Category Archives: GDX

Another Gold “Blip”

December 23, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, NEM

More ‘Inflation’

Gold Does Nothing

Another ‘maximum inflation‘ story, another non-confirmation in gold.

If that weren’t enough, look who’s out pounding the pavement (again) on inflation.

The press itself, possibly unbeknownst to them, is helping to destroy the (monetary) inflation narrative.

Or at least, revealing we’re actually in the middle of something that’s not quite understood by us in the proletariat.

If monetary inflation really was that rampant (an opinion), gold and other precious metals would be in a screaming bull market … manipulation or not.

That hyper bull market has not and is not happening.

However, what is happening, and what continues to happen, are scenes like this … and this

Let’s move on to the charts.

Newmont (NEM) will be analyzed over the weekend. For now, we’ll use GDX, leveraged inverse fund DUST.

GDX, Inverse DUST (4-Hour)

The first two trade points are clear. The ‘set-up’ and the ‘gut check’.

Whether or not we’re completing the first correction won’t be known until price action at least makes a new daily high, above today’s DUST: 20.45.

The zoom chart below, helps show DUST, is penetrating support … now in spring position.

Obviously, stating the first correction as ‘complete’ was premature.

However, if we are going to see a continued downtrend in GDX and uptrend in DUST, the chart above looks like today’s action is a good area for pivot/reversal.

With today’s screaming 40-year inflation news (first link, above) all gold could do (as of this post) in the futures market, was a meagre 0.43% blip higher.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont: Textbook Test

December 22, 2021 By in David Weis, DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM

Is It Too Perfect ?

NEM: Daily Close

‘If on the next retrace, volume contracts ….’

That’s the training given by the late David Wies years ago concerning springs and up-thrusts.

His inference, if the volume contracts on the pull-back, the set-up has been tested; resumption of the reversal (up or down) is now expected to continue in earnest.

More analysis to follow but that’s where Newmont looks to be at this juncture.

Both gold (GLD), Newmont (NEM), and the miners (GDX), are at the danger point.

At this juncture, price action distance to trade failure or continued sucess is quite small (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Next Set-Up: Russell 2000

December 21, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, IWM, TZA

Do You See It ?

It’s not always what’s happening; it’s also what’s not happening.

‘The curious incident of the dog in the night-time’ … the dog did not bark and so indicated, it knew the killer.

In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday night update (time stamp 5:55), he highlighted that small caps, IWM, (Russell 2000) tracking fund is in a ‘crash pattern’.

We’re going to look at the small caps and see what’s there and what’s not.

Russell 2000 (IWM):

Weekly Chart of IWM

The up-thrust is clear … we can see that.

However, the question is, what’s not happened with this (potential) set-up?

Moving to the daily chart, it shows the up-thrust has not been tested.

There’s no rule that says it has to be.

However, price action shows a spring set-up and retrace in process (below). We also have a Fibonacci target that looks like it might work out.

Moving closer in on the daily.

A retrace to the 62% level, would (could) act as the test of the up-thrust shown on the weekly chart.

That move if it takes place, would create its own up-thrust of the resistance area (below the 62%, level).

On top of that, we may have financial media helping out by getting participants on the wrong side; if so, they’re likely to foment news stories of continued ‘recovery’ or ‘inflation’ moderating … or some such non-sense.

The Media’s Role

In fact, if we get a retrace and the press does not jump on board … I’d be wary of the set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember what a good job they did with gold … $3,000/oz, is “imminent”, right?

Gold Down, Market Up?

Is that possible?

For starters, the question is what’s called a ‘mind-trap’. A certain way of thinking that causes one to get boxed-in.

The dollar continues its rally and gold appears to still be inversely correlated. We’ll stay with that as the main indicator of GDX downside potential.

Yesterday, it was thought the up-side correction in GDX, was complete … and that may still hold true. Today’s action looks like a minor test (thus far) of that correction.

Note, at this juncture, heavy-hitter, NEM, has posted out-side-down from yesterday’s price bar … hinting that it’s ready to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Trapped, Again ???

December 20, 2021 By in DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Livermore, Prechter 1 Comment

Turn The Screws

Thumbscrew

Having been on the wrong side of major moves numerous times, I have first-hand experience on what’s likely to happen next.

If the bulls are trapped for a second time, those in control, the bears, are going to put the screws to those on the wrong side (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could be a straightforward downward thrust or a slow capital draining grind.

We won’t know how bad it’s going to be (for them) until it’s over; Keeping in mind at all times, anything can happen.

Rule Of Alternation

Yesterday’s update said the following:

“Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.”

Price action in GDX, has posted a new daily low (below last Friday’s low); a potential indication we could be starting the next leg lower.

