Category Archives: XBI

First Semis, … Now, Biotech

July 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Next Set-Up

With the SOXX, reversal apparently at hand, (SOXX-25-05, active), we can continue to the next potential set-up.

As a reminder, this site’s focused on ‘strategy’ first; what’s likely to happen in a big way. Then, tactics, and after that, focus.

Moving on, we have this post from nearly two months ago; forecasting potential price action for biotech, XBI.

Clicking on the link above, reviewing the chart, let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

We’re close to the target and potential stops.

Pushing above resistance, does not guarantee a reversal.

It only means there’s likely to be instability; reading that price action, if/when it happens, will help determine the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market Action & Stops

June 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, WMT, WMT-25-02, XBI

Watch The Highs

All three short positions discussed in last night’s update are trading lower in the pre-market session.

On a percentage basis, Carvana (CVNA) is down the most by about -1%.

At this point, the trading plan is simple; stops for all three are at, or near, the last session highs (not advice not a recommendation).

Moving on, we have an index that may be getting interesting, biotech XBI.

Back in late May, was this post.

Let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

A casual inspection of the chart shows price action ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci retrace levels.

For the past two weeks, XBI has drifted lower without decisive conviction.

It could continue its path to lower levels.

However, for a dynamic, sustained move, we need some type of catalyst, like taking out the (potential) stops at the location noted.

On the sidelines for now (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Targets

May 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Where The Stops, Are Hiding

Let’s say, you’re a big player in the markets, with deep pockets.

Your timeframe is medium, to long-term, months-to-years.

If you were short biotech XBI, where are your stops?

That’s what we’ll look for, in the chart below.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The un-marked chart, first.

Where does the eye go to (naturally) as a ‘safe’ location for stops on a short position?

Now, for where the stops may be hiding … and of course where we want to wait for a short (entry) opportunity.

The location shown is just below the 61.8%, retrace level and price action congestion.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Basic Materials … The Set-Up

April 21, 2025 By in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, Positions, Wyckoff, XBI, XLB-25-01

Under The Radar

Nobody talks about Basic Materials, so let’s take a look.

Like the rest of the major indices, the past few weeks have seen a downdraft, followed by a retrace.

The important part of this sector has been the attempted breakout and failure.

We’re using SPDR, ETF, XLB, as the proxy for DJUSBM.

Basic Materials XLB, Daily

For students of Wyckoff, it’s a typical ‘Up-Thrust’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Opened short XBI, as Trade XBI-25-01, with stop at the day’s session high, 80.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 2

April 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Back To The Daily

Yesterday, the 3-Day chart was the best fit for biotech, XBI.

After Thursday’s action was complete, now the daily looks better.

Either way, we’ve got a tight stop (nearly hit, yesterday), and a trendline; decisive violation of either one, indicates an exit of (short biotech) LABD-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

There’s so much going on with this chart.

We’re at the point where the downtrend either continues, or morphs into a different scenario.

Even as this post was created (late Thursday), the after-hours session continues slightly lower for XBI; an encouraging sign, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Squeeze

April 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Biotech’s, Tale of Two Channels

What happens after the squeeze?

If it really was a squeeze, then demand evaporates, and prices (tend to) collapse (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of biotech, not only did we have a potential squeeze, two separate trading channels appear to be in effect.

Biotech, SPBIO, Daily

Both channels have contact points, Fibonacci 5 Days apart.

The more aggressive channel (grey dashed lines) has yet to be fully confirmed.

At this point, it’s essentially one contact on the right side.

Positioning

Remaining short this sector with LABD-25-08.

The stop has been moved (up on LABD) down to the XBI high, at XBI 76.24; effectively 10.24 on LABD, (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Next Leg (Down)

April 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

A-B-C, Correction

The market hits just keep coming for biotech.

First, it was this (RFK Jr., nominated, then confirmed), then it was this, and now, the latest is this.

While the financial press toys with the idea ‘the worst is over‘, (which might be true), with biotech, price action itself says it may be preparing for its next leg … lower.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re drilling down to the hourly; it shows (as of 12:24 p.m., EST) a Fibonacci a-b-c, corrective retrace.

Wave ‘a’, was the massive short squeeze.

Wave ‘b’ was a test of the lows; then on to wave ‘c’, the same (net) distance as wave ‘a’, making it a 1:1 (potentially complete) corrective move.

Also note the ‘alternation’.

Wave ‘a’, was essentially straight up. Then, wave ‘c’ alternates and is a labored slow process, ratcheting higher.

We’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short, Trade: LABD-25-08, with stop at the LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bottoms, Tops & Tests

April 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Biotech Bottoms, Gold Tops, Miners Test

Bear markets, different rules.

Huge, swift declines, followed by face-ripping, short-covering rallies.

Yesterday was a day just like that.

When price action is moving quickly, one of the dangers is being hypnotized.

Biotech Bottoms

Looking at the biotech data from yesterday, the XBI, posted a bottom of, wait for it, 66.66.

Where have we seen that before?

As the prior update stated, the LABD-25-06, trade was exited in the pre-market yesterday. XBI was at support and that was the reason for exit.

At the time it was unknown, later in the session, we’d get (potentially) the largest short-covering rally in history.

Currently (as of 8:03 a.m., EST), XBI, is trading slightly lower.

Depending on the regular session action, the short trade (via LABD) may be re-opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold Tops

For gold (GLD), large volume, wide price swings can be signs of trouble.

Yesterday was huge volume and price bar, resulting in a ‘Force Index’ reading of ‘257.8’-mil.

That does not necessarily mean anything until it’s put into context.

That last time there was a similar high-energy move was March 8th, 2022; a ‘Force’ reading of 243.1-mil, that put in a top, not exceeded for nearly 2-years.

Miners Test

Then, the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

For this update we’ll look at the Juniors, GDXJ.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

There was a breakdown (with gap) from the wedge. That breakdown has been tested.

Along with the test potentially complete, the price gap from last Friday’s action (4/4/25) has essentially been closed.

Positioning

Short the GDXJ, via JDST as Trade JDST-25-07; the stop is (equivalent to) a few ticks above yesterday’s (56.18) GDXJ high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Nears Support Levels

April 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Trades Closed in Pre-Market

As biotech XBI, nears support levels (charts forthcoming), all short trades have been closed in the pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade LABD-25-06, was closed just after 7:00 a.m., EST with a profit slightly above +27%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Inside Action’

April 8, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Holding The High

Early yesterday, biotech XBI, got stretched into an apparent squeeze.

That squeeze printed a high at 75.86, which as of this post (10:43 a.m., EST) is holding.

The chart shows what’s technically called ‘inside action’ or an ‘inside bar’. Today’s trading is taking place within the range of yesterday’s bar.

Biotech XBI, 4-Hour

There’s a lot going on.

The expectation was for this morning’s open to post above yesterday’s high; it didn’t happen.

As of this release, price action remains tight, not pushing significantly higher or lower.

Tight action typically precedes a directional move.

Positioning

With the above conditions in play, a short has been re-established (LABD-25-06) with a very tight stop … one, or two ticks, above yesterday’s XBI, high. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279