Category Archives: SPBIO

Biotech: Now, It Gets Interesting

May 28, 2021 By in Biotech, David Weis, LABD, SPBIO 5 Comments

1:39 p.m., EST

Retrace to 23.6%, rejected.

Shallow retrace indicates severe weakness.

Sustained downside potential.

The inverted chart of SPBIO above, shows price action has touched the 23.6%, level and is reversing.

The next chart has yet another Wyckoff spring set-up … equivalent to a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ on the regular, non-inverted chart.

Inverse fund LABD, is current trading at 22.77 – 22.83; far away from the session low at 21.77.

On a 4-Hour basis, the current bar has posted a new high.

The high for the morning session came at the open; 23.05

That high was exceeded when the next 4-hour bar posted at 23.10.

Why is that important?

It weights the probability to the upside for LABD.

That in turn weights probability we’ve seen the last of the downward corrective moves for LABD.

If so, we’re positioned for a major decline in biotech SPBIO.

If not, we’ve got an absolute hard-stop @ LABD 21.77 (not advice, not a recommendation)

At this point, it’s time to “Set the stop and walk away” as David Weis put it in his video.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: The Next Four Hours

May 28, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

8:58 a.m., EST

The past 48 hours have closed lower for inverse, LABD.

The next four hours may be the key

Using the four-hour chart allows us to break each trading session into two parts (morning, afternoon) as shown above.

Doing this gives us a cleaner picture of what’s happening from a thrust energy perspective.

Thrust energy is a relative number: (Net distance)*(Volume)

The obvious part in the chart, thrust energy is rapidly dissipating as price nears the support area (blue line).

This action could be a secondary test of the spring set-up that has been discussed over the last week or so.

Secondary tests do happen but not that often.

At this juncture in the pre-market, LABD is set to open slightly lower; possibly opening right at the support line.

If time permits, another update will be generated after the morning session (the first four-hours) is complete.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Lower, Lower … Weaker, Weaker

May 27, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Positions, Project Stimulus, SPBIO

6:37 p.m., EST

Inverse biotech LABD, closes lower (again).

All is not what is seems.

Down-thrust energy diverging.

The daily close of LABD, shows price action has penetrated another (lower) support level.

Close below support on the weakest down-thrust energy (and lowest volume) since LABD, started its corrective move on May 14th.

Everyone has their own preferred time-frame. Ours is probably longer than most.

If there’s going to be a meltdown in biotech or some kind of serious correction lower, a likely bottom for a sustained move (as said before) will be where they usually are … the third week of October.

Price action is the final arbiter. However, it (SPBIO) has not (yet) indicated it’s on a new bull run to new highs.

At this point, the market’s frustrating both longs and shorts … and doing a good job of it as well.

Our short position via LABD, is being maintained … but the finger is edging closer to the sell button; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Print & Close

May 26, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Martha Stokes, SPBIO

6:47 p.m., EST

Looking at inverse biotech LABD: Close basis.

Just a minute or two after LABD penetrated yesterday’s low, a huge block trade when by on the tape.

The trading platform used shows Level II, streaming Time & Sales with transactions color coded.

The color key is as follows:

Green, Buy

Red, Sell

Purple, Sell below bid

Yellow, Buy above ask

Grey, Transaction was (buy or sell) between the bid/ask

The large block was coded Yellow: Size 18,184 shares @ 24.2699

That equates to one trade with a value at $441,323.86 … essentially a half-million dollars.

What’s the point?

If there are too many stops at one area, trade execution is automatic. This type of behavior was detailed in a prior report, linked here.

It’s not unreasonable to think today’s action was for the purpose of allocating one trade at a half-mil. Novice traders and neophytes were used as the bait (setting their stops at yesterday’s low).

Setting the stops at that location would essentially make the computer algorithms go automatic to hit the stops (as described in the Martha Stokes’ link above).

Whoever made the block trade was willing to pay above ask so the entire transaction would be filled at once.

Looking at the 30-minute chart of LABD below, we see a near perfect descending line right into the lows of the prior session.

The first chart in this post has the actual close below support where the original forecast called it as a test.

The push below support on a print basis had occurred prior but the actual close below support (to complete the set-up) came two days later.

Here we are: Testing the spring set-up on a closing basis while potentially taking out the weak hands positioned long LABD.

It’s likely we’ll know tomorrow. If LABD price action opens higher and makes a new daily high, it’s a high reliability signal we’re under way.

If not, something else is at work … yet to be determined.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech LABD, Verifies Trend

May 26, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

11:02 a.m., EST

Trend is down for SPBIO. Up for inverse, LABD

Daily chart of LABD, below:

As long as yesterday’s low (24.19) holds, LABD’s on track for a sustained move higher.

