Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Carvana’s Top & Reversal

July 25, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

‘Evidence of A Struggle’

Yesterday’s Carvana breakdown, was ‘Day 13’, of a week’s long struggle at recent highs.

We’re about thirty minutes before the open; CVNA, is up in the pre-market, set to test the breakdown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence, the car market has (already) imploded. The latest installment is here.

‘Delinquencies at the highest, ever’

From a price action standpoint, anything can happen.

CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.

Risk Defined

From a risk standpoint on a short, it’s well defined; yesterday’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note that CVNA, earnings are set for next week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector XLF … Set-Up

July 22, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XLF

In The Pattern

Depending on price action, we’ll get into the long-term view of Finacial Sector XLF, later.

For now, on the hourly timeframe, we’ve seen it before: Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With about forty minutes before the open, it looks as if XLF, will come back up to resistance for a test.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Hourly

Spring and Up-Thrust, are labeled ‘S’ and ‘U’ respectively.

In other markets, the SOXX posted lower overnight; it’s trying its best to rally pre-market, into a higher open.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Top

July 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Last High?

Is the SOXX, calling us to say, ‘this is it?’

Of course, that’s unknown until it’s all over.

What we do know, price action posted a new high as outlined in the last update, link here.

At this point (11:50 a.m., EST), we’ve retreated from that high and are congesting at lower levels. So far, so good, for a short (not advice, not a recommendation).

We also know, shown on the weekly chart, we’re at Fibonacci Week 55, from the all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

The SOXX penetrated highs of July 15th, as forecast.

We’re in Up-Thrust position after having completed a potential spring-to-up-thrust, set-up.

Positioned short, SOXX-25-07, with a very tight stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, One More High?

July 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 3 Comments

At The Extreme

If the SOXX, continues to pressure the resistance area noted below, there’s a possibility for another new high (not advice, not a recommendation).

As yesterday’s post said, the objective is (for trading actions) to be directed by the market itself.

At this point, the SOXX is not going down, but not materially up, either.

However, we do have a minor spring set-up on the hourly shown below, suggesting the probability for another high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Short position, SOXX-25-05, exited and on the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

BAC … Fits The ‘Pattern’

July 17, 2025 By in BAC, BAC-25-02, Dr. Elder, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Dr. Elder … ‘Actions Should Be Automatic’

As implied by Dr. Alexander Elder, years ago, when a trading professional sees a particular set-up, the ‘actions should be (somewhat) automatic’.

Looking at the set-up of Bank of America (BAC), what’s the trading action?

We have the repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust, labeled as ‘S‘, and ‘U‘.

Price action retreated from the top (blue line) resistance area, and has now come up for a test.

Bank of America BAC, Weekly

Coming back up for a test, reduces risk.

Positioned short this equity, as BAC-25-02, with initial stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mid-Session Update

July 1, 2025 By in David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO-25-01, TZA-25-03, WMT-25-03, Wyckoff

Position Summary

Watching it all, in real time. 🙂

All positions stopped out.

However, that’s not the end of the story.

Miners, GDX, have just posted a Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Short this sector via DUST as DUST-25-05, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tractor Supply … Tests Reversal

June 30, 2025 By in David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO, Wyckoff

Once Again, The Pattern Repeats

There’s nothing exciting about Tractor Supply Co., (TSCO), except, maybe, the repeating pattern.

Looking at the chart on a close basis, we have a potential Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tractor Supply Co., Daily Close

At this point, it appears that volume is contracting on the upward test.

However, we’re still two-hours to go, before the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279