The basis of that assessment is from a technical discussion published by Robert Prechter, Jr., in the early 2000s (’02, ’03, if memory serves) as ‘the rule of alternation’.

Basically, what happened last time, won’t happen this time.

Senior Miners, GDX

The daily chart shows the eight-day up-thrust, along with current action.

The mark-up makes it clear

It was eight days above resistance battling it out between bulls and bears.

Now, we’ve had one day above resistance (level posted on, 12/7) followed by a new daily low.

Correction Complete ?

The following (DUST-21-01), is the trade sequence currently being used.

Based on the above analysis, we’re going to tentatively call ‘The first correction’ as complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: DUST-21-01

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: Complete
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

Looking For The Trend

Next up in the trade sequence, is identification of a trend or trends … if any.

For now, we have the potential channel shown below.

Now comes the part most traders/speculators find difficult; That is, wait.

As Livermore said in Reminiscences, (paraphrasing): ‘It wasn’t the thinking that made me money … it was the waiting’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Natives … Getting Restless

December 19, 2021 By in Dr. Elder, DUST, DUST-21-01, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Latest Reversal … Exposes The ‘Experts’

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked.’

No fan, and no endorsement of Buffett but the quote is applicable.

If yesterday’s Newmont analysis holds, meaning, it’s the last stand before another leg-lower, gold bulls might start acting irrationally.

Is it even possible to be more irrational?

Remember their manic prediction of $3,000/oz, gold in months, not years?

Barring a major reversal, the tide’s going out.

From the comments section of this ZeroHedge article, some in the herd are figuring it out as well.

As one of them says … ‘another year to wait before the Great Pumpkin’ (i.e., gold moving higher).

As this post is created, comments continue to pour-in.

Gold bulls are frustrated, confused, pontificating, crypto loving/hating, central bank blaming, it’s all there.

Thus far, there’s not one comment on what price action is actually doing.

Public Service Announcement

This whole business with the financial media and its attendant hucksters (recent examples, here and here) is actually a fantastic public service.

For anyone who’s still able to think (an act of rebellion in itself), it’s clear, or should be, if you’re on TV, or the mainstream media, you’re a shill until proven otherwise.

The good part?

All of this media, podcast, carpetbagging and corruption, plays right into the hand of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff focused on what is … not what should be.

Even back in the early 1930s, he was adamant about ignoring the financial press. ‘You’ll never be successful’, he said if you listen to the hype.

Mixed Messages

On cue to support that statement, is Dan, from i-Allegedly; he reports ‘we’re getting mixed messages‘ in the economy.

Proving the point.

The (Trade) Plan Forward

With the caveat, anything can happen; gold could rally in a couple hours when the futures open, the short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation), is as follows:

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: On-going
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

What’s In A Name ?

Even if the trade fails at the next session, it would still provide valuable information.

With that in mind, no matter what happens it’s likely to be referenced in the future; so, it needs a name (or number).

Taking a cue from prior engineering work (creating numbering schemes), the current trade will be identified now, and in future posts, as: DUST-21-01.

Seems straightforward.

The ‘First’ Correction

No. 3, above is titled ‘The first correction’.

This labeling is borrowed from a trade discussed by William Doane, in Dr. Elder’s book: Entries & Exits.

Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Holds The Key

December 18, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Livermore, NEM, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

‘Last Man Standing’

Founded by William Boyce Thompson in 1916, Newmont (NEM) was around over a century ago during Livermore and Wyckoff’s day.

Thompson is center in the photo with President, Warren G. Harding at left.

Wyckoff and Thompson were interconnected.

In Wyckoff’s autobiography, he writes about working for Thompson’s firm (Thompson, Towle & Co.) in 1910.

During that time, he describes no fewer than two stock ‘manipulation’ schemes; one by renowned James R. Keene and the other by Thompson himself during a deal-gone-bad with the Guggenheims.

Also in 1910, Wyckoff published his seminal work: Studies In Tape Reading. If there’s any one book to read concerning how markets work, ‘Studies ..’ is that book.

Wyckoff had first-hand exposure into market operations by the wealthy and super wealthy. More importantly, he saw how those transactions showed themselves on the tape.

Last check, a first edition ‘Studies’ went for around $3,500. A quick search as of this post, turns up nothing currently available.

For those who complain ‘it’s rigged’, to that we can say, ‘it’s always been rigged’.

Determine what those ‘rigging’, are trying to accomplish and you may have a trade.

Now, to the market at hand: Newmont Mining.

It’s the key; the largest cap equity in the Senior Mining Index (GDX).

Newmont, NEM

The daily chart:

For those who have been with this site for a while, you may instantly see the set-up: Spring to Up-Thrust.

