Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

The ‘Psychotic’ Market

September 13, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 4 Comments

Pivot Point

The first 17:43-minutes at this link, describes the market’s mental condition and that of its unwitting participants.

Even though the language used is different (contains profanity), it’s essentially the same thing echoed by Bert Dohmen at this update.

They’re both saying a ‘break’ is coming.

This time around however, when it happens, it won’t be anything like we’ve ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trades Only (so far)

Question:

When’s the best time to refine short trade skills?

Answer:

When you don’t have to. 🙂

We’re coming up on two-years of short-selling as presented on this site.

The real (sustained) breakdown has yet to happen. All the while, short expertise is being honed.

With that, let’s look at the latest (potential) short-trade candidate.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

We’ve had seven consecutive higher closes.

Was that it, or will Monday, be a Fibonacci eight?

The last time there were as many consecutive higher closes, was from 2/10, to 2/20, this year.

That time, it was eight higher closes, kicking off a -36.5%, decline in less than eight weeks.

The ‘Pattern’

As shown, we have the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

VIX Compressed … Record Debt

August 28, 2025 By in NVDA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Waiting for The Break

The question (always) is:

‘How long can this last?’

From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.

Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re just a few minutes before the open.

We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.

Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Feeling Puny

August 26, 2025 By in David Weis, Financial Sector, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-06 1 Comment

At The Edge

The last update on Financial Sector, XLF, said it was in potential up-thrust (false breakout) condition.

Monday’s action was slightly down and today; we have a new daily low.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, all of this action is taking place below established resistance.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

We’re at the ‘edge of the lake’, as David Weis used to call it. This is where the risk of being wrong is least.

Since the market’s posted a new daily low, risk on a short position is well defined, i.e. yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short this sector as XLF-25-06, with stop in the vicinity of XLF 53.58. After the close of this session, the stop (if not exceeded) will be moved lower to the high of today’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 24, 2025 By in BAC, Federal Reserve, Financial Sector, Interest Rates, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF 1 Comment

Bank of America & XLF

It’s no secret, Warren Buffet has been selling BAC, shares for some time; more recently, here.

The hard part is, how does one map that to price action?

Or does his selling have any material effect.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we put that information in the background.

It’s there, we’re aware of it, but the focus is on price action itself.

So, let’s take a look.

BAC is a heavy weighting the in financial sector, with index tracking fund XLF, as a good vehicle for analysis.

That ETF just printed an all-time high this past Friday.

Financials XLF, Daily

Friday’s Fed announcement could be a significant infection.

Of course, the media is all aboard with a September cut, providing endless opinions on how to trade something that has not even happened.

What we’re looking for on this site, is some evidence of a reversal. We’re looking to see if price action stalls in not only the XLF, but the other major sectors as well.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Goldman, ‘Yes’ … Dow, ‘No’?

August 16, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-03, Dow 30, Goldman, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

What Does The Market Say?

According to Goldman Sachs, link here, they’re calling for continued upside.

Anything can happen.

For those on this site, the focus is not on what anybody’s saying, but what’s the market actually doing?

We’ll use the Dow 30 proxy DIA, for this update.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

Repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The Dow has been struggling each time it gets to this resistance area, since December of last year.

Friday was a gap-higher at the open, then retrace, closing below resistance (upper blue line).

From a risk on a short position, it’s clear. The stop would be last Friday’s high.

Currently short as DIA-25-03, with stop just above DIA 452.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop & Drop

August 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-11, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, ‘Day 89’

Trading legend, Richie Naso says the ‘algorithms control the market’.

He also says, they’re trained to go to technical areas.

Are they also trained to ‘count’?

Or does the count just materialize as a natural outcome of controlling the market?

Three days ago, was this post, showing a probable outcome for the SOXX.

Both time, and distance, were projected; time, as in Fibonacci Day 89, and distance as in Fibonacci projection to the 261.8% level (April 7th, lows).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 89’.

Today’s close was below yesterday’s low and below resistance (upper blue line).

The Fibonacci 261.8% projection was to (approx.) 259.

Yesterday’s high was 255.06, a difference of just 1.54%.

Currently short, as SOXX-25-11; hard stop at the session high (not advice not a recommendation).

Separately, XBI-25-01 was closed as it continued to edge higher. Today is XBI’s own ‘Day 89’ from the April 9th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The HOOD, Tests its Reversal

August 14, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-04, Positions, Retail Investor, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

The last update on HOOD, said there’s a potential trading channel, link here.

The next day, price action negated that channel with a break to the upside.

That upside now looks like a ‘spring’, leading straight into an ‘up-thrust’; a repeating pattern.

HOOD reversed from its highs and today, looks to be testing that breakdown.

Volume for this session contracted by -37.5%, when compared to yesterday.

Robinhood, HOOD, Daily

From a trading perspective, a short was opened yesterday; HOOD-25-04.

Position size was increased today as price action was rising into its test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind Games

August 12, 2025 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist 4 Comments

On A Colossal Scale

‘The are just making it all up’, link here (time stamp: 10:12).

‘Doing it on purpose’ (time stamp 11:50).

The statements were referring to the financial ‘media’.

The ability of the media to manipulate the herd with such ease is shocking and disappointing at the same time.

One has to wonder, was it like this in 1929?

Moving on to the A.I. mania, we have yet another potential high in the SOXX … today or tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Tomorrow, is Fibonacci Day 89, from the April 7th, lows.

Another set-up, with Fibonacci target.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279