Category Archives: Gold & Silver

The Silver ‘Surprise’

July 26, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV 1 Comment

Confusion Abounds

Looks like the silver wipeout took more than a few by surprise.

However, that’s not the real story.

Some of the comments on various YouTube ‘analysis’ sites are to the effect:

I don’t know what to believe. I don’t know what’s real.

The inference is, that silver ‘should’ have gone higher.

There was supposed to be some kind of massive breakout as we head into hyperinflation, right?

Track Record, vs. ‘Should’

Part of the reason for posts on this site is to establish a track record.

The silver analysis over the past four months is the best recent example.

That assessment never wavered; price action in SLV, is consistent with either an outright reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is not consistent with a hyperinflation breakout.

Longtime visitors to this site would have least known that ‘something’s up’ with silver.

Its behavior does not fit the narrative.

Anything Can Happen

As always, the market can reverse and do something unexpected.

Price action could change character.

If so, the objective is to identify that change early, then assess opportunities (if any).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Metals … ‘Whacked!’

July 25, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV, UNG, UNG-24-11

Just Shocking

Especially shocking after having been subjected to non-stop delusion (now going on four months), and being ‘certain’ precious metals were headed higher.

Enough already.

Silver (SLV) is currently trading down a whopping -4.7%, in the pre-market session. Gold (GLD) is lower by about -1.2%.

Silver analysis has been consistent; SLV, price action itself, indicates a top and reversal or at best, sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation)

If one wants to review, starting back in April, we have:

Silver Top, Top Part II, Top Part III, Top Part IV, Top Part V, Top Part VI, Top Part VII, Top Part VII+, Stalls-Out

Now, this update essentially completes the process.

Silver, SLV, is about to open well below resistance as shown in the ‘Stalls-Out, update.

The Battle Against ‘Tik-Tok’ Brain

Fewer and fewer have a brain … like this (warning, profanity).

This guy sounds very much like the one in the ‘About‘ section. 🙂

Housekeeping: UNG, JDST

As can be inferred, a short trade via JDST, has already been opened: JDST-24-05.

Depending on today’s action, the stop listed is likely to be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas (UNG), on the other hand, is not behaving as expected.

The initial position UNG-24-11, was reduced by 80%, as a result of yesterday’s action. It’s likely that position will be closed out completely during this session (if not already).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Give Up The Bull

July 24, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05 1 Comment

Sucking Air … At The Top

For years, the strategic assessment of the miners (on this site) has been consistent. That is:

‘The precious metals mining sector (gold/silver) are not in a sustained bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).’

From that post nearly four years ago, the Juniors, GDXJ, are still over -22% below that price 🙂

The chart shows the Juniors GDXJ, have pushed above resistance in an apparent breakout that has failed.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

We’ve had the Up-Thrust, and now today, was the test.

If one is short this sector via JDST, a reasonable stop would be the session low of today @ JDST 30.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Stalls-Out (Again)

July 20, 2024 By in Copper, Dr. Elder, FCX, Gold & Silver, Lumber, SLV 1 Comment

It Must Be Those Evil ‘Manipulators’

When the ‘forecasts’ don’t work out, the complaining comes out.

As Dr. Elder said (paraphrasing), ‘Mistakes in the market are to be expected. Repeating mistakes is a sign of neurosis’.

Typical responses from a YouTube site, forever expecting the ‘hyperinflation’ launch, the usual suspects:

Silver is beyond pathetic

Uggggh premature [launch] AGAIN!

… negative sentiment … a little overdone

Actually, if we’re in a full-blown economic depression, negative sentiment has not even started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver, along with copper (and lumber) are good indicators for the health of the economy. So far, lumber has crashed outright; down ~70% from its 2021, peak.

For copper bellwether, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), it has not looked back since this report.

Let’s move on to silver. What’s the market telling us about the next likely direction?