Currently, the right side trendline contacts are four in succession.

Price action’s still holding to the forecast in this report … but it’s really putting the right side trend to the test.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen Reversal

May 25, 2021 By in AMGN, Biotech, IBB, SPBIO

12:59 p.m., EST:

Expectation for sustained AMGN, reversal.

Note: The Weekly Close chart of AMGN above, is ‘inverted’. Wyckoff analysis references are inverted as well:

Up-thrust, now becomes ‘spring’.

Sign of Supply now becomes ‘Sign of Demand’, etc.

The chart has been expanded with more detail below:

We’ve had the penetration (and close) below support. Then a reversal which indicated sign of demand.

Price action then came back to the support level for a ‘test’ and then reversed again.

Now, AMGN is at the point where the set-up is complete:

Penetrate, Close, Demand, Test, Reversal.

We’re in a high probability set-up for continued AMGN, downside.

At this point, AMGN is the No. 2, market cap equity in the IBB, biotech sector; a good proxy for biotech overall.

In a separate but similar market, SPBIO, today’s action continues to follow the forecast updated in yesterday’s report.

In that market, leveraged inverse fund LABD continues to push higher and is currently up +1.40%, for the day.

No major LABD breakout (breakdown for SPBIO), yet.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Eyes on The Prize

May 24, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The Speck 1 Comment

1:14 p.m., EST

Does it really matter where the ‘speck’ came from?

That seems to be one of the all important topics for the day.

For argument’s sake, let’s just say we find out the speck came from Dubuque, Iowa.

There, problem solved.

Does that make anyone’s life any different?

Well, maybe for those in Dubuque but probably not anywhere else.

Meanwhile, the objective of constant distraction and obfuscation has accomplished its goal; ‘missed opportunities’.

That’s what it’s all about; has been for millennia.

Who decides what goes to press anyway?

Enough said.

We’re not going to get distracted with the carnival sideshow but stay focused on shorting biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Analysis:

The overall markets are up anywhere from +0.50% – 1.50%.

On the other side, we have biotech SPBIO; down -0.65%, with leveraged inverse fund LABD, up around +3.94%.

The original forecast chart for SPBIO (hourly inverted), has been updated to show where price action is at this juncture.

We’ll include all (three) charts for an easy visual on how the short (via LABD), is progressing

Newest chart first:

Price action looks like its finished testing and is now rising into the resistance area shown as the dotted line (chart above).

Reminder: It’s a forecast and it can fail (or morph) at any time.

However, thus far price action’s adhering well to probability behavior under the ‘spring’ set-up conditions.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech, Day 55

May 21, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO

8:57 a.m., EST

Today is Fibonacci Day 55, from the SPBIO, low set on March 5th, this year.

Will price action pivot like it did last time?

Inverse biotech fund LABD, is above with price extremes noted.

Pre-market action (as of this post) shows LABD, to open at or slightly below yesterday’s low.

We’re still in the ‘Test’ as highlighted in the last update … although there isn’t much room to go before there’s trouble.

This is the way of the markets. They need to stretch to the extreme to see if it holds or breaks.

At this juncture, we’re at the danger point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech, Deep Test

May 20, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, Red Cross, SPBIO, The Speck 1 Comment

12:17 p.m., EST

Price action’s performing as expected … almost.

The forecast chart has been annotated to show where price action is now.

Biotech (SPBIO), and inverse fund LABD, are in a deep test. A little deeper than expected … but not enough to invalidate the set-up.

As of this post, price action is near the support line that’s just below the “Test” label.

Of course, the expectation is for this test to hold and for LABD to reverse back higher into the dynamic move shown; not advice, not a recommendation.

Fundamentals:

It seems like each day provides new insight into the disaster that is biotech.

This just out:

If you have been injected, The Red Cross says your blood is not wanted; your antibodies have been destroyed.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech, More Detail

May 19, 2021 By in Amandha Vollmer, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, The Speck 2 Comments

10:47 p.m., EST

First, the daily chart with the familiar trendlines

The magenta arrow shows, down-thrust has diverged. Today closed lower but thrust energy was (nearly) nonexistent.

The right side trend is still unknown.

More contact points are needed. However, inverse fund LABD has shown consistent trend angles (above) at various points throughout its sideways, corrective move.

Taking the SPBIO hourly chart and inverting, gives a more accurate picture; we see the Wyckoff set-up:

This type of price action is high probability. Not perfect, but still potentially 75% – 80%, effective or higher.

The fact that inverse tracking fund LABD accelerated upward into the close adds weight, we’re potentially at the end of the correction.

The fundamental backdrop continues to implode.

The plan for world control (through speck injected depopulation) is out in the open now. No doubt.

Amandha Vollmer has this update on the decades long, mass hypnosis.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.