Category Archives: SOXX

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading Intel’s Downside

December 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Semiconductors, SOXX

Will Today be a Test?

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

With the overall semiconductor index higher in the pre-market, it’s possible INTC could use today to grind its way higher into a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart shows we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal), then a -7.45% drop (ease-of-movement) to minor support levels.

intel INTC, Daily

The blue-line, resistance, is also the 50% retrace from highs of January 2020 to the lows of April, this year.

The objective is to see if the range narrows (upside) between yesterday’s low and high, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the pre-market (7:40 a.m., EST), INTC is trading slightly higher (+0.46) pts).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s Downside Channel

December 1, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

If, The Bubble Has Burst …

The case is building for Nvidia’s downside reversal; this morning’s pre-market action, is no exception (not advice not a recommendation).

With the caveat that anything can happen, we have in the chart below, nascent confirmation(s) of a downside channel.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Within the channel, we’re also in Wyckoff Spring position (testing support), ready to move higher.

However, springs can fail.

If Nivida opens lower in the regular session (currently, 8:05 a.m., EST), ‘normal’ market behavior is an attempt to close the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Watch

November 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Carvana, as Well

It’s possible by the close of the day, both SOXX, and CVNA, will be in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

As of this post (11:10 a.m., EST), the SOXX is literally screaming higher … but still below resistance levels.

As for Carvana, the 332.33 level has been discussed many times, link here and here.

A close above that level puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Comments’ for The Week

November 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Comments, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

Progression of Thought

The following links are a summary of market related comments (made on other channels or platforms) for the week.

This past week has been interesting, with potential kick-off, of the A.I. implosion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tuesday

The crash of 1899 was in December. So, it’s happened before … (link here).

Wednesday

Tomorrow will (likely) be an interesting day. For the SOXX, a move above or around 294 – 296, will likely take out the shorts. (link here)

Thursday

Nvidia has already peaked (October 29th). Today’s action was a ‘test’ of that reversal. Watch to see if NVDA closes lower for the day. (link here)

Summary

The SOXX, never made it to the target range. Highest print for last Thursday, was 289.99; then, it collapsed.

Nvidia action for that day looked like a test; then closed lower for the day … then lower again, the next day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Big Short’ Burry, Closes Fund

November 14, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-16, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Signs of A (The) Top

Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.

The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).

Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.

NVDA, CVNA & Biotech

With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)

Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next up, is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.

Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.

So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?

The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.

Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.

Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Call

November 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Thoughtful Money

‘So, It Begins’

“Incredibly Dangerous”; the tagline on the last update for semiconductors, A.I. and the SOXX, link here.

The chart for the SOXX, showed a measured move, to the 320-area.

It never made it.

After-hours on October 29th, the SOXX high was 313, exactly.

Conversely, the high for Nvidia, same day, was 212.19 which rounds to 212.2. It’s all just a ‘concidence’. 🙂

Old Spin & New Spin

Just like that, the press has thrown out the old propaganda and ushered in the new.

Now, it’s an ‘implosion’, link here and here.

As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.

That’s the ‘implosion’?

Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX’s Wedge Launch Higher

October 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17

Incredibly Dangerous

Is it going to play out exactly as Bert Dohmen said it would?

That is, grinding ‘window dressing’ action higher, toward the end of the year?

With last night’s upside and higher open, the SOXX has negated the reversal and has posted something else.

It’s in the chart below, a ‘terminating wedge’.

Semiconductors SOXX, 2-Day

The 2-Day chart is a better view of the pattern.

A wedge typically occurs near the end of the move whether it’s up or down.

The pattern above, implies that Nvidia has one more last gasp (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next earnings release is scheduled for November 19th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Nvidia Crater by 90%?

October 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CSCO, Ed Dowd, MRNA, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17, Thoughtful Money

Sell & Hold

During an interview with Thoughtful Money (link here), Ed Dowd says this about the A.I. bubble:

‘When it’s all said and done, Nvidia will be down by 80% – 90%’

This morning, the SOXX just printed a new daily high. Does that mean the reversal has been negated?

That depends on what happens next.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We have the all time high and up-thrust. Then, the trend break (yesterday), and now the test.

Obviously, there’s a lot of volatility.

If this is ‘the’ reversal of the A. I. mania, possibly the largest bubble in market history, then action like this, is ‘normal’. 🙂

Just like Cisco Networks was chief cook and bottle washer back in the day, this time, it’s Nvidia.

When it was all said and done, CSCO declined over -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Did The SOXX (and A.I.) Just Top?

October 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17 4 Comments

While Everyone’s Watching The Metals

Yesterday, the metals and miners imploded.

While all the focus was on them, back at the ranch, the SOXX reached another top.

Last time we looked, the index had an apparent Fibonacci count that has since been negated.

Robert Prechter said it himself decades ago, ‘price action form is first, then time’.

The SOXX then went on to post a new all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note yesterday’s bar posted a new daily low after the all-time high.

As the SOXX, oscillated in a narrow range, it became apparent we may be at a significant inflection; three separate shorts were opened, combined into one position as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (7:55 a.m., EST), shows the SOXX trading at 288.09, below yesterday’s low of 289.22.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279