Silver SLV, Weekly Close

As Yogi Berra said … ‘It’s Deja Vu all over again’ 🙂

The last time there was a similar upside volume crescendo, it marked the pivot point for a 30%, decline.

That decline took two-years to (fully) recover. Hardly ‘hyperinflation’.

Now, we’re at The Danger Point®, anything can happen.

If it’s another downside pivot, just the looks suggest a deeper decline than last time.

If, however, this time really is different, one would expect the upside to get started … and soon.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII … Plus

July 7, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

The Dash For Cash

Everyone’s scrambling for cash … but it’s ‘fiat cash’, they want.

Debts are paid with fiat cash. Food is bought with fiat cash. The local coin shop or pawn shop runs on fiat cash.

Or to be more accurate these days, ‘credit’ or ‘debit’ fiat cash.

The ‘Squeeze’ of 2021

Before getting to the chart (below), let’s go back to the ‘squeeze’, February of ’21; labeled as ‘Remember This?’

Back then it was hysteria just like now.

If you remember, the little guy was going to ‘put it to da man’; force their hand to admit there wasn’t enough physical to cover demand, yada, yada, on it went.

So, what really happened?

Well, the SLV ETF, (proposed or) changed its rules of silver allocation, that’s what happened. 🙂

Sorry Charlie, no silver squeeze this time.

These two posts covered the crowd delusion (and price action) fairly well; links here and here.

Is this time any different? Let’s go to the chart.

Silver SLV, Weekly

A prior update, link here, said that silver SLV, was at, or near a measured move target.

Still true; however, it didn’t make it there exactly. So, technically speaking, the target’s still in play.

Probably more important, is what we have now.

At the right side, we can see SLV, price (net) distance traveled is becoming shorter.

While that’s happening, commitment to that move, Force Index, is now bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Industrial Metal

While the kabuki theater known as rabid silver and gold bulls, continue to run amok, we have more and more evidence the economy is in full-blown decline.

By this time, referencing ‘official’ statistics, needs to be considered a ‘blue pill‘ move. It’s not reality.

So, here are just a few links, boots on the ground truth; here, here and here.

Half of silver produced is used in industry.

If the economy (industry) is contracting, would not silver do the same?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII

June 15, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SD Buiilion, SLV

‘There’s … No Demand’

The tagline above, paraphrased from the Chief Operating Officer of SD Bullion (time stamp 5:47, link here), is telling us all we need to know.

Over two months ago, that ‘no demand’ potential was reached by reading price action of SLV, itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Back then, posted here, was this (emphasis added):

“Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).”

With the caveat that ‘anything can happen’, let’s take a rational look at what SLV, price action is telling us now.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Based on prior action (circled areas), it’s not looking good for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re at the spot where there needs to be outsized demand to get SLV, above what’s now well-established resistance.

If the COO of SD Bullion himself says ‘there’s no demand’, then where’s that ‘outsized’ breakout demand going to come from?

With this being the seventh update on the (potential) reversal in SLV, this series is complete.

As a parting shot, buried within the interview (link above) is the hint; dealers, just like everyone else are scrambling for cash; yes, ‘fiat cash’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VI

June 1, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX

Top Or Channel?

The market itself, tells us where to look.

The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.

The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.

In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.

All of which brings us to the chart below.

Silver SLV, Monthly

From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.

Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.

The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?

Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?

When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.

The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part V

May 26, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV 1 Comment

Almost There … On Top Of Resistance

Here’s an obvious statement.

If silver’s going to breakout into ‘the big one’, it has to go higher (much higher) from here.

Can we say at this juncture, the press and ‘investors’ alike, are at max hyperbole?

Straight Out of The Bog

Here are just a few titles from the boggy moor, otherwise known as YouTube:

‘100% Certainty …’

‘Gold’s about to shock …’

‘… Warning to you all …’

‘… Prepare for the biggest rally ever ….’

And on it goes.

However, somehow finding its way out of the mire, we do have this: Bearish Reversal in Gold & Silver, link here.

