Bank Bust Ahead?

October 18, 2025 By in Banking, Credit Destruction, Positions, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 5 Comments

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?

Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:

Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.

The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.

“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.

Wyckoff Had The Edge

The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.

The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.

Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:

“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”

The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.

Focus Amidst The Chaos

The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.

Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.

All of which brings us to the chart.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).

Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Expectations, Next Week

Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.

The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Melt-Down … The Start?

October 17, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, Positions, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge

Deja Vu

Has the melt-down smoke cleared, or was this week just the first Dominoe to fall?

The most recent post on the banking sector is here.

From that, we had:

“Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed …”

The initial (nascent) downtrend was broken to the upside; short position XLF-25-07, exited with a small gain.

Then, we had this week.

The sidebar on yesterday’s post, shows a new short; XLF-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The update was about plans before the close. In the final minutes of trade, we have Uber short; UBER-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss both positions with charts over the weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber … The Wheels Come Off

October 16, 2025 By in Banking, Gold & Silver, SLV, GLD, Positions, XLF, Ed Dowd, KRE, TRV, TRV-25-01, XLF-25-08 1 Comment

Waiting for The Close

Something’s happened to the banks, XLF, KRE; both down hard.

Gold, GLD has launched parabolic, typical of blow-off moves.

Meanwhile bonds are higher (Ed Dowd told us to watch those), insurance companies hit and then, there’s Uber.

Uber, UBER, Daily

Uber at all-time highs for weeks before breaking down.

It’s now penetrated support.

There’s likely to be an attempt to ‘spring’ off that penetration (expected to fail).

If it’s going to happen, watch the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I., By The ‘Numbers’

October 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-16 1 Comment

Fibonacci ‘Day 8’

Don’t look now, but today is Fibonacci ‘Day 8’, from the SOXX high, on October 6th.

Let’s also include the panic low last Friday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from that same top.

Of course, the Fibonacci count does not guarantee anything. It just lets us know so far, the SOXX is respecting the sequence.

Then we have the chart.

Last Friday was possibly the largest ever, downward thrust energy for the SOXX (data back to October 2019).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note the thrust energy ‘bookends’.

Not covered in this update, is the condition of A.I., ‘leader’, Nvidia.

There’s so much going on with that one. 🙂

After an attempted breakout during the past twelve trading days, it’s now lower, back in the trading range (bearish).

It’s also established a nascent downtrend line (bearish).

Today’s open was above yesterday’s high. As of this post (11:53 a.m., EST), it looks ready to print a new daily low.

If that happens, it’s ‘outside down’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo … Last Gasp?

October 14, 2025 By in Banking, David Weis, Positions, Up-Thrust, WFC, WFC-25-01

Proverbial ‘Gut-Check’

For those fortunate enough to have the David Weis video on ‘Trend Reversals‘, he discusses a particular market characteristic:

The ‘Gut-Check’

Instead of attempting to describe the phenomenon, we’ll just show what a (potential) move looks like with Wells Fargo, below.

Wells Fargo, WFC, Daily

There it is.

Is it a reversal, or a ‘gut-check’ test?

It’s important to note, the ‘Up-Thrust (reversal)’ location was all-time highs for WFC.

Remember, 86.66?

That post is here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Monday’s Damage Assessment

October 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, BIS, DRIP, DRV, DUST, DXD, FAZ, IBB, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, QID, SDS, SOXS, SPBIO, TZA, XBI

Where’s The Crash?

The YouTube weekend ‘consensus’ was for a Monday morning massacre.

So, where is it?

Bert Dohmen, said it best in this interview, (paraphrasing), ‘If everybody agrees with our analysis, then we have to get a new analysis’.

Monday’s First 15-Minutes

After the first 15-minutes of trade, an assessment was made on the ‘Leveraged Inverse Funds’.

The point being, since this site’s maintaining a short position in biotech (via LABD), how did it fare when compared to the other funds?

After the first 15-minutes of trade, the table at left shows all inverse funds being tracked, in the red, some painfully so (like SOXS, JDST, DUST).

All red, except for the two biotech’s, LABD and BIS.

Those two funds are short vehicles for biotech XBI and IBB, respectively.

The XBI index has not (yet) made a new daily low.

Conversely, the inverse fund LABD, has not made a new daily high.

With that said, the stop on LABD-25-13, remains at last Friday’s low of 33.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Post-Mortem

October 12, 2025 By in China, David Weis, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Up-Thrust

What Do You See?

We’re heading straight into winter.

Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.

So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?

Wrong

That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.

David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):

“What do you see?”

Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily

The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).

The green line is a minor support area.

This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.

That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.

U.S & China Nat-Gas

Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.

The short answer is no.

For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.

With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Blow-Up … A Review

October 11, 2025 By in Bonds, Dow 30, Natural Gas, IBB, UNG, DIA, Wyckoff, TLT, SPBIO, WFC, $SPSIBI, XBI, CDNS

In The Aggregate

Whether or not we’re at the ‘anxiety’ point shown on the chart, is yet to be seen.

Markets are open this coming Monday, except for bonds, adding to the weekend angst.

Reviewing The (past) Week

Posts over last week, even the weeks before, showed from a Wyckoff perspective, something was about to happen.

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready, link here.

When The Bonds Spike, link here.

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66, link here.

Biotech (short) Set-Up, link here.

Top of The Dow, link here.

In retrospect and in aggregate, it’s now obvious something was amiss.

The ‘Art’ of Wyckoff

Wyckoff technique is more art than science, more intuitive than calculated, more ephemeral than certain.

We’ll get into what happens when logic overrides that art, in the next update; Nat-Gas UNG.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top of The Dow

October 10, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Where The Risk is Least

The ‘risk’ on a short position in the Dow (DIA), is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s very early in the pre-market (7:48 a.m., EST), DIA is trading slightly higher (at 464.34), but anything can happen between now and the open.

Massive Margin Call

The Trillion Dollar margin call has to come from somewhere; maybe yesterday’s action in the metals and miners is going to force everyone’s hand.

Silver spiked, outside-down, on heavy volume.

With that said, on to the chart.

Dow 30 DIA, Daily

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.

The chart also shows an apparent volume climax, a typical ‘last gasp’ market action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Set-Up

October 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, IBB, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

Breakout Into Resistance

Both biotech funds, IBB, and XBI, are now in an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

In each case, the ETFs have pushed through a long-established trading range, straight into resistance.

The last update focused on less liquid IBB, because it was not known if heavily traded XBI, would push through its trading range (being the weaker of the two).

Since that initial update, both indices are now above their trading range.

Of course, what happens next is the question.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The blue line is long established resistance.

The black dashed line is the top of the trading range and the up-thrust condition.

At this point anything can happen.

XBI, could reverse immediately or grind its way along, dissipate momentum, or even move higher.

We’re at the point where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279