The marked-up chart makes it clear.

Moving in a little closer for additional clues:

We can see from the volume itself, there were a huge number of transactions this past Friday.

NEM penetrated long established resistance.

In so doing, it set off a massive number of orders: Buy orders, sell orders, sell-short.

Senior Mining Index: GDX

The other part of the story and the one that weights it to the bears:

While NEM, is at multi-month highs, senior miners GDX, is nowhere near its highs.

Daily chart, GDX:

What does that mean?

It means the market is ‘thinning-out’

The professionals and maybe some investors alike, are abandoning the non-performing lesser cap equities; pouring funds into the last man standing NEM, in hopes that it will keep moving higher.

It’s desperation and signals market weakness.

As always, anything can happen and bulls may somehow take control.

However, from the charts themselves, hyper-stretched major indices coupled with insiders bailing out the most in history, uneducated ‘retail’ willingly stepping up to hold the bag, it does not look good for any bulls … gold or otherwise.

Summary:

We could find ourselves in a situation similar to the oil market in mid-2014 where it spontaneously deflated for eighteen months … nary a blip higher all the way down.

With that, we’re maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Before The Open

December 17, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions 1 Comment

Is Today The Day ?

Is today the day we find out who’s really in control?

The day where it’s either inflation or deflation?

It’s about 30-minutes before the open.

Pre-market action has gold (GLD), right at the Fibonacci 50% retrace level shown in the 4-Hour chart.

Gold (GLD) 4-Hour

Looking at the chart we see the following:

The up-thrust from November, was an island gap reversal (bearish).

During the Fed announcement (Wednesday, the 15th), price action penetrated weekly lows and set up a spring condition (bullish).

We’re at Fibonacci Day 3, of the spring and current trading at 50% retrace in the pre-market (neutral).

Pre-market trading is at an axis line which also indicated prior resistance on November 30th (bearish).

If price action opens or trades at the 50% level, it would also up-thrust the November 30th print high; therefore, creating a potential reversal condition (bearish).

Summary:

There’s a lot going on in the gold market.

The ‘man on the street’ YouTubers are screaming inflation and the need to “exit the system”.

That’s a great idea (exit). Just exactly how does that work anyway? A topic for another time.

Meanwhile, here we are.

We’re doing what price action’s telling us to do. That is, stay short until proven wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

That proof, for bulls or bears could come today.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Here We Go Again …

December 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Repeating Pattern(s)

“Spring to Up-Thrust”

That’s where we are now.

Yesterday’s update was out before gold (GLD) penetrated weekly lows.

Those who don’t understand the markets, will say it’s the Fed.

Those who do understand the markets (the trading pros) won’t say but keep it to themselves.

They’ll let the gold bulls think their day has come. We have hyperinflation at last!

As always, it could be true.

The more probable, price action based outcome; we’re in yet another push past resistance to trap the bulls.

Gold (GLD)

As of this post (about an hour into the session) the daily chart is in up-thrust position and 38%, retrace level simultaneously.

Zoom-in

So, it’s yet another danger point. If bulls are to take control, this is the spot.

If they fail, they are trapped yet again; if so, the next down-leg may be brutal indeed.

Positioning:

Maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation) with ‘cover-shorts-finger’ close the trigger.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Hit In The Head

December 15, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, UUP, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Waiting Around For The Fed

It’s been an abusive relationship for the gold bulls.

Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.

Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.

In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.

Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.

Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”

Which brings us to the gold market.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Zoom version

In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.

That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Zoom version

Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.

However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Expectations’ Are Not ‘Reality’

December 13, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions 1 Comment

Man On The Street … Inflation To Skyrocket

Even after gold and the miners have reversed lower, the press still implores gold to head higher.

Like something out of Moby Dick … even after Ahab is dead, he still beckons.

The above link gives us another report on ‘inflation expectations’ at a new record high.

Near the bottom, the text says that survey respondents expect ‘gold to continue acceleration higher’.

The problem: Gold’s not accelerating and currently, is not going anywhere.

The statement (or belief) is completely false.

Senior Miners, GDX

The short positioning continues (not advice, not a recommendation)

The daily chart of GDX, shows price action hugging the right-side trend-line. Each tap and reversal provides more data on potential direction lower.

With the understanding an exit could be required at any moment, the hits on the right side are being used to increase short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).

The zoom chart above, shows every short entry, except one, at a lower price (higher for DUST).

Summary:

Today’s ‘expectations’ report was released at 11:12, a.m.

If the day’s narrow-range bar is the best the gold miners can do with such high ‘inflation’, there must be something else more powerful at work (to the downside).

Maintaining short until the market itself says to get out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279