Category Archives: SOXX

A.I., By The ‘Numbers’

October 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-16 1 Comment

Fibonacci ‘Day 8’

Don’t look now, but today is Fibonacci ‘Day 8’, from the SOXX high, on October 6th.

Let’s also include the panic low last Friday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from that same top.

Of course, the Fibonacci count does not guarantee anything. It just lets us know so far, the SOXX is respecting the sequence.

Then we have the chart.

Last Friday was possibly the largest ever, downward thrust energy for the SOXX (data back to October 2019).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the thrust energy ‘bookends’.

Not covered in this update, is the condition of A.I., ‘leader’, Nvidia.

There’s so much going on with that one. 🙂

After an attempted breakout during the past twelve trading days, it’s now lower, back in the trading range (bearish).

It’s also established a nascent downtrend line (bearish).

Today’s open was above yesterday’s high. As of this post (11:53 a.m., EST), it looks ready to print a new daily low.

If that happens, it’s ‘outside down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX Test?

October 8, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX

Test, Downside, or Reversal

Pre-market trading in the SOXX (as of 7:08 a.m., EST), looks different from other recent downside action.

Typically, in the overnight session, bids come in and launch the SOXX upward; yet another bear trap move.

This time, so far, it’s not happening.

There may be a change of character.

If that’s true, and the SOXX is about to continue its downside action, one of the following is likely.

  1. There’s a weak retrace to either 23.6%, or 38.2%
  2. A small blip higher in the early session, then reversal, new daily low
  3. An ‘inside’ narrow range day

Of course, none of the above could be the result as well.

Currently, the SOXX is trading at 282.92, slightly above yesterday’s close.

Note the Fed minutes release at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking System’s ‘Old Maid’

October 1, 2025 By in Banking, Daniela Cambone, DIA, DIA-25-05, Ed Dowd, Financial Sector, KBE, KBE-25-01, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, XLF, XLF-25-07 2 Comments

Where Is It?

As Ed Dowd says in this interview (time stamp: 19:16), somebody in the banking system’s holding The Old Maid.

As the overall markets continue to form what looks to be a top, maybe ‘the’ top, a process of (trade) iteration is occurring.

The objective is to determine which sector is the most vulnerable.

Short positions in the Dow and the SOXX have both been stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

With implosion of Tricolor Auto and now First Brands, the market itself is telling us, look at financial sector(s).

With that said, short positions have been opened in XLF, and KRE; both of which so far, are holding below their early session highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Top & Test

September 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

The Big One?

If it really is the ‘big one’, we won’t know until it’s over.

What is known, the SOXX posted an all-time high yesterday.

Today, it posted a new daily low and then immediately began a retrace higher (to test).

That’s where we are now. The test has (so far) posted all the way up to a 61.8%, retrace.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

We’re in close on the action with the 30-minute chart.

Of course, while all this is going on, the major distraction (this time around) is the ‘shutdown‘.

Separately, the Dow (DIA) posted a new daily low. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX at The Top

September 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Did The Bubble (just) Pop?

The SOXX, closed lower yesterday and is down again, in today’s pre-market.

If we’re in a sustainable reversal, volume provided the clue.

As with Carvana, SOXX volume in the last session increased substantially from the day prior.

Lower close, higher volume, increasing pressure.

In pre-market, SOXX continues to drop as we speak. Is this the ‘gap-down’ Bert Dohmen talked about? Link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

We’re in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition. Pre-market action says it’s a draw-down, best case.

Worst case (for the bulls) is that we’re at the top … and it’s a long way down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Falls in Hole

September 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-24-14, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-07, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Trading Below Support

Carvana spent three days hovering above support.

Yesterday, trading started above support, then, ended below.

Adding to that, price action was down on double volume from the prior session.

Volume study is part of Wyckoff analysis. It typically does not get attention as it’s boring, generating no ‘clicks’.

The increase in volume suggested pressure’s building to the downside.

Based on that, a (small) short was opened yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Short position is being maintained; stop to be moved at the end of this session to the day’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

From the ‘notes’ discussion on yesterday’s post, the WMT position was stopped out (at essentially break-even) early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action looks like a secondary test of the reversal.

However, from a preference standpoint, the focus is on CVNA … and the SOXX.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Psychotic’ Market

September 13, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 4 Comments

Pivot Point

The first 17:43-minutes at this link, describes the market’s mental condition and that of its unwitting participants.

Even though the language used is different (contains profanity), it’s essentially the same thing echoed by Bert Dohmen at this update.

They’re both saying a ‘break’ is coming.

This time around however, when it happens, it won’t be anything like we’ve ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trades Only (so far)

Question:

When’s the best time to refine short trade skills?

Answer:

When you don’t have to. 🙂

We’re coming up on two-years of short-selling as presented on this site.

The real (sustained) breakdown has yet to happen. All the while, short expertise is being honed.

With that, let’s look at the latest (potential) short-trade candidate.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

We’ve had seven consecutive higher closes.

Was that it, or will Monday, be a Fibonacci eight?

The last time there were as many consecutive higher closes, was from 2/10, to 2/20, this year.

That time, it was eight higher closes, kicking off a -36.5%, decline in less than eight weeks.

The ‘Pattern’

As shown, we have the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Volume Clues

September 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Inflection Point

We’re right at the top of resistance.

It looks like volume is sending us a message.

But what?

The increase in volume is (potentially) either absorption of sellers, getting ready to move higher, or distribution with the ‘manipulators’ holding up the SOXX, so that sell, and sell-short positions are opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, it looks like something’s about to happen.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

A new daily high, points probability to the upside; new low, the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Hovers at Highs

September 11, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Mid-Air

This could be all there is for the SOXX.

If price action can’t continue higher from here, we could have a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279