Each retrace higher in biotech (IBB) has a lower top.
Right now, risk has been squeezed down to the hash-marked area on the chart.
It’s the distance between 153.84 and 153.15, just 0.69-points.
A push past the previous retrace high of 153.84, means IBB is now sub-dividing higher; exiting the current short position is warranted (not advice, not a recommendation).
Pre-market action has IBB trading higher but below the last session high.
This juncture, 0.69-points from subdividing higher or reversal, is a low risk area; the distance from exiting or maintaining short is narrow.
The daily chart below has price action with Fibonacci projections.
Yesterday, IBB touched and reversed from the 50% projected level … thus giving it some amount of validation.
As sated in previous updates (from empirical observation), if price action gets to the 50% level, it tends to continue on to at least a 61.8%.
We’ll see if that’s the case here.
Fundamentals and News:
Fundamentally, the wheels continue to fall off the narrative.
Yet again, we have posts like this showing the devastation of experimental gene ‘therapy’.
The ‘Project’ remains short the sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). The stop may have been moved up too quickly (a possible error), so we’ll see what happens with early action.
Summary:
We’re at the edge where IBB either posts higher and continues with a bull move or it stalls and reverses.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With such greed, avarice and deceit on full display, one can’t expect everyone (of them) to be operating in concert.
Positioning:
Our Project got stopped out with a profit early in the session. Based on the above data, that position, LABD has been re-entered (not advice not a recommendation):
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The link, located here is an interview with Reiner Fuellmich, a lawyer (a good one) that’s been at the center of the ‘speck’ investigation since inception.
This one interview, all nineteen-minutes, thirty one seconds, is probably the best summary of the current situation.
The link above comes with a warning:
If you’re one of those still asleep, after watching the interview, you’ll never be the same. You’ll be forever changed.
To put it biblically, “Your eyes will be opened”.
That is, if this lie can be perpetrated world-wide (as it has), then what does that say about all other media generated propaganda: the (stolen) election, the fake oval office, the fake executive orders, the fake insurrection.
The examples above are just from the past six-months!
For emphasis, we’ll throw in one more link that seems un-related but it’s not; it shows just how long events have been purposely shaped to fit a narrative.
Of course, this ‘thought shaping’ goes back even farther … if not a hundred years or more.
Market Impact:
So, what’s all this have to do with the markets and specifically biotech, IBB?
The interview’s implications for biotech are clear.
David Stockman has a post located here whose title sums it up nicely:
‘… a scam like no other’.
It’s just a matter of time before the public is either awakened or severely, permanently, damaged by following (and believing) the lie.
This time around, cemeteries are likely to be overrun … for real.
If that happens, repercussions to the biotech sector would (likely) be severe to catastrophic (down -90%, maybe?).
Even though a few within IBB are directly involved, all are likely to take a hit
Market Positioning:
In our Project Stimulus table, we’re short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). The stop has been moved above break-even.
It’s important to not let fundamentals (above) bleed into market positioning. It’s impossible to say when or if fundamentals will take control.
What we have now is IBB looking as if those fundamentals are providing a backdrop for technical action (described below). However, technical action can change instantly.
Biotech, IBB Technical Analysis:
Typically, this morning’s action would signal a ‘short exit’ or ‘go long’; when price action immediately gaps above the prior session high.
However, we already know on a long term (quarterly, monthly, weekly) basis, IBB has reversed. That does not mean price can’t go into some type of truncated rally … it can.
What the long term momentum says, if a rally occurs, it’s likely to be short and reverse quickly.
As of this post, it looks like whatever rally there was, it was over within the hour.
Technically, we have an interesting situation. IBB may have formed an Andrews’ Pitchfork.
The first chart shows the set up and has the width of the Pitchfork at a Fibonacci 21-days (plus one).
The second chart is a compressed version for better perspective.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
9:13 a.m. EST: Since the ‘project’s’ positioned short biotech, that’s the focus for the morning.
The last two updates, here and here, showed biotech acting differently than other markets.
With IBB currently down nearly -15%, from its all time print high, it’s already in ‘correction’ territory; just a few percent more, it’ll be classified as ‘bear market’.
The weekly close shows another bearish set-up with what looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. Note the second ‘bounce’ off the neckline was markedly lower than the first.
Energy to the upside is dissipating. Price action may be ready to penetrate the neckline.
As of this post, inverse fund LABD is trading unchanged to slightly higher (on about 24,000 shares).
If there’s a decisive move lower in IBB (higher LABD), we’ll change the LABD stop. With a current stop at 22.96, (not advice, not a recommendation) we’re right at break even.
Truth Begins to Surface
Stated many times on this site, with such a big (world-wide) lie, it’ll be hard to keep the truth under wraps … especially so, when scenes like this are everyday events.
Several corporations in the IBB sector, are providing the public ‘service’ shown in the above link. We’ll go into their technical condition in a separate update.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Monthly, weekly and daily MACD histogram, all down.
We’ll look at several daily charts before moving on to weekly and P&F.
