Category Archives: Positions

Set-Ups That Repeat

September 5, 2023 By in David Weis, Positions, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two Years Later

The on-going short position via SOXS has been maintained (with a new stop) and here’s why.

Just over two years ago was this post.

There are certain behaviors that markets tend to repeat; what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring to up thrust’, is one of those.

Looking at the 30-minute chart of SOXX, that’s what we have today, … just barely.

What happened this session in the SOXX may be the last move upward before a sustained reversal.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

This morning, the SOXX penetrates prior 30-minute lows and sets-up a minor ‘spring’.

Price action then moves higher to just barely exceed the prior session highs for the ‘up-thrust’.

Then we have a retreat in the SOXX, effectively confirming that what just happened was a Wyckoff spring to up-thrust.

This is where sustainable reversals tend to occur.

Positioning

The previous Hard Stop of SOXS 8.97, is adjusted by two ticks to 8.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation is for a SOXX downside (SOXS higher) reversal from this point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘The Economy Is Strong’

September 5, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Speck, UNG

… And Other Lies

It’s been a busy pre-market session; currently, 8:48 a.m., EST.

At yesterday’s evening open of the nat-gas futures (NGV23), it was decided to exit the UNG, position in the Tuesday pre-market, at the earliest possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

That exit was completed @ UNG 6.74

With that done, the focus tuned to the semiconductors.

Early this session (we’re still in the pre-market), the short position was increased via SOXS. Hard Stop remains at SOXS 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘Strong Economy’ Backdrop

All of this positioning is taking place in the middle of a storm of propaganda.

It’s non-stop; every day, another pile of lies.

For just a hint of truth, check the links here and here.

U.S. food distributor stockpiles are dwindling rapidly (reference links above and more on that channel).

The big corporations are already getting ready for the next ‘We’re all in this together’, planned event as The Speck attempts to make its return.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Positioned At The Extremes

September 2, 2023 By in 1929, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Mass Psychosis, Natural Gas, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, UNG

‘Evidence Of A Struggle’

To minimize risk, you need to position at the psychological extreme.

That’s not necessarily the top or bottom of a move, but it could be.

At Opposite Ends

From a trading standpoint, this past week saw a lot of activity.

Trades entered, exited, some re-entered, some, not.

The net result was two positions in separate, non-correlated markets.

One was shorting the SOXX, via SOXS, the other, adding to longs in Natural Gas via UNG (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fake, Fraud & Thought Shaping

By far the main hysteria is in AI, and its cohort, the semiconductors, SOXX.

From my first trade way back in the spring of ’87, to now, I’ve never seen a mass psychosis mania, fueled by propaganda, lies and made-up numbers, like this.

One can only guess where or when the shoe will drop that starts the whole (mind-shaping) scheme unraveling.

Evidence Of A Struggle

When price action pushes above or below established resistance or support, it’s at The Danger Point®

When that happens, depending on the action itself, the risk of being wrong (on an opposing position) is lowest.

The SOXX may be there now.

Semiconductor SOXX, Hourly Chart

It’s clear, a battle’s going on between bulls and bears at resistance (blue line).

Just before, during, or just after a holiday week tend to be pivot points in the market.

Said many times on this site, the most famous of these was September 3rd, 1929, the Tuesday following the Labor Day Weekend.

That was the all-time high, just before the crash.

Positioning

There are two positions open, each with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation)

Long UNG; Hard Stop @ 6.93

Long SOXS (short SOXX): Hard Stop @ 8.97

Now, we wait.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The End For AI?

September 1, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Positions, SOXS, SOXX

Failing Breakout & Fibonacci

Could AI, become a Dog?

That’s not saying AI, ‘identifies’ as a dog, but AI becomes a market dog, a massive underperformer.

You know, like Intel 🙂

Yesterday’s update said to be on the lookout for a reversal.

The SOXX, was struggling to move above resistance and if it failed, we’re likely to head lower from here (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture (11:40 a.m., EST) the SOXX, posted a new daily high but is currently trading below yesterday’s close.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart shows the struggle to get above the resistance area (blue line).

The chart also shows we’re at a Fibonacci 89 Days, from the low set on April 27th, to now.

Positioning

The initial position from yesterday was exited in the pre-market as SOXS touched the 9.05, Stop Level.

After the open, it was obvious we may have hit the SOXS lows (at 8.97) and are now going to move higher.

Re-entered at SOXS 9.19, with Hard Stop at session lows of SOXS 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

From ‘Hype’ to ‘Opportunity’

August 31, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

What A Difference A Day Makes

Update: 9:50 a.m., EST

Exited SOXS @ Stop 9.05, then re-entered after the open at 9.19.

Hard Stop @ Session Low 8.97 (not advice, not a recommendation)

SOXX, price action pushed above well-established resistance and so far, has failed to hold.

After hours has the SOXX, trading down -2.45-pts. (as of 7:30 p.m., EST) which gives us a hint there may be a new daily low at the next session.

If so, it’s a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, a reversal, with significant potential for downside.

Positioning

Already short this sector via SOXS with hard stop at the session low of SOXS 9.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

If Real Estate Goes …

August 30, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, Federal Reserve, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS

Then, Everything Goes

‘Professionals don’t look for the challenge, they look for the money’, Dr. Alexander Elder

Right now, the ‘challenge’ is AI; bull or bear, who’s right?

We even have a bearish article out on SeekingAlpha. That means, the sector will probability go higher from here. 🙂

I wrote for SeekingAlpha years ago; had tens-of-thousands of views on my work; was somehow, never paid a dime.

The editors eventually told me, identifying potential market turns to-the-day, was “not suitable” (that’s a real quote) for their readers … so, there’s that.

