Life Insurance Index
The expectation for Monday, is some version of a lower open and lower close.
If that does not happen, then we’re not in the wedge, trend, breakdown as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Will ‘Inflation’ Hit The Actuaries?
Since no-one tells the truth anymore, why not have ‘inflation’ be the excuse for the ‘excess‘ surge in mortality.
A surge that’s likely to result in wholesale changes to the actuaries (not a forecast).
Life insurance, a boring industry; nothing (unexpected) ever happens, until now.
As shown at this link, it’s all about to change.
Previously discussed here, life insurance could be the biggest ‘under the radar’ event for the year (not advice, not a recommendation).
Going back to the link, it had this to say:
“We may find out as early as next session, if MET is in a downtrend or spring position, ready to move higher … “
From that point, MET indeed launched off the spring set-up. Then, it posted an upthrust, a repeating pattern.
MetLife MET, Daily
The spring was generated off of the earnings release that progressed into the up-thrust set-up.
The result was a decisive outside-down bar on May 20th.
Note the dashed grey trendline; currently declining at approximately -70%, annualized.
To Short or Not
Everyone has their own risk tolerance.
From a personal standpoint, I have no plans to short MET directly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Instead, it could be a proxy for ‘unexpected events’ coming to light about a sector which up to now, has been ignored.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Biggest, Of All?
Just like the Nat-Gas reversal, which is now on-going, Life Insurance may be the biggest downside sleeper of all (not advice, not a recommendation).
Searching the YouTube vortex, turns up this, on the largest cap of the sector; Met Life, MET (time stamp 2:27).
It’s the usual suspects. Another (almost) knee-jerk, ‘buy-the-dip’.
Let’s take a look at what’s really happening with Life Insurance, looking at the long-term view.
Life Insurance Sector, Weekly Close
The last major melt-down during ’07 – ’09, had the index collapse over 76%
Moving to the topping action highlighted in the zoom area, we have the following:
Then, on to the largest cap in the sector, our chief cook and bottle washer, Met Life (MET), there’s this:
We may find out as early as next session, if MET is in a downtrend or spring position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation)
The chart nuance advocating against a viable spring is the reduced upside volume on Friday when compared to a day earlier; up volume contracts 46%, when compared to downside volume on Thursday.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
‘Fraud’ Is The Narrative
Here’s the latest news (as of 2:03 p.m., EST), link here.
Note, the article says the shares ‘tumbled’ … hardly, it’s a crash … take a look at the chart, link here.
The life insurance sector, and more specifically Globe Life (GL) along with Met Life (MET), have been on the watch list for reasons discussed many times on this site.
The Biotech Link
Possibly related (correlated) to the life insurance industry is biotech.
We’ll discuss that sector, XBI, in an upcoming update. The synopsis is that XBI could make a brief new daily high today (or at the open tomorrow).
If so, it could put the sector in a minor up-thrust position, while still in an overall down trend.
More later.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Is The Fear Exhausted?
It’s a confusing time.
Semiconductors with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, seem to be reversing. Other sectors like biotech and mid-caps were never part of the mania.
Add to that, biotech and life insurance may be correlated (more on that, in another update).
As the market looks to pivot lower, bonds are also pivoting lower or at least under pressure.
In response, one can say there’s been sort of a panic into the mining sector GDX, GDXJ; like it’s somehow more safe there.
Let’s see if the miners really are the safe-space.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
As the chart shows (as of 12:35 p.m., EST), we’re pushing into known resistance (blue line) at the 37.00, area.
There’s also a Fibonacci time frame. Today is ‘Day 55’, from the December 22nd high.
Not only are we at Day 55 from the 12/22/23 high, but we’re also at Day 21, from the February 13th, lows.
Essentially, GDXJ is about to post a Wyckoff up-thrust condition, the area for potential downside reversal.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 