Random Notes

November 29, 2021 By thedangerpoint in DJUSBM, Good Patriot, Patriot Nurse, Random Notes, SMN, SPY, The Speck, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

Special ‘No-Normal’ Edition

No. 1

Dealing With ‘Brain Dead’

If you have to deal with asleep, brain-dead, self-hypnotized, condescending, mainstream news-feeders, here’s a tip.

Remember, it’s not “your opinion”.

Patent numbers, patent descriptions, dates, names, payrolls, money trails, corporations, whistleblower testimonies, irrefutable compilations like this, are not an opinion.

They are fact.

No. 2

No Infrastructure

From time stamp 12:08, to 14:27, in the above link (repeated here), there are 108, players or individuals receiving the benefits of ‘Speck’ protection.

We call it The Speck from Horton Hears A Who … because it’s so small, nobody’s ever found one; not even the Cee Dee Cee or the N ‘EYE’ H. Sorry for the ‘code’.

The majority of those in the compilation are so protected, they won’t ever need another update.

You might say, they’re ‘fully protected’.

We can take that montage and extrapolate it to the rest of the population. Remember this?

It does not take much to figure out, rapidly increasing instability is the way forward.

While there may be an infrastructure bill in name … if workers are not available and supplies restricted or non-existent, there’s no infrastructure.

Admittedly, that’s very oversimplified.

Sure, there may be some projects that get started and have limited progress.

However, after reading this summary of the built-in insanity, one really has to actually be favoring a collapse so these projects don’t get implemented to any large degree.

Bringing us to the next item.

No. 3

Double-Secret-Probation, ‘Omicron’

It would be nice to laugh at stupidity if stupidity wasn’t so dangerous.

The powers are wasting no time … declaring a ‘State of Emergency’ even though nothing has happened.

They openly mock the idiots that still buy into the hype; their contempt, completely out in the open.

Even a working-class Cockney Brit, has got it figured out. It can’t be that hard, can it?

Note at time stamp 2:40, it shows that we may have already had the Epsilon variant. It must have come and gone.

I completely missed it. My bad. 🙂

No. 4

The Sheep … Too Far Gone

A hopeful comment taken at time stamp 4:02, at this link:

Those who have bought in, and voluntarily injected themselves … even if they were lucky enough to get a placebo, will not wake up.

Amadha Vollmer has stated it well when she said, ‘when the truth finally hits, they will lose their minds.’

From a Biblical standpoint, that does not mean we give up on them. Plant the seed but then walk away and continue to prepare.

If by some miracle … because that’s what it would have to be, they do wake up, it’s your opportunity to take the lead and direct their (an your) next steps.

Be prepared … it could happen.

No. 5

So, Now It’s CXVXD-21 ?

You can’t make this up and it’s more insane by the day.

The sheer repetition of the fear narrative, like ever-increasing drug use for the same effect, has got to be wearing off … becoming less effective with each news release.

On top of that, there are literally less people able to buy into the narrative

Reference No 1, above. They have already received full protection; not subject to further updates.

No. 6

Sky High Ammo Prices

Going to the comment sections on YouTube sites or vendor sites, has the typical collection of blowhards saying:

“I refuse to pay these prices. I’m going to wait until they come down”.

It’s possible, at least some of these guys are the same middle-aged, overweight, out-of-shape posers, that like to have useless crap all over their AR.

When the bravest guy in the room is a woman (linked here), it means, that trash hanging off your AR is a bill-board; effectively saying:

‘I’m hiding behind my AR crap and probably a coward’.

Another woman, linked here, has actually decided to use the AR platform.

However, she trains with ‘Iron Sights’ … BAM !!!

Let’s go to this link and time stamp 1:13.

If that’s the future availability of our currently high-priced product, meaning there is none, does it really matter how much it costs now?

Of course, the posers are busy posing.

They won’t matter when it all hits. They’ll still be waiting for prices to come down on something that’s no longer there.

No. 7

S&P, In ‘Spring Position’

Price action penetrated support last week and is set to attempt a rally.

The futures market opened about 90-minutes ago and shows S&P trading up about +0.80%.