Follow The (Nat-Gas) Money

Meanwhile, a potential significant reversal was identified in Nat-Gas, link here. So far, it’s progressing under the radar.

Entries have been made in UNG, at 6.64, 6.75, 6.86, 6.89, with a hard stop moved up to UNG 6.71 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we have a potential reversal in Real Estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Price action’s now at Fibonacci Day 8, from the low on August 21st. In addition, it’s at the 50%, retrace level from the high on July 27, to the aforementioned low.

We’re in a high, potentially, soon to be much higher, interest rate environment.

The (Interest Rate) Black Swan

The general public and investing professionals alike, think as the economy tanks, the Fed will lower rates.

It’s a widely and strongly held belief. After all, it’s always worked that way.

What if it doesn’t happen this time.

The economy tanks and rates move even higher?

it’s a possibility to consider.

Positioning

As one might guess, I’m already short this sector via DRV (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entries were made yesterday and today at DRV 48.42, and 47.66 respectively.

Hard Stop, is at the session low of DRV 47.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Bag Holders’

August 25, 2023 By in Artificial Intelligence, Natural Gas, Positions, SOXX, UNG 1 Comment

‘We Need A New Story’

The mainstream has run out of hype; at least for now.

Their AI mania narrative and price action blew up yesterday.

The probability for a blow-up was identified ahead of time, here.

Who knows how many retail investors bought in, now, left holding the bag.

The more probable (overall market) outcome at this point, is sustained, persistent, downside … possibly for years if not decades (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, not every market is going to go straight down. Some, might actually go higher.

Natural Gas & The ‘Disruption’ Trade

One of those upside probabilities highlighted in this update was Nat-Gas.

From that update we have:

“If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.”

Nine trading days later, that’s exactly what happened.

The original chart of UNG, has been updated to show subsequent price action.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

When price action penetrated support (lower blue line), it puts UNG at The Danger Point®

This is where the risk of being wrong for a long position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Taking the above into account, with downside risk potentially minimized, two entries were made during this session (currently, 1:21 p.m., EST).

One at UNG 6.64, and another larger entry at UNG 6.75.

An obvious Hard Stop is yesterday’s low of UNG 6.49, with a Soft Stop (trader discretion) at today’s low of UNG 6.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Setting-Up for Tomorrow

August 22, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Anything Can Happen

Yes … anything can happen but what’s the most likely thing?

At this juncture, based on price action so far (as of 11:38 a.m., EST), the SOXX looks like it will penetrate the blue line resistance tomorrow or the day after (not advice, not a recommendation).

That penetration should it happen, will set-up a potential reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) condition.

Exactly how that action will take place is unknown. Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to release earnings tomorrow after the close.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart shows a potential target area.

The target is right in the vicinity of a 50%, retrace from the reversal high (7/31/23), to the low, set last Friday the 18th.

Positioning

Based on the behavior of price action during the last session, it was clear for the short term, higher action in SOXX and lower action in SOXS was probable

With that, even though the stop of SOXS 9.93 was not hit (as it was today), a discretionary exit was made at SOXS 10.51, which yielded about +8.4% on the trade.

Next Steps

On the sidelines for now (not advice, not a recommendation) and watching closely.

It seems the mania has increased all the more even though we’re past the top on the SOXX.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Pivots Down … Again

August 18, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

New, Sharper, Downtrend?

Has the semiconductor SOXX, sent us a signal that’s it’s in a new steeper, downtrend?

The last update said probabilities favored continued downside for SOXX (upside for SOXS).

If there’s been a more aggressive pivot down, that trend looks like it’s being tested during today’s session.

We’re about two hours before the close; both the SOXX and its inverse SOXS, are posting reversal bars.

If the reversal’s going to be confirmed, there needs to be follow-through. That means, the next session (Monday) is the important one.

Since I am maintaining short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation), we’ll look at that position using the leveraged inverse SOXS.

Semiconductor Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Daily

The original trendline is shown from the prior update.

The dashed line is a potential new more aggressive trend.

If Monday opens gap-higher for SOXS (lower for SOXX), and then posts a new daily high, it’s a potential confirmation of that new trend.

Positioning.

Short via SOXS remains intact.

Hard Stop has been moved to SOXS 9.93 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AI Fails To ‘Follow-Through’

August 15, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 2 Comments

Where’s The Continued Upside?

If it’s a screaming bull market and not a potential reversal, after yesterday’s SOXX launch, you’d expect more upside.

After all, we’ve brought out the big guns for added ‘credibility’:

Dan Loeb, David Tepper, and Paul Tudor Jones piled into Nvidia stock last quarter – and other elite investors joined them

Throw on top, the promise of massive IT budgets:

AI set to unleash an unprecedented wave of spending.

Well, with all of that, we must hike our price target:

NVDA Stock Alert

The hysteria increases ever more when we read, NVDA could move the entire market … just days from now.

That part may actually be true but not the way anybody thinks. 🙂

So, let’s move past the mee-too-ism and focus on what the price action’s actually doing.

You know, like looking at reality.

Semiconductor Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Daily

The short position via SOXS remains intact so the focus is on the SOXS daily time frame (not advice, not a recommendation).

As is typical with the markets, it can be read both ways.

Today’s action was higher (lower for SOXX) but there was no new SOXS daily high.

At the same time, it looks like a trend is being confirmed.

Positioning

Taking the recent analysis all-together, links here, here, here, here, especially here, I’m going with the SOXS trend confirmation.

That is, Inverse Fund SOXS to move higher with Sector Fund SOXX lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop remains at SOXS 9.42.

However, we now have a Soft Stop (trader discretion) @ SOXS 9.93 (yesterday’s low).

Tomorrow’s session has the Fed meeting minutes released at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279