Category Archives: Interest Rates

Carvana Whacked … Down 9%

January 28, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Watch The Fed Announcement

The last update on Carvana did not see how it was going higher but gave a potential price target, anyway.

At the same time, that update said:

“Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).“

As of this post, CVNA has accelerated lower, penetrating support levels; that puts it in (minor) ‘spring’ position.

It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Top of Channel

January 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Leave a comment

Catalyst, Tomorrow?

Is the S&P about to blow-up in a downside reversal or breakout into a blow-off top?

This link does a good job covering the current situation.

The catalyst or ‘excuse’ for either scenario may happen at the Fed announcement, tomorrow (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bond Short … Ever

January 12, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT 5 Comments

What’s Next?

With only 265 views as of this post, you would expect news like this to be everywhere.

Not willing to take a data point of only one, putting in the question of TLT short interest, yields this, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Builders Higher … How Long?

January 11, 2026 By in Bonds, DHI, HD, Interest Rates, LEN, LOW, PHM

Bear Market Bounces

Home builders, and home improvement stores (HD, LOW), were up across the board on a policy announcement to support the housing sector.

Of the top three (market cap) builders, DHI, LEN, PHM, Lennar (LEN) has the weakest price action as we’ll see below.

On this site, we’re interested first, in the strategic position of the market; then, second, the tactical opportunity for a directional move.

Thirdly, is the focus part. There’s no ‘diversification’ but a zeroing into what price action says maybe the best opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Strategic Position

The ‘Residential Construction’ sector topped-out way back in October, of 2024.

As of Friday’s close, even ending the week +10.2% higher, it’s still down (from all-time highs) -18.29%

Lennar Corp LEN, Quarterly

Looking at the long-term view.

The chart says it all.

Lennar looks ready for ‘implosion’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

High Yield Breakdown

November 3, 2025 By in Bonds, HYG, Interest Rates 2 Comments

Is This It?

If there’s trouble, high yield bonds typically break down (rates higher) early in the cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the chart of ETF sector fund HYG, that’s what we have.

A rising, terminating wedge, then break to the downside.

High Yield, HYG, Daily

The magenta arrow shows pre-market trading (as of 7:55 a.m., EST), significantly lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Bonds Spike

September 28, 2025 By in Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, TLT 1 Comment

Kickoff Move?

Does the TLT bond reversal, signal the kick-off for the markets?

In one of Ed Dowd’s many interviews, he said to watch the bond market for clues to when the rest of the market(s) could reverse.

The chart of long bond proxy TLT, shows us we’ve just had a wedge breakout and possibly a test.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

If it’s a sustainable reversal, expectation is for the upside to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that also means capital is (potentially) moving away from equities; so far, doing it under the radar.

Until there’s a big break.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rate Cut … Now, What?

September 17, 2025 By in Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, Michael Bordenaro, Positions, ShadowStats, SPBIO, XBI

Think, ‘Outside The Herd’

Michael Bordenaro, spells out the current jobs situation from a ‘boots on the ground’ perspective, link here.

From the video and comments, the agreement seems to be, unemployment is much higher than 5%.

Of course, if one is interested, more accurate job numbers (and inflation numbers) are at this link.

Separately, it appears that biotech XBI, has made a triple-top (not advice, not a recommendation).

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakout or Breakdown … Biotech

September 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, MyStrategicForecast, Positions, QQQ, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, XBI 2 Comments

‘Winds of Change‘

The last update said, XBI presented the ‘best (index) short opportunity’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

With the SPY and Qs, still grinding higher, XBI is absent, having topped four days ago.

It’s not necessarily the top per se, but the XBI location in the overall market.

While the major indices are just now reaching all-time highs, biotech XBI, posted all-time highs years ago.

Four and a half years, to be more precise.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today’s action can be considered as a ‘test’ of the attempted (possibly failed) breakout.

There’s ‘evidence of a struggle’ and XBI is not (at this time) moving higher.

Adding to that, we have what’s been referred to as ‘Kabuki Theater‘ coming up at 2:00 p.m., EST, tomorrow).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds & Brokers … Reversal

September 8, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-07, IBKR, IBKR-25-01, Interest Rates, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SCHW-25-01, SPY, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Well, Except for HOOD

Long bonds TLT, have launched higher four consecutive sessions; yields lower.

Two major brokers, Schwab and Interactive, appear to have tested (or, are testing) their Friday breakdown.

Robinhood bucked the trend, closing at all-time highs.

That puts HOOD, in potential Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ (reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P did not post new highs. Last Friday’s all-time high, remains intact.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s ‘Terminating’ Wedge

September 6, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-04, Interest Rates, Positions, Semiconductors

Along With, ‘Throw-Over’

Once again, we’re at the edge of the (price action) lake where the risk of being wrong, is least.

Delta’s at the extreme, contacting the terminating wedge, then backing off, returning into the pattern.

As action progressed higher from April lows, the amount of thrust (Force-Index) continues to erode.

Delta DAL, Weekly

Now that (nearly) everyone’s got what they wanted, higher unemployment, so rates can be lowered, the show’s about to start.

The ‘hand-wringing’ has already begun, link here and here.

Two sectors typically hit hard during an economic downturn, are semiconductors and aviation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279