a rough day in the early session.

However, that down move was already starting to erode before the close.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

The blue arrow shows price action closed well off the lows (blue line).

Tomorrow, there are a number of data releases scheduled, link here before the open, then during the early session.

Expectations

While still maintaining a short position via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), the expectation is BBIO, has the garden variety pump-and-dump.

We’ve all seen this movie before … right?

That is, completion of a ‘trial’ is a long way from ‘approval’ and then manufacturing start-up.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279