That upward bias may also lift the Basic Materials Sector (DJUSBM) and possibly offer a low risk short position via SMN (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll be watching.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Basic Materials, Building Blocks

November 27, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, Dow 30, DUST, DXD, Great Depression, QID, SDS, SMN, SOXS

Infrastructure … Not Going To Happen

The infrastructure bill, right along with any kind of sustainable ‘recovery’ is just not in the charts.

Sure, the bill passed into ‘law’, if you can call it that; however, law and action are two different things.

We’ll get into more fundamentals behind why it’s not happening in tomorrow’s Random Notes … to be released later in the day.

One hint on why we’re not getting a major U.S. wide building program, there won’t be the manpower or supplies available … each for their own reasons.

That brings us to the chart of the sector.

DJUSBM

The weekly chart shows how it looks going all the way back to early 2008.

If you did not immediately pick up on the right side’s message, it’s highlighted below … a massive bearish MACD divergence.

The divergence proposes that upside momentum for the sector is all but spent.

Let’s take a look at previous downside action and the current possibility.

Anybody that’s awake will not argue the current situation’s worse than 2007 – 2008.

If that’s the case, and if the market’s still alive at the bottom, DJUSBM could get as low, or lower than 2008 – 2009, levels.

A decline over 80%, is not uncommon for a bear/depression market. The Dow Jones 30, from top-to-bottom, during the Great Depression was around – 84%.

Inverse Fund, SMN

SMN is -2X inverse the DJSUBM.

However, this fund is not like inverse ETFs; SDS, DXD, SOXS, QID, DUST, and so on.

Basic Materials is not ‘popular’. At least, not yet.

That means the fund is illiquid with larger spreads (bid/ask). In addition, it takes a good few minutes after each open for those spreads to calm down and narrow up.

It’s not for the inexperienced.

Summary:

As we’ll get into tomorrow, ‘normal’, is gone.

There’s not going to be ‘normal’ (a personal opinion) in the lifetimes of anyone reading these updates.

That doesn’t mean there are no opportunities.

Basic Materials, DJUSBM, is about to, or already has (potentially) started its downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Market Summary

August 2, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, BIS, DIA, DJUSBM, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, IBB, IWM, IYM, LABD, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY

Dow, S&P, Russell … all outside down

Three markets with key reversals and the biotech sector (SPBIO) posting an inside day.

One other (less followed) market of note with outside down, was basic materials (DJUSBM).

Gold’s (GLD) upward thrust from Thursday the 29th, continues to erode.

One gets the sense that it’s slipping away for the bulls.

SPBIO price action shows the most probable direction is lower.

Expectation for the next session, is for some kind of downside follow-through along with lower market action overall.

Positions:

Current positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) being short the biotech sector via LABD.

Market updates for the week will be limited (as the result of travel) and will resume with technical discussions by the week-end.

Stay Tuned

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

SOXX: Textbook Top?

July 6, 2021 By thedangerpoint in DIA, DJUSBM, Holiday Turns, IWM, IYM, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SOXS, SOXX, SPY, Trading 2 Comments

11:48 a.m., EST

By The Book?

SOXX chart: Like something from a book on trading

Price action’s struggling at new highs. MACD’s posting a bearish divergence. Can it get any better for the shorts?

(not advice, not a recommendation)

At least one thing missing (as of this post) is a new daily low. If we get that, it helps provide confirmation of a SOXX, top.

The S&P (SPY ) and the Dow (DIA), have both posted new daily lows as has the Russell 2000 (IWM).

We can also throw in Basic Materials DJUSBM (IYM), making a new daily low.

Recall in a previous update, empirical observation over the years; market tops tend to occur before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Looks like we may be there.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Correction Over?

May 18, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, DJUSBM, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff

3:34 p.m., EST

SPBIO may have completed its correction.

Above is the hourly SPBIO chart; inverted and annotated.

Under the conditions shown above, when price action penetrates support and then reverses, it’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring’.

From this point, the expectation is for a moderate rise, then test and then a dynamic rise to the top of the trading range.

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

Print High & Close

April 10, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Biotech, BIS, DIA, DJUSBM, Dow 30, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, LABD, Project Stimulus, QQQ, Russell 2000, SOXX, SPY, XHB, XLF 2 Comments

The table lists well known index ETF’s; along with most recent highs and current (Friday) close:

All the usual suspects are there:

S&P 500, SPY, The Dow 30, DIA, Nasdaq, QQQ, and on.

