Category Archives: SOXX

SOXX Top, Gap-Fill

March 25, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-26-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Checklist Complete?

The SOXX closed above resistance, discussed in previous updates, here, here, and here.

This is The Danger Point®, where we have an instability.

Price action needs to decide if that was it for the upside or if somehow, we’re on to new all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, today was Day 21 from the February 25th, all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We have the following technical conditions:

Penetration above established resistance levels.

Fibonacci 21-Days, from all-time highs.

Fibonacci 13-Days, from the March 9th low.

Fibonacci 61.8% retrace on print basis and 50% retrace on close basis.

With that said, SOXX sold short; trade SOXX-26-01, stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tomfoolery, Between Sessions

March 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Genesis 41, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Navigating Through The Fray

First, it was Monday’s pre-market spike on (so-called) news of on-going ‘negotiations‘, which the other side says, didn’t happen.

Then, today, just after the close we have another spike on reports of a ceasefire.

While we’re at it, let’s add this into the mix, link here.

That last datapoint and maybe more like it to come, could be the real problem on a go-forward basis (not advice, not a recommendation).

With all that said, the ‘spikes’ are helping to inch the SOXX higher. Tomorrow is Day 21, from all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

We’re posting a segment of price action to show after-hours trading is higher, very near the blue resistance line.

A significant print above that line at the next session, would put the SOXX in up-thrust (potential reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, in a ‘Coil’

March 23, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Last Gasp, Gap Fill?

It’s not unrealistic to say, there’s a struggle going on in the SOXX.

The last update showed the potential failure of gap-close attempts, link here.

Today’s action so far, looks like another battle to post into that area (not advice, not a recommendation).

The level to watch, is from March 11th, at 342.09.

A close significantly above, puts the SOXX, in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 2 Comments

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Capitulation, and Kick-Off

March 6, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Semiconductors, SOXX

What, Was That?

The semiconductor SOXX, ETF just had its largest ever, weekly downward thrust energy.

The last time it got close, was the downside ‘capitulation’ back in early April, last year.

Other than those two events, there’s never been a similar extreme going all the way back to July of 2001.

Semiconductors ETF, SOXX, Weekly

As the note says, it’s unknown if this is an actual kick-off to a sustained downside.

With such an historic print lower, ‘normal’ market behavior is for some kind of upside testing next week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, in the various Ed Dowd interviews, his comments to the effect:

‘When this thing (A.I. mania) starts to unravel, it’s going to happen quickly’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Reversal & Retrace (so far)

March 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, SOXX

What’s Next?

The price segment at left, shows the SOXX reversing from all-time highs, lower into minor support, then retrace.

That move is in line with the Nvidia reversal on its earnings release.

As we’ve heard many times (Ed Dowd, Ox Talks and others), just the hint of slowing sales may be enough to kick off a sustained downside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is ‘Day 5’ from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

At The Edge …

February 6, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, TXN, TXN-26-02, TXN-26-03 1 Comment

Stretched, at All-Time Highs

We’re looking for The Danger Point®, where the risk (of being wrong) is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

This method applies to going long as well as short:

Buy or sell (short) at the edge.

Looking at the chart of Texas Instruments, you’ll have to judge for yourself if we’re at that edge.

Texas Instruments TXN, Daily Close (12:37 p.m., EST)

Using the data from yesterday’s update, link here, we’re at a point that could get very interesting.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

TXN … Dotcom Then, A.I., Now

February 5, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Michael Bordenaro, Semiconductors, SOXX, TXN, TXN-26-02 2 Comments

Once, in a Generation

Michael Bordenaro’s latest update, had this in the comment section (paraphrasing):

‘It’s likely, few people realize how far this is going to go, and how long it’s going to last.’

With that said, we’ll look at a once-in-a-generation event, Texas Instruments.

Not since the height of the dot-com mania, has there been a repeat of the indicator shown below.

Texas Instruments TXN, Monthly

Two massive Force Index spikes, a generation apart.

In the dotcom mania, the spike was not the top; that came a month later.

For the A.I. mania, TXN posted its spike last month (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading Intel’s Downside

December 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Semiconductors, SOXX

Will Today be a Test?

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

With the overall semiconductor index higher in the pre-market, it’s possible INTC could use today to grind its way higher into a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart shows we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal), then a -7.45% drop (ease-of-movement) to minor support levels.

intel INTC, Daily

The blue-line, resistance, is also the 50% retrace from highs of January 2020 to the lows of April, this year.

The objective is to see if the range narrows (upside) between yesterday’s low and high, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the pre-market (7:40 a.m., EST), INTC is trading slightly higher (+0.46) pts).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279