From that link, and in Wyckoff terms, price action of ETF silver junior miner SILJ, is the clearest of the others, GDX and GDXJ.

Depending on how it goes this coming week, we’ll cover that ETF in a future update.

Now, back to silver. Does the actual truth, the chart, agree with the hype?

Silver SLV, Weekly

Since the last update SLV, reversed (higher) through what the market decided, was an intermediate resistance zone.

As shown below, SLV has pushed above the ‘last’ resistance and has come back to ‘test’.

Last week’s volume is shown as a red bar. Some prior red bars of similar size are highlighted on the chart.

This time could be different but the last time(s) such ‘negative’ volume occurred, resulting price action in SLV, was either sideways or down.

But wait, there’s more. The chart below shows SLV, has met or is near a measured move target.

The coming week could see SLV, inch its way higher to the measured move or continue the testing (possibly, reversal) action it started last week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s Decision … Down

May 25, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Speck-Effect, The Speck

Now, It Gets Interesting

Is it about to become a dumpster fire?

As usual, we have the rabid gold and silver bulls, breathless; ‘This is it!’, ‘This is the big one!’, ‘Dollar collapse, imminent!’

All the while, nobody’s reporting the fact, that ever since ‘The Speck’ was introduced in 2019, and of course, Speck ‘protection‘, gold production has dropped to 2014 levels, and has not recovered (source, Statista).

Is it as simple as ‘supply and demand’? Is the ‘inflation’ narrative, just another ruse?

Even as gold and silver are rising (for now), the mining sector’s GDX, GDXJ, are far below their all-time highs.

As if to put icing on the cake, Newmont, appears to have reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont Mining NEM, Daily (inverted)

Similar to recent biotech analysis, we’re inverting the chart to show the potential.

Note: This ‘inversion’ technique is a psychological exercise covered in one of Dr. Elder’s books (here and here).

It’s a basic fundamental for un-biased analysis.

Back in the day, while publishing on SeekingAlpha (a whole story in itself), users of that site would complain about charts being ‘upside down’. 🙂

Moving on, we have the following:

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

Price action has recoiled off the support (resistance non-inverted) and is now at a point where it may attempt to retrace for a test.

MACD has become successively bullish; now has a crossover signal.

As shown in prior updates here and here, the support level’s in the vicinity of the 23.6%, retrace.

That indicates bullishness on the chart above or weakness on non-inverted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Copper Top

May 22, 2024 By in Copper, FCX, Gold & Silver, SLV

Commodity ‘Blow-Off’

Throughout market history, commodity tops usually end the same way … Boom!

This time around for copper, it appears to be no different.

If we go to the futures chart (link here), it’s self-explanatory.

From the link, select ‘MAX’ on the chart and we see, copper’s pulling back from all-time highs.

As always, it could somehow recover right along with silver (update due later).

However, using proxy Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX), it has already printed an outside down weekly bar after posting a decade-long, new high:

That translates to ‘not good’ for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation)

Freeport McMoRan, FCX, Weekly & Daily

Price action appears to be reversing or at least testing the resistance (blue) line; attempting to see if that line has now become support.

Moving in closer, we see the outside down weekly bar that has entered ‘back into the range’; just touching the Resistance/Support area.

If we get even closer and look at the daily, price action’s back in the trading range (bearish) and has also posted a divergent MACD (bearish).

Looking at the charts, we’re at The Danger Point®

This is the place where the market makes its decision (not advice, not a recommendation).

Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation … or … ‘X-Flation’

It’s interesting, but then again not, watching so-called experts pretend they have it figured out:

It’s inflation or stagflation or whatever.

How about the possibility of ‘non-of-the-above’?

The past four years have put us into a new construct, a new paradigm.

Before the 1970s, nobody even knew that ‘stagflation’ existed. It had never happened before.

So, what new construct is going to emerge (and be given a name) that has never happened before?

That’s the question.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279