What’s also listed is how far each index (ETF) is from its most recent all time high or ‘recovery’ high (in percentage terms).

Obviously, one of these is completely out of bed: Biotech, IBB

We’ll be discussing the technical condition of biotech tomorrow. For now, the updated ‘project’ chart’s included below:

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Rally

March 26, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Basic Materials, Bonds, Cramer, DJUSBM, Dollar, Gold & Silver, Interest Rates, IYM, Livermore, Project Stimulus, Real Estate, SMN, UUP, Wyckoff

Wasn’t the dollar supposed to crash … go to zero … implode?

This is the flip side of the hyperinflation narrative.

Dollar implosion like hyperinflation, not happening.

Way back in 1921, Livermore said to Wyckoff that his assessment of the markets was, ‘it’s all about deception’.

Nothing has changed.

It’s in the best interests of those controlling the narrative to have as many as possible (always) on the wrong side of the trade.

We haven’t posted this link in a while … the video keeps getting deleted but re-appears every so often. This is how it really works … Period.

Note the date stamp on the comments. The video’s at least 13-years old and it’s still relevant today.

So, the dollar’s in a rally.

Not only that, momentum indicators, MACD, on the monthly, weekly, daily, all point higher. It’s in a rally and a sustainable one.

It’s completely opposite the accepted narrative.

You can feel the tensions building.

Bonds could be reversing but have already pushed rates high enough (long enough) to choke-off critical sectors of the economy like here and here.

Now we see the dollar has bottomed as well.

It looks like a strong multi-month (or year?) rally. Correspondingly, gold is weak. The overall markets are stretched to ever-livin’ extremes; never before seen.

Whenever this baby pops, try logging on to chaos, or exit any position (except maybe for the long bond).

Our approach then (not advice, not a recommendation), is continue work on positioning short. So far, the ‘project’ is taking small hits in those attempts. We’ll see how basic materials (SMN) works out today.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

Squeezed Tight

March 25, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, Project Stimulus, SMN

Depending on how you look at it, it doesn’t get any better:

If a short position is going to fall apart, it won’t take much of a move.

Even though DJUSBM closed higher than yesterday, on a price action basis, the index subdivided lower; a lower high, lower low.

We’re maintaining our short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow’s action will likely show if that was a good move or not.

Charts by StockCharts

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.

Basic Materials

March 25, 2021 By thedangerpoint in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, IYM, Project Stimulus, SMN, SPY, Uneducated Economist, Van Metre

Nobody’s paying attention to this index. It may be one of the cleanest (technical) short opportunities.

Basic Materials. Sounds boring.

Sounds like fertilizer … and it is … right along with industrial chemicals.

Three largest cap in the sector are below:

Industrial gasses, Linde AG

Industrial gasses and chemicals, Air Products & Chemicals

Water purification, Ecolab

DuPont is next and then Newmont mining. So, this is a potential deflation play (Newmont) as well.

A post just out yesterday, Uneducated Economist does an excellent job destroying the inflation narrative.

Steven Van Metre has also repeated many times, we’re likely to get a deflation impulse first before inflation.

One of the most important things he’s said, the Fed is not going to correct the public’s (false narrative) perception that inflation’s the danger.

If everyone’s pointed in the wrong direction, and it serves their interests, why correct it?

Which brings us back to Basic Materials. ‘Nobody’s watching’ this index. How do we know?

Look at the inverse fund, SMN.

Russell 2000 inverse, TZA, averages 6 – 10 million shares per day. Compare that to SMN’s 2,500 shares on a good day.

Volume does pick up as price action becomes active. Some days will be 100,000 – 200,000 shares.

Looking at the technical condition, there are bearish divergences on both daily and weekly time-frames. The chart at the top shows a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) condition just tested yesterday.

The response is to go short via SMN (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’re actively managing accounts throughout the day, it’s not a problem to monitor SMN and the bid/ask of the fund when trading is light.

The ‘project’ table has been updated:

Pre-market has SPY trading down about -1.5 points or -0.40%. The expectation is for Basic Materials to follow suit.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.