Above, the Head & Shoulders pattern is clear. There’s a down-sloping neckline with a rally that looks to be rolling over.
An alternate view are two wedge patterns:
On to the weekly. A Fibonacci projection has been added showing down move potential.
Lastly, daily P&F with its own projections.
Interesting to note: Range from 104 – 127, closely matches the 100.0% – 161.8%, Fibonacci range of 108.50 – 128:
From the previous update, biotech IBB, appears to have broken from the crowd. Momentum indicators on multiple timeframes have all lined up to the downside.
Friday’s after-market activity (BigCharts), has IBB down -0.84, on a solid 1,035,712, shares.
If the aftermarket volume is correct (no misprints or errors), it’s equivalent to 25% , of the entire volume for the day’s regular session.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The table lists well known index ETF’s; along with most recent highs and current (Friday) close:
All the usual suspects are there:
S&P 500, SPY, The Dow 30, DIA, Nasdaq, QQQ, and on.
What’s also listed is how far each index (ETF) is from its most recent all time high or ‘recovery’ high (in percentage terms).
Obviously, one of these is completely out of bed: Biotech, IBB
We’ll be discussing the technical condition of biotech tomorrow. For now, the updated ‘project’ chart’s included below:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Decisive trend break and test. Biotech IBB’s, ready to continue downside action.
Today may be the day for downside follow-through. We’ll see.
The work has already been done showing long term IBB, has reversed to the downside. Reference posts here and here, if needed.
The hourly chart of inverse fund LABD (3X inverse, IBB) shows pre-market range along with potential trend activity.
Yesterday, IBB was shorted via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). Project table below:
If and when IBB makes a new daily low and LABD a new daily high, the stop will be moved. If so, the GTC stop order is likely to be updated toward the end of the session.
As this post is being created, Bid/Ask spreads on LABD are fluctuating.
Last trade @ 23.31 +0.23, +1.00%. Earlier, pre-market trading was lower.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
DRV pushed through our stop early in the session; position closed (not advice, not a recommendation).
1:50 p.m. EST:
Despite all the analysis, IYR is showing continued buoyancy.
Something else is going on; possibly related to Uneducated Economist’s link provided in the last update.
Taking his cue, a functioning mortgage market is all important to the financial narrative, it’s possible this market will be more heavily manipulated than others.
At this juncture it would make sense. All indications are for reversal … yet it’s not happening in any significant way.
Time for another trade.
We’re going back to a market that in retrospect, should’ve been the focus all along; Biotech.
This site’s coming from the perspective those reading, are well aware the ‘speck’ as we call it (to avoid censorship) was a fabricated event.
Just a reminder that we’re not some ‘Johnny come lately’, here’s the link from way back in May, last year.
That post proves the situation was figured out well before the May 17th publish date (interviews, observations conducted a month prior).
What’s not fabricated however, are the repercussions from the so-called cure for the speck.
Unfortunately, those are happening now and are quite real.
Moving on to the trade.
Despite the number of transactions shown in the Project Stimulus table (below), the objective is to minimize activity. We’re looking for a mid, to long term sustainable move; gain potential, 100% to 1,000%.
Monthly and weekly have reversed as well; both the monthly and weekly MACD indicators point down. Daily is essentially flat.
The hourly chart of LABD (3X inverse IBB) shows the entry location and subsequent price action. Stop is the session low @ 22.23 (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s worth repeating, the false narrative on the speck and consequences of speck protection may blow up in the media (and biotech) at any time.
As J.P. says, getting people to do something they know is bad for them (or lethal) is the ultimate ‘elite’ high.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The inverted chart puts it into perspective. Biotech has already reversed.
It would seem fitting as truth is hard to put down forever.
One can only hope the whole fake ‘speck’ narrative will be blown wide open … taking the entire sector down with it.
It may already be happening but in such slow (long term) motion that we’re not noticing it.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday’s swift move lower in IBB looks like the start of the next leg down.
Update 10:34 a.m. EST in red below:
Closer inspection however, shows biotech could pivot and move to higher levels … if only temporarily.
We’re looking at the 30-minute chart of IBB. Yesterday’s action penetrated minor support and stopped dead.
When price action behaves in that manner, it puts the index in what Wyckoff called ‘spring position’ ready to move higher.
Then we have the wide 30-minute (red) bar from the session; likely to be tested. To do that, action needs to move higher.
The target area is near a 62% retrace of the entire down move from the high on February 10th, to the low on March 5th.
Note, yesterday was a Fibonacci Day 13, from that March low.
Even though IBB’s likely to move higher, we’re leaving it alone.
If action gets to the target, we’ll be ready to short (via LABD) if there’s opportunity.
Update:
It’s not called “The Danger Point” for nothing.
Price action penetrates deep below (minor) support effectively negating the ‘spring’ scenario discussed.
We’ve now penetrated below another support level
Price action can still spring upward from here … although probabilities appear to be fading.
Either way, we’re not interested in going long at historic valuations.
Separately, our ‘project’ has maintained short real estate via DRV (not advice not a recommendation), to be covered in a later update.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 